Preço das casas dá maior salto de sempre no arranque da garantia pública

[um peao]

O DAX quebrou uma LTA no gráfico de 4 horas que já vinha desde o início da subida. Primeiro sinal de inversão de tendência.

Não tenho aqui o meu gráfico do Dax para ver como a LTa está no meu mas ao não usares a escala logarítmica no teu gráfico a LTa muda. Mas mesmo ignorando esse detalhe se fizeres passar a linha pelos mínimos das velas de toque em Maio a LTa mantém-se válida. Acho permaturo estar a dizer que a LTa está quebrada ou que há inversão de tendência.

A grande barreira entre o bull e o bear no DAX

Tenho ideia que no gráfico logarítmico o Dax ainda não está a tocar nessa LTd. E considero essa uma barreira mas não A grande barreira bull bear.

[andren]

A grande barreira entre o bull e o bear no DAX

[- GOE -]

Existe neste momento uma grande parte dos investidores que aguardam ansiosamente uma correcção significativa para reentrar no mercado, simplesmente pelo facto de muita gente a aguardar, ela pode simplesmente nem acontecer...

Enquanto alguns esperam retracções de 10% / 20%, o mercado vai subindo..

Há muito cash nas sidelines, que caso o mercado caia abruptamente para mínimos deve estar pronto a reentrar no mercado, e se o mercado não cái terão que entrar a estes níveis, continuando a alimentar o rally..

[Navete]

Midas, olha que no grafico dos futuros a 10m, ainda não furou.

Está agora em luta para não descer.

[Midas]

O DAX quebrou uma LTA no gráfico de 4 horas que já vinha desde o início da subida. Primeiro sinal de inversão de tendência.

[razalas]

Ok, Marco António, muito obrigado pela resposta.

Tambem creio que para além da questão dom petróleo, houve na realidade uma bolha que rebentou, assim como estou perfeitamente de acordo quando diz que as descidas foram exageradas.

Estou neste momento neutral com possibilidade de descida.

Para subir mais, terá de lateralizar muito mais na medida em que ao que parece, estamos numa zona de grande imnportancia e que poderá definir a fronteira entre o bull e o bearish.

[MarcoAntonio]

Já agora,

...o petróleo paulatinamente lá vai indo para níveis que à não muito eram considerados incomportáveis.

Isso não vai ter repercussões no consumidor? (70% da economia) e por conseguinte nas empresas, e logo de seguida não aumentará o desemprego? e o incumprimento bancário? e etc? e etc?

E não terão de elevar as taxas de juro para que a inflação não vá por aí acima?

São perguntas de um leigo, claro.

Mas gostava de saber a opinião de quem sabe.

De leigo para leigo, a amplitude de valores para o Petróleo que a Economia suporta é muito maior do que muitas vezes se dá a entender ou do que, à priori, nos parece concebível.

O petróleo e sem exagero, tenho perfeitamente em mente que já havia quem considerasse que era incomportável o petróleo a 70 ou 80 dolares, há não muito tempo atrás, algures na fase inicial da subida na presente década. Quando chegamos a esse valor era incomportável a 100 ou 120 e chegados a esses valores era incomportável a 150 e quase chegados a esses valores era incomportável a 200 e havia quem falasse nos 500 dólares já.

Mas concretamente o que é que aconteceu de visível e notório entre os 30 ou 40 dólares e os 140 dólares.

Concretamente aconteceu muito pouca coisa!

A utilização e exploração da matéria prima manteve-se dentro da linha que vinha tendo. A actividade económica não alterou brusca ou brutalmente. A utilização do automóvel no dia a dia (uma das principais aplicações do petróleo senão a mais visível) praticamente não teve efeitos visíveis (curiosamente a retracção no consumo só ocorreu já o petróleo estava a baixar!).

Racionalizando isto, como toda a economia vive em torno do Petróleo, esta vai-se adaptando ao custo do mesmo. O custo do petróleo tem repercursões no custo de outros produtos e serviços e mesmo até no custo das alternativas ao petróleo!


