Bourke conta com “todos” no “novo capítulo promissor” do Novo Banco

[Cem pt]

Diretamente do site atual do Larry Williams, https://www.ireallytrade.com/ , destaco a interessante passagem abaixo para quem se dedica ao day trading...


If you are new to the world of trading...

First, let me welcome you to futures trading and tip my hat to you venturing where most people are afraid to go! The world of trading futures is a strange one with many myths about instant wealth, and losses. There is a great deal to learn.active trader dec 2002

Futures and commodities are not like stocks. We don't have shares, we have futures contracts... We can control $100,000 of a commodity for as little as $3,000, without any interest charges on the $97,000 by using leverage. But, with leverage comes additional risks. That knife cuts both ways. Commissions are low and commodities are real. They go up and down because people must have wheat, corn, gold, crude oil, etc. There are no Stock market "Enron Games" played here.

Google my name. You'll find lots of people wanting to teach to you trade futures and commodities like me or claim they trade like me. Lots of people with lots of claims.

A quick tour of the net will expose you to many offers of instant wealth and easy money. I'll be the first to tell you it is just not that way. Don't fall for the hype. Like any other profession or business it takes knowledge and skill to do well. I can teach you how to trade. I can teach you the trading skills and techniques you need. I don't just give you the trading tool box, I give you the trading tools as well, as my students will tell you.

I think there are 3 steps for a person new to futures and commodities trading.

1) Learn the basics of how to trade, Can you tell if a futures market is ready for a big move? My course answers this, showing you my approach to position. No day trading here; you can have a job and still do this spending maybe 30 minutes a day. This is what most people should be doing.

2) Swing trading. No day trading yet. Look to get in and out of a trade in 3 to 5 days. But, I caution you, this is not where you begin. You need to know, and have traded, the basics first.

3) Short term trading. OK, you want to day trade? This is the final step --- but I will tell you it is the hardest, the most difficult, and the riskiest way to trade. It is the dream of so many, to day trade, but it is usually a nightmare. I don't think you are ready for day trading until you have been trading for at least a year or more.

When I teach people how to day trade I put my own hard cash at risk, so you can really see how it works. I have traded $1,000,000 in front of students and gave them back 20% of the profits. Day trading is not for most people. All the Forex and day trading stories that you have read about (making fortunes) are hustles. Please be very careful; use your common sense. Trading stocks, futures or Forex is very risky please read the disclaimers we have posted all over this site.

If you have already begun to trade futures and commodities...

If you are not yet making money, what do you do? Go back to the basics! My bet is that you have not learned what moves markets... you have looked at charts and indicators, but those things (Technical Analysis) by and large are mumbo-jumbo, which is why you are not making money. Just because you have been trading futures and commodities does not mean you know what is really going on.

Can I help you? I sure think so... I suspect I've trained more traders than anyone else in this business.


BN

[LTCM]

Oops HE did it again

Former Long-Term Capital Management executives have started a firm that will connect Chinese investors with international hedge funds, as turmoil in the world’s second-largest equities market spurs demand for overseas assets.

John Meriwether is an early financial backer of Shanghai-based Sycamore Investment Services, said Chief Executive Officer Jeff Li, who formerly worked as a strategist at LTCM. Huang Chi-fu, who co-headed the Asia office of LTCM’s hedge fund that collapsed in 1998, is one of the founders of Sycamore and also an investor, Li said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... und-demand

[LTCM]

[daniel__]

En total la cifra acumulada de negociaciones en ETFs durante 2015 ha crecido un 50,3% y se ha situado en 173.079 millones de Euros. - referente a espanha

50%?!

[LTCM]

UNCONSTRAINED BOND FUND, n. A mutual fund, specializing in bonds, that places no limits on the number of ways in which it can provide disappointing results to its investors.

– Jason Zweig, The Devil’s Financial Dictionary

[Artista Romeno]

Caro LTCM:

Já deste uma olhada nisto?

http://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Move-Beati ... 1511466146

Acho que ias achar piada!

(O tipo não é estúpido de todo! )

Pois eu aconselho a leitura para estes casos deste livro abaixo, por um simples motivo a amostra está muito enviesada, foi a melhor lição que aprendi na minha cadeira de economia I, cuidado com estatisticas graficos e afins eu posso muda-las para mostrar o que eu quero

http://www.amazon.com/How-Lie-Statistic ... 0393310728



"Clenow uses a momentum investing approach that has been tested historically and empirically for many years. He discovered in his own testing that momentum stocks perform well in side-ways markets, as long as volatility is reasonable. He notes that in bear market that correlations of the portfolio components start approaching 1. That is why it is necessary to use a long-term market indicator to identify when to be out of the market to avoid big losses . He uses the 200-day simple moving average on the S&P 500 to determine whether the market climate is a buy (index above this moving average) or not.

