Investidores querem auditor a fixar preço da OPA à Martifer

[GAB]

SOFTWARE:

FREE Trade Position Size Calculator

This is FREE Money Management software designed to calculate trade position sizes according to various money management models. The software is free to use and utilises several highly successful but often, not known techniques. This software is ideal for all investors and traders who wish to start using advanced portfolio management techniques to become more efficient, profitable traders.

Download Now!

License: Freeware
Price: Free
OS: Win98,WinME,WinNT 3.x,WinNT 4.x,Windows2000,WinXP,Windows2003
File Size: 180 KB
Company: Anfield Capital Pty Ltd
Version: 1.1
Last Update: 2004-08-30

Aqui fica um link para o DOWNLOAD:http://download.lockergnome.com/download/101064

[GAB]

Abordando o tópico de uma forma mais estruturada aqui fica ( uma queda de 50% de um titulo, para ir á mesma cotação de partida ; "estaca zero"-break-point representa depois uma subida de 100% )

ARTIGO:

Position Size
In Jack Schwager's Market Wizards book in which he interviews some of the world's top traders and investors. Practically all of them talked about the importance of money management, and position size. Here are a few sample quotes:

"Risk management is the most important thing to be well understood. Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half." -- Bruce Kovner

"Never risk more than 1% of your total equity in any one trade. By risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade. Keeping your risk small and constant is absolutely critical." -- Larry Hite


John was a little shell-shocked over what had happened in the market over the last three days. He'd lost 70% of his account value. He was shaken, but still convinced that he could make the money back! After all, he had been up almost 200% before the market withered him down. He still had $4,500 left in his account. What advice would you give John?

Perhaps your answer is, "I don't know. I don't have enough information to know what John is doing." But you do have enough information. You know he only has $4,500 in his account and you know the kind of fluctuations his account has been going through. As a result, you have enough information to understand his money management -- the most important part of his trading. And your advice should be, "Get out of the market immediately. You don't have enough money to trade." However, the average person is usually trying to make a big killing in the market, thinking that he or she can turn a $5,000 to $10,000 account into a million dollars in less than a year. While this sort of feat is possible, the chances of ruin for anyone who attempts it is almost 100%.

Ralph Vince did an experiment with forty Ph.D.s. He ruled out doctorates with a background in statistics or trading. All others were qualified. The forty doctorates were given a computer game to trade. They started with $10,000 and were given 100 trials in a game in which they would win 60% of the time. When they won, they won the amount of money they risked in that trial. When they lost, they lost the amount of money they risked for that trial.

Guess how many of the Ph.Ds had made money at the end of 100 trials? When the results were tabulated, only two of them made money. The other 38 lost money. Imagine that! 95% of them lost money playing a game in which the odds of winning were better than any game in Las Vegas. Why? The reason they lost was their adoption of the gambler's fallacy and the resulting poor money management.

Let's say you started the game risking $1000. In fact, you do that three times in a row and you lose all three times -- a distinct possibility in this game. Now you are down to $7,000 and you think, "I've had three losses in a row, so I'm really due to win now." That's the gambler's fallacy because your chances of winning are still just 60%. Anyway, you decide to bet $3,000 because you are so sure you will win. However, you again lose and now you only have $4,000. Your chances of making money in the game are slim now, because you must make 150% just to break even. Although the chances of four consecutive losses are slim -- .0256 -- it still is quite likely to occur in a 100 trial game.

Here's another way they could have gone broke. Let's say they started out betting $2,500. They have three losses in a row and are now down to $2,500. They now must make 300% just to get back to even and they probably won't do that before they go broke.

In either case, the failure to profit in this easy game occurred because the person risked too much money. The excessive risk occurred for psychological reasons -- greed, the judgmental heuristic of not understanding the odds, or in some cases, the desire to fail. However, mathematically their losses occurred because they were risking too much money.

What typically happens is that the average person comes into most speculative markets with too little money. As a result, these people are practicing poor money management just because their account is too small. Their mathematical odds of failure are very high just because they open an account that is too small.

Hundreds of thousands of hopefuls open up their speculative accounts yearly, only to be lead to the slaughter by others who are happy to take their money. Many brokers know these people don't have a chance, but they are happy to take their money in the form of fees and commissions. In addition, it takes many $5,000 accounts to feed a single multi-million dollar account that consistently gets a healthy rate of return.

Look at the table below. Notice how much your account has to recover from various sized Drawdown in order to get back to even. For example, losses as large as 20% don't require that much larger of a corresponding gain to get back to even. But a 40% drawdown requires a 66.7% gain to breakeven.