Quanto aos valores actuais, sem querer dizer que "eu acertei" mas apenas para esclarecer que os vejo como perfeitmente normais (logo perfeitamente suportáveis pela economia) há uns meses atrás era a ordem de valores para os quais eu cria que este se iria encaminhar a médio-prazo. Também reafirmo que não tenho a expectativa de vê-lo a breve prazo nos valores topo do ano passado.

Eu já expliquei o porquê da minha opinião mas posso sintetizá-la de novo: os valores do ano passado foram na minha opinião o resultado de uma Bolha Especulativa que se deu num contexto de mercado e num contexto económico que entretanto já mudou. Não creio que possa vir a curto-prazo a ter novamente a mesma expressão. Por outro lado, baseado em diversas opiniões (nomeadamente dos países produtores), no valor a que se encontravam os Futuros há alguns meses atrás e no range de valores entre o máximo (exagero da subida) e mínimo depois na correcção (exagero na correcção), eu sou levado a acreditar que essa coisa pouco tangível do "valor justo actual" do petróleo andará talvez nessa zona entre os 60 e 90 dolares.

Como é óbvio, posso estar errado...

[razalas]

Já agora,

...o petróleo paulatinamente lá vai indo para níveis que à não muito eram considerados incomportáveis.

Isso não vai ter repercussões no consumidor? (70% da economia) e por conseguinte nas empresas, e logo de seguida não aumentará o desemprego? e o incumprimento bancário? e etc? e etc?

E não terão de elevar as taxas de juro para que a inflação não vá por aí acima?

São perguntas de um leigo, claro.

Mas gostava de saber a opinião de quem sabe.

[Midas]

A justificação desta puxada é igual às outras todas que acontecem nos finais de sessão patrocinadas desta vez pela JPM. Andam a alternar entre a JPM e GS, curiosamente as empresas cujas cotações estão aos níveis pré-crise.
Penso que esta tentativas de manipular o mercado vai acabar por fracassar. Também o tentaram no mercado de obrigações e está a ser um desastre, já que a semana passada os preços crasharam e esta semana continua a festa.
Cuidado com o mercado americano... mais parece um mercado de terceiro mundo.

Está a começar de ser ridículo o que se passa e até o BOFA está a comentar isso mesmo. Os americanos estão a ser alvo de chacota na Ásia e vão continuar a ser. O facto deles não deixarem os mercados funcionar normalmente vai provocar o efeito inverso ao que eles pretendem.
O ano passado também tentaram aguentar o mercado até Outubro, depois caiu 40% em 1 mês...

Intraday SPY Indication Of Interest Update
Posted by Tyler Durden at 3:08 PM
Down market got you feeling, well, down? JPM Red Bull (with or without coca plant additives) gives you (and the market) wings.

In other news, the Bberg SPY INDEX IOIA is now macro'ed to JPY.

The house of Dimon doesn't even care anymore that it SPY "micromanagement" looks like daylight rape and murder in central park. Can the Fed/Jim Simons please just say what the FV for the S&P500 is so we can just fast forward to there?

Laughable man, Hah.

Some "market" commentary out of BofA

"Some odd volume patterns in the ETFs on this pop higher: firstly we're not seeing ANY high touch follow through from clients, and secondly the only volume appears to be in SPYs (and to a lesser extent IWMs and QQQQs), which has seen a huge spike in activity compared to the rest of the day. Most sector and intl ETFs, even bellweathers like EEM, XLF, XLE, seeing very little trading since 3.20pm.

30 Year Mortgage Passes 5%
Posted by Tyler Durden at 2:47 PM
Investors can not wait to sell mortgages so they can buy the brand new iPhone. Speaking of brand new, BB, if you are reading this, how about some fresh QE: after all what's a few trillion $ between friends. Mom and pop have to be buying this whole recovery story after all.

[Dilson Costa]

O que aconteceu para esta arrancada louca?