To determine which stocks to invest in, Clenow uses an annualized exponential regression line for ranking the stocks and focuses on the slope of the line to measure momentum. He recommends recalculating the slope over the past 90 days, and ranking the stocks In addition to slope he adds two more criteria – price greater than a specific moving average (found in book), and any price gap greater than a certain percentage (found in the book) over the last 90 days to disqualify highly volatile stocks. He buys the highest ranked 20 to 25 stocks with an allocation of shares based on their volatility. Clenow buys smaller positions of more volatile stocks which he calls risk-parity allocation. In general for equity momentum portfolios, he recommends a bi-weekly or monthly rebalance, but he feels a weekly rebalance is necessary to eliminate laggards – stocks dropping in the rankings.

The author shows the performance of his momentum strategy for 1999 through 2014 is 12.3% compared to the S&P 500 buy-and hold of 5.2%. His strategy has a maximum drawdown of 24% compared to 55% for the S&P. Approximately 123 pages of the book are devoted to separate year-by- year results of the strategy with commentary, so that the investor can see that the strategy does not beat the S&P 500 every year, but overall it does over the period with less risk. This year-by-year evaluation is very informative and provides insight into how the strategy worked in bull and bear markets. Particularly noteworthy was the minimal losses of the strategy in the big bear markets of 2000 (+9.6%), 2001(-0.7%), and 2002 (-3.0%), and 2008 (-8.5%) compared to the benchmark. That is when this strategy excels and that is the reason for using a non-emotional approach"

atendendo a que este comentario possa ser verdadeiro o autor pega no S&P no final de um bull market longuíssimo em que o mercado estava altamente esticado nas valorizações, e usa apenas 15 anos como amostra, há ai livros como o stocks for the long run que facilmente desmontam esta teoria

eu não digo que o momentum investing não tenha vantagens como reduzir o drawdawn, mas falar numa disparidade tão grande de retorno

no entanto gosto de ouvir o contra e vou por este livro na minha wish list a espera de ser comprado um dia destes http://www.amazon.com/Dual-Momentum-Inv ... 0703011_17, entretanto vou ler os papers do tipo se gostar compro o livro, este tipo de papers são interessantes, o problema é os custos de transação, mas muito mais importante o facto de numa estratégia de buy and hold a fiscalidade ser diferida

edit li os papers e fiquei convencido com o dual moment investing

[Quico]

Caro LTCM:

Já deste uma olhada nisto?

http://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Move-Beati ... 1511466146

Acho que ias achar piada!

(O tipo não é estúpido de todo! )

[LTCM]

Investors who pulled an estimated $52.7 billion from the Pimco Total Return Fund this year may feel like freeway drivers who changed lanes only to see themselves falling behind traffic.

The erstwhile largest bond mutual fund outperformed 89 percent of peers in the first calendar year since the ouster of its former manager Bill Gross

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... gross-exit

Nada mau, para um moribundo.

[LTCM]

How Do People Play The Trading Game?
Or: How 13,000 People Turned 108 Real Hours of Their Lives Into 6.7 Trillion Imaginary Dollars.

http://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015- ... /analysis/

[LTCM]

[LTCM]

[ZeNovato]

Uma vez que não encontrei informação no fórum sobre este assunto fiz uma pequena pesquisa sobre a questão que coloquei acima e reparei que se os etf forem domiciliados na irlanda ou Luxemburgo não fazem retenção de imposto dos dividendos e só pagamos os 28% cá.
Será que o ishares stoxx europe 600 ucits etf também não retém mesmo sendo domiciliado na Alemanha?
Do meu ponto de vista deveria reter 15%.
Só mencionei este assunto porque quem usa carteiras deste género e gosta de receber dividendos (como eu ) o facto de não se fazerem retenções no pais de origem é uma vantagem. Por exemplo, em vez de usar o etf da vanguard VGK que me retém 30% ou 15% dos dividendos o da ishares é vantajoso.