Drawdown Gain to Recover
5 Percent 5.3% Gain
10 Percent 11.1% Gain
15 Percent 17.6% Gain
20 Percent 25% Gain
25 Percent 33% Gain
30 Percent 42.9% Gain
40 Percent 66.7% Gain
50 Percent 100% Gain
60 Percent 150% Gain
75 Percent 300% Gain
90 Percent 900% Gain

and a 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain. Losses beyond 50% require huge, improbable gains in order to get back to even. As a result, when you risk too much and lose, your chances of a full recovery are very slim.

[GAB]

Sobre o que o que o forense coloca penso que se refere ao MANAGEMENT DO RISCO... que tb faz parte do money management.

Sobre tal e se for activo que se segue...penso que existe uma "MANEIRA SIMPLES" que nos pode dar uma ideia do que deve-mos assumir , ou seja a PROPORçÃO dos ganhos( saida no objectivo-target) sobre a perdas( caso de atinjir stop-loss), UM RÁCIO Ganhos /perdas, donde UM R = 3, significa que se um trade atingir o target pré-estipulado se ganha 3 vezes do que se perde se atingir o stop-loss(proteção de perdas)

Penso que um racio assim simples é suficiente e que depois o investidor deve tb ter em conta outros factores que fazem parte da sua rotina de investimentos bolsistas(seguir o comportamento do activo) que é a volatilidade do activo , liquidez e aspectos fundamentais-resultados e outros que acharem necessários para analisar o risco de investir nesse activo.

[GAB]

Para se INVESTIR em bolsa deve-se ter um valor "Consideravel" para constituir uma CARTEIRA, para se poder aplicar algumas regras de "Management".

( em todo o trade entra-se em desvantagem, a perder; devido a comissões de correctagem de C/V)

As coisas SIMPLES são mais faceis de memorizar, de aplicar e por vezes mais rentáveis....

Uma forma será de dividir carteira em 10, ou seja uma entrada num activo com 10% da carteira, donde uma subida-queda de 10% da cotação representa 1% da carteira.
A partir daqui essas partes podem ser usadas em activos diferentes ou outras estratégias( tendo em conta saidas parciais)ou outras.

EX:
Num momento interessante, uma entrada de 30% da carteira para sair parcialmente nalgum ponto interessante com 3 saidas de 10% ou 2 de 15%,( dependendo de varios aspectos inerentes ao tipo de activo, seu comportamento, momentum mercado , etc etc etc), em pontos distintos e protegendo-se parcialmente para o caso de estar errado na saida(cotação continua sentido desejado - continua-se dentro embora parcialmente) ou proteção para se estiver certo na saida ter feito algumas mais valias no ponto "mais alto" e outra num ponto mais baixo etc etc etc.

Pode tb aplicar-se outros casos, exemplo, num activo mais arriscado ou num "ponto mais delicado " entrar somente com 10% e depois com quebra de ponto"interessante" reforçar com mais 10% - dependendo das estratégias etc etc etc etc...

Outras estratégias podem existir mas penso que dividir por 10 é interessante pois mentalmente é facil de detectar o IMPACTO QUE TEM o DESENROLAR sobre a carteira.... e que como proteção em caso de "estar-mos errados" nas decisões tb é aceitavel...


etc etc etc

Bons negócios....

[BOV]

Caro LPP,

Importava-se de me explicar isso melhor, como se eu fosse mto burro... (se calhar até sou )

Cpts

[LPP]

Uma pergunta final sobre Money Management, porque não tem sido analisado este assunto com a devida e merecida atenção (na minha opinião!):

Quais as (outras) formas de investir no mercado com controlo do risco?



Quando qualquer um de nós toma uma posição no mercado tem em atenção três coisas e mais uma:

- Qual o valor total que tem para investir (cash).
- Qual a % desse valor que vai ARRISCAR no trade.
- Qual o valor do stop de protecção.

e...

- Quantas unidades vai comprar de títulos (acções), contratos (futuros), etc.


Este valor (P) é o position size falado noutro tópico.



Veja-se um exemplo:

Cash = 98.000 um (unidades monetárias)
cotação = 60 um

Cash a arriscar (amount of your account balance you're willing to lose per trade) = 1%

logo: Cash risk = 98000 x 0,01 = 980 um

Protective stop - 10 um (10 unidades abaixo dos 60, ie, 50 um)

POSITION SIZE = 980 / 10 = 98 títulos
VALOR de P = 98 x 60 um = 5880 um (valor a investir)


Veja-se como não se arriscam as 5880 um investidas, mas apenas 980 um, no caso pessimista do protective stop ser activado!
Ora 980 são 1% do capital total inicial.

Por isso o VALOR do método apresentado num tópico anterior.


Mas, se alguém tiver uma solução melhor é favor colocar aqui!


Cumpts.