Foi mais uma novela

" U.S. stocks rose, erasing an earlier tumble, after Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the economy will probably emerge from recession by September. "

[dvck]

O que aconteceu para esta arrancada louca?

Podemos sempre arranjar uma notícia para justificar o movimento do mercado. Na bloomberg indicaram que o Krugman disse que a recessão pode terminar em Setembro.

[PJBM2]

O que aconteceu para esta arrancada louca?

[jabreu3]

um autentico touro este SP ....
Estão a ver???

[Midas]

Rates Continue To Inch Up As Higher Rates Could Spell Disaster For The Housing Market
By Gareth Soloway on June 8th, 2009 2:45pm Eastern Time
I often talk about how the government and Federal Reserve have no idea about how their policies can hurt the bigger picture. We may be seeing this start to take effect. As the Federal Reserve prints trillions of dollars, the bank bailouts have been made and stimulus packages continue, rates have start to move high quickly. As the US$ gets diluted, rates must rise as foreign countries, who buy our debt demand more in return for taking the risk.

The problem for US consumers begins with home refinancing. As rates rise, people no longer get cheaper rates thus will not refinance. That means their payments must stay the same and they run the risk of falling behind and foreclosure. In addition, with higher rates, people no longer can afford the monthly payments that come with that mortgage payment. This is major since the whole issue with this economy has been the housing collapse. Watch rates, it will become a major disaster soon if they continue to rise.

[creepy]

parece faltar ainda alguma coisa... mas ás vezes parece que não estamos a ver bem o filme... é o caso...!!!

cumprimentos

[Midas]

By Rachel Beck, AP Business Writer on June 6th, 2009 3:50pm Eastern Time
NEW YORK (AP) -- The Federal Reserve announced a $1.2 trillion plan three months ago designed to push down mortgage rates and breathe life into the housing market.

But this and other big government spending programs are turning out to have the opposite effect. Rates for mortgages and U.S. Treasury debt are now marching higher as nervous bond investors fret about a resurgence of inflation.

That's the Catch-22 threatening to make an awful housing market potentially worse and keep the economy stuck in a funk. Kick-starting the economy requires higher spending, but rising rates mean fewer Americans will be able to refinance their home loans. And some potential buyers will be shut out of the market by higher monthly payments they won't be able to afford.

To understand how this is all connected, you have to think like a bond trader. Inflation is their enemy because it means the purchasing power of the dollars they receive when bonds eventually are paid off will be diminished. The only question is by how much.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes, a benchmark for home mortgages and other consumers loans, jumped from 2.5 percent in March around the time of the Fed announcement to as high as 3.7 percent in recent days as signs that efforts to stabilize the financial system and economy were starting to pay off. And 30-year mortgage rates jumped more than a quarter-point this week to 5.29 percent, the highest level since December, Freddie Mac reported.
"If the meltdown continues in the bond market, then mortgage yields will soon be at levels that choke off refinancing activity," said economist Ed Yardeni, who runs his own investment firm. "Even worse, they could abort any necessary recovery in home sales and prices."

Yardeni coined the term "bond vigilantes" in 1983 to describe how traders took matters into their own hands when they felt the Fed wasn't doing enough to fight inflation, which was running at an annual rate of more than 3 percent at that time.

So what has set off the vigilantes this spring, at a time when the consumer price index is down at an annual rate of 0.7 percent?

One explanation is that bond investors anticipate a greater supply of government debt being sold to fund federal spending. Investors are also increasingly fearful that the trillions of dollars the government will need to borrow in the coming years to finance the various stimulus programs will lead to a new bout of inflation.

The White House estimates that the government will rack up an unprecedented $1.8 trillion budget deficit this year -- more than four times last year's all-time high.

"The bond market is calling the Federal Reserve out," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst at Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Fla. "Investors are saying that the Fed can't just print money out of thin air to finance a massive deficit."

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged Wednesday in congressional testimony that large budget deficits could threaten financial stability by eventually eroding investor confidence and endangering the economy's prospects for long-term health.