[ZeNovato]

Boas tardes a todos,
Mais uma vez gostaria de contar uma situação que se passou comigo num ETF e que não compreendi. Talvez haja alguém por aqui que tenha o mesmo ETF ou semelhante

Á uns dias cometi uma loucura. Já andava de olho neste etf e decidi comprar uma parcela pequenina (que nem vou contabilizar em termos de carteira). Comprei por ser da bolsa alemã (pelo menos diz XETRA) e para ver como se processava em termos de pagamento de dividendos e poder comparar com os restantes etf que tenho mas americanos.
O ETF é o "ishares stoxx europe 600 ucits etf".
A minha corretora é a orey e tenho como base o saxobank e na altura do pagamento de dividendos (os valores que indico não são reais) fizeram uma coisa que me surpreendeu. Recebi 10€ em dividendos brutos aos quais retiraram 26% (ou seja recebi na realidade 7,4€).
O curioso é que no dia seguinte depositaram me à ordem os 2,6€ que deveriam ser a retenção no pais de domicilio.

Resumindo.... recebi os dividendos sem retenção e líquidos que depois tenho de declarar cá.
É normal o que me aconteceu? Nos americanos normalmente retêm 30% por não ter acordo de dupla tributação.

[LTCM]

[LTCM]

Over 20 years, the U.S. has clearly been nothing particularly special return-wise. Over the past 10 and 5 years it has been more impressive, in the top quartile of countries and about 0.6 standard deviationsabove the mean. And, under the surface, it looks somewhat more impressive still over the last decade.

If you look at the other countries that have done very well since 2010, almost all of them had a lousy 5 years prior – Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, and Japan were strong performers recently but in the bottom half over 10 years. The lone exception was Denmark, where a single stock, Novo Nordisk, was a huge driver of the returns in both periods.

So the U.S. has been both a strong performer over the last decade and a consistent one. You could see that as a reason why people might want to tell stories about U.S. exceptionalism, but it does not, by itself, count as a lot of evidence that the U.S. truly is exceptional. So what would make the U.S. exceptional?

[LTCM]

Portfolio Analysis Results (Jan 2007 - Nov 2015)

[LTCM]

Também me pareceu ("há seis anos" )..

Nada como ter um professor entre os leitores do tópico.

professores há muitos

O Quico é mesmo professor.

[Quico]

Nada como ter um professor entre os leitores do tópico.

Como já foi demonstrado, várias vezes, essa ideia da "década perdida" não se aplica na estratégia aqui defendida.

(De nada! Acontece aos melhores.)

Quando me referi à "década perdida" não me estava a referir à estratégia aqui defendida.
Tal como a estratégia aqui defendida também não é a de "buy & hold" (embora pareça aos incautos).

[rsacramento]

Também me pareceu ("há seis anos" )..

Nada como ter um professor entre os leitores do tópico.

professores há muitos

[LTCM]

Zerohedge à seis anos a arremessar bitaites ambíguos.

Também me pareceu ("há seis anos" ).
Tinha ideia que a verdadeira "década perdida" nos mercados desenvolvidos tinha sido 2000 a 2010. Não de 2007-2008 para cá. Só me vens confirmar essa ideia.

Nada como ter um professor entre os leitores do tópico.

Como já foi demonstrado, várias vezes, essa ideia da "década perdida" não se aplica na estratégia aqui defendida.

[Quico]

Zerohedge à seis anos a arremessar bitaites ambíguos.

Também me pareceu ("há seis anos" ).
Tinha ideia que a verdadeira "década perdida" nos mercados desenvolvidos tinha sido 2000 a 2010. Não de 2007-2008 para cá. Só me vens confirmar essa ideia.

[LTCM]

Buy-And Hold? - In 8 Years, Developed Market Stocks Have Gained Nothing

Zerohedge à seis anos a arremessar bitaites ambíguos.

[Quico]

Buy-And Hold? - In 8 Years, Developed Market Stocks Have Gained Nothing

[LTCM]

Momentum in Futures Market
In this note, we survey the academic literature and provide empirical evidence
related to time-series momentum strategies in the futures markets.

• We find strong time-series momentum patterns in monthly and weekly frequencies across 47
diverse futures contracts. In particular, we find significant return persistence in the first 12 months
which partially reverses, consistent with behavioural theories of early under-reaction and delayed
over-reaction.

[LTCM]

...más de la mitad de los fondos de renta variable domiciliados en Polonia (58%) o Suecia (56%) podían considerarse closet trackers al cierre de 2010. Con un 42%, España completa el ‘top 5’ de los países con mayor proporción de gestión pasiva encubierta, por detrás de Finlandia (44%) y Bélgica (43%).

http://www.fundspeople.com/noticias/fon ... ana-224672

Fundos Pickers para o Principado de Liechtenstein depressa e em força!