Venda do Novo Banco pode representar 8% do M&A na banca europeia este ano

[Pata-Hari]

A AT é um instrumento muito mais ao alcance do público em geral, logo, é normal que assim seja.

Para que se considere que se está a usar AT basta estar a olhar para umas médias móveis para se poder catalogar um investidor como utilizador de AT. Mas para olhar para as contas das empresas e saber ler correctamente, não basta fazer uma cedeira de finanças numa universidade...

[Cem]

Será que o tempo me está a dar razão e a confirmar que a AT se está a impor em definitivo à AF?
Esta pergunta é para espicaçar o amigo Incognitus, aquelas velhas discussões...
Bons negócios a todos,
Cem

[Electrico]

Vejamos o k dizem. Artigo interessante e realidade a constatar.

Candlestick chic

Investors are relying more and more on technical analysis. It's one trend that's likely to continue.
August 26, 2003: 2:46 PM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - With the market locked in a trading range that could come straight from a textbook on technical analysis, chart watching has become Wall Street's favorite pastime.

Ever since the beginning of June, the S&P 500 has been bouncing around in a tight channel, never able to push higher than 1,011, never dipping below 962. The range has become so pronounced that opportunistic traders have taken to betting against the market whenever it brushes up near the high end, and buying whenever it slips to the lows.

Plenty of other investors are simply watching and waiting to see what happens, because technical analysis says that when the S&P breaks out of its range, the following move (which will come in whatever direction the breakout is) will be big. When the move happens, they'll be there to chase it -- magnifying the move in the process.

It's an odd turn to see people paying such close attention to chart patterns. In years gone by many investors considered technical analysis, which seeks to divine future performance from past patterns as little more than mumbo jumbo. After the experience of the past few years that's changed.

"I'm referred to as a fundamentalist -- a person who cares about company earnings and where the economy is going -- but the truth is I'm a closet technician," said First Albany chief investment strategist Hugh Johnson. "I've learned something as we've moved through the bear market: The last people to find out about a problem are research analysts and fundamentally oriented strategists."

And among the first were technicians. When problem stocks like WorldCom began breaking down -- the result of savvy investors getting out while the getting was good -- they were able to "see" that something new was happening and get out, too.

Technical analysts have also been making good money this year, as stocks have risen.

"It seems to me that this is a market where fundamental analysis has fallen flat," said Brett Gallagher, head of U.S. equities at Julius Baer Investment Management. "If you're looking for higher quality companies whose fundamentals are on the mend, you're not catching this market."

The reason: The market has become even more anticipatory than usual, and the stocks that have been doing best are shares of outfits like Corning (GLW: Research, Estimates) -- whose long-term business prospects still seem quite doubtful. Critics might say that this is a case where investors' embrace of technical analysis is leading stock prices away from fundamental reality. But John Bollinger, a technical analyst who heads up Bollinger Capital, thinks that looking at stocks based on fundamentals is a losing bet these days.

"Stock prices got divorced from fundamental reality in the late 1990s, when valuations simply went beyond any sustainable rational level," he said. "The name of the game now is that stocks are waiting for fundamentals to catch up with them."

This will lead to a range-bound market, where stocks will make big swings but, because valuations are still excessive, not go much of anywhere -- a great environment, said Bollinger, for technical analysis to shine. Once earnings catch up with prices again, fundamental investing will begin to matter again, but Bollinger doesn't think this is going to happen for some time.

Julius Baer's Gallagher agrees.

"I think the market is significantly overvalued, but I'm more and more convinced that we don't get a purge and instead go into a sideways range with big swings," he said.

If Gallagher were someone like Warren Buffett, and didn't have a client base that's incredibly focused on quarterly performance, he'd just keep on investing based on the fundamentals, knowing that even though he might miss in the short term, in the longer run he'd make better money. But since he isn't Buffett, he has to be willing to try and take advantage of the swings, trading more often than he used to and, increasingly, listening to what the technical analysts have to tell him.