"Even as we take steps to address the recession and threats to financial stability, maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance," Bernanke told the House Budget Committee.

That kind of talk is meant to calm bond investors' nerves. It also shows the quandary faced by Bernanke and other federal officials. They need to hold down interest rates through massive government spending at the same time they have to deal with worries over how that spending could damage the economy over the long term.

After Fed policymakers this spring said they would buy billions of dollars of government debt and more than $1 trillion of mortgage securities, 30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 4.78 percent in April, the lowest since Freddie Mac started surveying rates in 1971.

Sales of new and existing homes began to trend higher. Mortgage refinancings also jumped, allowing borrowers to lock in lower rates. Fee income from this activity helped lift profits at many battered banks and gave consumers more disposable income to spend, which helped lift their confidence about the economy's prospects. All that was good for the nation's businesses.

But now, surging mortgage rates are threatening to undermine all that. Seventy percent of refinancing activity could be knocked out as rates close in on 5.5 percent, according to Mark Hanson, a managing director at the independent research firm Field Check Group of Menlo Park, Calif.

That's because homeowners wouldn't get much of a benefit if a refinancing only reduces monthly payments a tiny bit while they are stuck paying closing costs that typically run about 2 percent of the loan amount.

Also, many homeowners who wanted to refinance didn't lock in the super-low rates in April when the refi boom took off. "Half the deals in the pipeline are dead," Hanson said. "People were applying to refinance to improve their situation, but now they are seeing it won't be much improved."

All this means that even though mortgage rates are still low by historical standards, many of the trends that seem to be pointing to economic recovery in recent months could be undone fast.

Rachel Beck is the national business columnist for The Associated Press. Write to her at rbeck(at)ap.org

* Rachel Beck, AP Business Writer
* On Saturday June 6, 2009, 8:40 am EDT


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ALL-BUSIN ... et=&ccode=

[maximo_]

A big picture do dow jones em ouro é algo a ter em conta. Poderemos até não ter um fundo tão baixo como o de 32 ou de 80 mas é de esperar algo próximo disso.

[creepy]

midas ja tinha lido....

tive quase para o colocar aqui...

com algumas pequenas difernças vai de encontro ao que t tinha dito...

ou querem o uds ou querem o stock market...

com tantas acções na mão vão ser os mesmos que compraram que agora vão ter (querer!!!) que despejar...


abraço

[Midas]

Creepy tirei de um fórum americano um comentário sobre um mercado da componente macro que se ajusta muito ao que temos conversado. Fica abaixo.

MACT Today 02:08 PM
IMHO, the dollar has bottomed...look at TNX/TBT...they are saying the Chinese will no longer buy our debt...they wisely are buying copper, gold, and other commodities for future infrastructure plays.., things with real value...Chinese are wise hence they laughed at Geithner last week when he claimed the US debt their holding are safe...thats how ridiculous this has become....students laughing at our Sec of Treasury!

Our govt will start to talk down this mkt, because they cannot have the dollar/treasuries collapse right now..it will one day but just not now , its too early for that...the govt cannot control longterm rates or the US dollar as the forex and bond mkt is way too large...but they can control the stock mkt for the short and int. term...they can because the ones who control the govt/congress/presidency are the ones who put them there---yes GS...just look at the GS cronies in office and its pretty obvious...the elite bankers own political system...that is why Martin Armstrong is the only american to be held in jail for 7 yrs without a trial because he exposed GS and their relationship to our govt in particular.

Why else would Blankfein be at the AIG implosion meeting to make sure they get their 10B so they too wouldnt go bankrupt...the only way I can see money getting back into the USD and treasuries is to be scared into it...brown will be the new green when it comes to shoots soon...whether its now or at 1050 on SPX it doesnt matter, the end is close either way.

And I dont buy the inflation argument saying stocks and real estate have to be propped up with expansion of the money supply...it didnt work like that in the 1970's and it wont work like that now...a hyperinflationary depression is what I see...commodities/gold up and stocks and real estate down...I have written many times why I dont feel the true money supply is expanding as the banks are contracting consumer credit and they are hoarding their money(I should say our money since they wouldnt have anything if it were not for the bailouts).

Here are some reality checks.

1. the banks are still broke...they are not making any money...they are not loaning out their money...they are taking the billions of tax payers money in bailouts and buying treasuries and their own debt with it...all the profits last qtr was from accounting rule changes, dumping bad debt on the feds, selling lucky gains in other company stock, buying own debt and stock to drive up prices so they can do secondaries...these games will not continue.

2. eastern debt implosion starting right now...dominoe effect to take place soon...look for Austria and Sweden to take a big hit...the PIGS(Portgugal, Italy, Greeece, Spain) will cont to deteriorate...UK, Ireland, France/Germany all in big trouble as they were levered twice as much as US banks..they are a yr behind us so they will have some nasty surprises ins store for us soon...we the US took them down last yr, they will return the favor later this yr....looking for many many more debt downgrades.

3. Anyone else notice CRE being sold(and there isnt much) for 35% off the top already...within 2-3 yrs, it will sell for over 50% from the top...most of these CRE projects bought over past 5-8 yrs with 1-2% down...many projects very much under water now and it will be time to re-finance this yr...well we all know that will not happen...General Growth Prop will be the first of many.

4. the alt-A and int only's will reset this yr...the govt moratorium to foreclosures are over now...have you seen the foreclosure numbers now?..they are exploding...guess what, you can drop my int rate to minus 5% if I dont have a job I still cannot pay.

5. official unemployment rate is 9.4% now, higher than expected....shadowstats.com has real unemployment rate at 20% now!...5 more % and were at GD levels...getting serious dont ya think?

6. the govt now has 100T in obligations with respect to our national debt, SS, Medicare, pension obligations...I guarantee you these debts cannot be met unless a loaf of bread becomes 5000.00.


I dont know what will trigger the next wave down but something will...it will take news of some type to get things rolling...looking for break of 923 first, then 900 needs to go and we will have trend change.

I could post 20 charts showing why we should top now but this has been the case for over a month now...until we get confirmation of trend change, have patience...the supply demand curves for SPX triggered a sell signal on 5/7 and reversed and gave buy signal again on 5/27...I am seeing divergences all over the place again(and i re-emphasize again)...I want to see the supply demand curve(currently starting to curve down again) drop sharply and get below zero line before i fully commit to short side...GL.

[VMPH]

vmph,

tens razão...

aconselho-te a teres na tua plataforma os 3, até para ires comparando...

i - sp500.i
ft - es
cfd - sp500

i- meramente informativo do indice em cash, abre as 14,30h e fecha ás 21h, não pode ser negociado, max. foi 951,75 quase no início da secção de 6ª feira

ft - ESc1 - futuros, c1 é o continuo não negociável, depois tens também várias maturidades (ESM9- contrato de junho) que podem ser negociadas.. maximo foi 957,50. abertos 23h por dia

cfd - quase igual aos futuros mas com um spread maior.. é negociável 20h por dia no caso do sp500 e o máximo também foi 857,5

cumprimentos

Obrigado pela dica, creepy.

Na tabela da plataforma tinha não só a indicação do valor dos CFD (SP500.I como símbolo), como de futuros (ESM9) para comparação e agora adicionei, creio, o outro que referiste. O código deste último é qual? SP500.I e tem como logo o de EQ? É que, além dos símbolos FUT (Futuros) e CFD (Contratos), só encontro, referente ao SP500, o de EQ.

Já agora, não sei se este será o tópico para isso, mas pergunto duas coisas:

1) que indicadores (tendência, oscilações, médias móveis, etc.) usam nos gráficos?

2) que livros, sejam eles em inglês ou em português, recomendam para quem quer perceber gráficos e o funcionamento de ondas?

Uma vez mais, muito obrigado.

[LUSITO]

Mais um artº que me parece interessante - "lipstick on a pig" estéticamente não parece que fique lá muito bem.

Mas já se prepara com pompa e circunstância o anúncio pelo Governo da devolução dos fundos públicos concedidos aos maiores Bancos US.

Milagres da cosmética utilizada ...

------


June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Big banks in the U.S. say they’re on the mend. The five largest were profitable in the first quarter, rebounding from record losses for the industry in the fourth quarter. Share prices have jumped, with the KBW Bank Index doubling since March 6.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, after “stress testing” 19 banks on their ability to withstand a worsening economy, declared in early May that Americans can be confident in the banks’ stability and resilience. Wells Fargo & Co. and Morgan Stanley were among banks raising $43 billion in new capital since then through share sales.

“With our capital and assets, stressed as they have been, we can go back to focusing all our attention on managing our business and restoring value,” Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said after Geithner’s examinations were completed.

The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.

The government probably wants to win time for the banks, keeping them alive as they struggle to earn their way out of the mess, says economist Joseph Stiglitz of Columbia University in New York. The danger is that weak banks will remain reluctant to lend, hobbling President Barack Obama’s efforts to pull the economy out of recession.

‘Bogus’ Profit

Citigroup’s $1.6 billion in first-quarter profit would vanish if accounting were more stringent, says Martin Weiss of Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter, Florida. “The big banks’ profits were totally bogus,” says Weiss, whose 38-year-old firm rates financial companies. “The new accounting rules, the stress tests: They’re all part of a major effort to put lipstick on a pig.”

Further deterioration of loans will eventually force banks to recognize losses that their bookkeeping lets them ignore for now, says David Sherman, an accounting professor at Northeastern University in Boston. Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc. in Chicago, says the government stress scenarios underestimate how bad the economy may get.

The accounting rule changes that matter most for the banks came on April 2, when the Financial Accounting Standards Board gave companies greater latitude in how they establish the fair value of assets. Lawmakers, including Representative Paul Kanjorski, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, had complained that existing mark-to-market standards worsened the financial crisis.

Debt Valuation

Along with that change, FASB also let companies recognize losses on the value of some debt securities on their balance sheets without counting the writedowns against earnings. If banks plan to hold the debt until maturity, they can avoid hurting the bottom line.

At Citigroup, the recipient of $346 billion in fresh capital and asset guarantees from the government, about 25 percent of the quarterly net income came thanks to the debt securities rule change, the bank said.

Another $2.7 billion before taxes came from an accounting rule that lets a company record income when the value of its own debt falls. That reflects the possibility a company could buy back bonds at a discount, generating a profit. In reality, when a bank can’t fund such a transaction, the gain is an accounting quirk, Weiss says.

Citigroup also increased its loan loss reserves more slowly in the first quarter, adding $10 billion compared with $12 billion in the fourth quarter, even as more loans were going bad. Provisions for loan losses cut profits, so adding more to this reserve could have wiped out the quarterly earnings.

Wells Fargo

Without those accounting benefits, Citigroup would probably have posted a net loss of $2.5 billion in the quarter, Weiss estimates. In the five previous quarters, Citigroup lost more than $37 billion.

Wells Fargo also took advantage of the change in the mark- to-market rules. The new standards let Wells Fargo boost its capital $2.8 billion by reassessing the value of some $40 billion of bonds, the bank said in May. And the bank augmented net income by $334 million because of the effect of the rule on the value of debts held to maturity.

Wells Fargo spokeswoman Julia Tunis Bernard declined to comment, as did Citigroup’s Jon Diat.

The higher valuations Wells Fargo put on its securities probably won’t last, as defaults increase on home mortgages, credit cards and other consumer and corporate lending, Northeastern’s Sherman says.

Fed’s Optimism

“These changes will help the banks hide their losses or push them off to the future,” says Sherman, a former Securities and Exchange Commission researcher.

The Federal Reserve, which designed the stress tests, used a 21 percent to 28 percent loss rate for subprime mortgages as a worst-case assumption. Already, almost 40 percent of such loans are 30 days or more overdue, according to Tavakoli, who is the author of three primers on structured debt. Defaults might reach 55 percent, she predicts.

At the same time, the assumptions on how much banks can earn to offset their losses are inflated, partly because of the same accounting gimmicks employed in first-quarter profit reports, Weiss says.

“There’s a chance that it might work,” Columbia’s Stiglitz says of the government’s attempt to boost confidence. “If it does, then they’ll look like the brilliant general. But all these efforts also bank on the economy recovering and housing prices not falling too much further. Those are not safe assumptions.”

Indeed, while the government and accounting rule makers try to help the banks look their best, they may make the U.S. economy worse. As long as lenders are stuck with bad loans, they can’t provide new money to consumers or corporations to fuel a potential recovery. The banks may look pretty, but they’ll be zombies until they clean up their books.

(Published in the July issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine.)

To contact the reporters on this story: Yalman Onaran in New York at yonaran@bloomberg.net.

Bons negócios

[creepy]

vmph,

tens razão...

aconselho-te a teres na tua plataforma os 3, até para ires comparando...

i - sp500.i
ft - es
cfd - sp500

i- meramente informativo do indice em cash, abre as 14,30h e fecha ás 21h, não pode ser negociado, max. foi 951,75 quase no início da secção de 6ª feira

ft - ESc1 - futuros, c1 é o continuo não negociável, depois tens também várias maturidades (ESM9- contrato de junho) que podem ser negociadas.. maximo foi 957,50. abertos 23h por dia

cfd - quase igual aos futuros mas com um spread maior.. é negociável 20h por dia no caso do sp500 e o máximo também foi 857,5

cumprimentos

[VMPH]

Boa tarde!

A minha participação não vai adiantar muito na excelente troca de argumentos que se vê por aqui, pois sou um novato e só de há tempo para cá é que estou a dar os primeiros passos na negociação de CFDs, mas quero apenas saber uma informação: qual foi o máximo atingido na 6ª? Pergunto por ter lido aqui e visto noutros sítios que anda nos 951 (951.33, creio), mas na plataforma onde negoceio, Trading Pro, apareceu 957.46.

Obrigado e continuação da bela esgrima de argumentação.

[salvadorveiga]

não axo que chegue lá antes do verão de 2010... tipo 1 ano... dependendo quando começar...

penso que vai ser género W5 extended... daquelas que parecem que não acabam... género serpente...

quero ver se subscrevo o nelly... se ele acha que isto vai ser directo eu respeito... acho exagerado... apesar das ondas C serem como nós sabemos...

gostava de perceber melhor a contagem dele...

pelo que tenho visto... alguns analistas que seguem Elliott... quando não vêm um claro 12345.. desatam a fazer abc's e wxy e z... Vêm o mercado todo em zigzag..

quero subscrever para ver a análise dele diáriamente...

abraço

n vais perceber nada...

eu n percebo nada tambem... ele adopta elliott mas fez umas cenas mais cientificas, e quando se olha para os graficos dele vez tudo menos elliott !

Eu tambem acho exagerado, mas pa ele dizer isso e' pq ve uma forte possibilidade... andavamos nos em Agosto nos 1300 pontos e ele dizia que no final de Setembro iamos ter um crash e perfurariamos os 900 pontos.

Tambem me parece esticar demasiado a corda ser tudo pa 2009...

trupe, nao e' a economia que tem de estar de rastos...

A economia segue o mercado financeiro e nao o contrario.

Se realmente formos aos 300-400 sim a economia vai estar de rastos...mas da maneira que eu vejo sera' uma consequencia e nao a causa...

as noticias ou a economia sao "indicadores" lagging relativamente ao mercado...

[creepy]

luis.live,

não andavas aí a reclamar por um fino?!

independente do estado do mercado podiamos combinar isso antes do mercado dar a volta...

mesmo com a possibilidade do short o ambiente nunca é o mesmo!!!

vamos lá beber essa num destes fins de semana...

abraço