Preço das casas dá maior salto de sempre no arranque da garantia pública

[- GOE -]

Midas, só uma questão se quiseres responder..

A tua posição neste momento (Bear nos USA) permite-te abrir posições longas sobre alguns títulos no mercado Americano, ou estás completamente descrente em qualquer recuperação dos mercados ?

Ou sejas, no fundo estás 100% Bear e não abres posições longas, ou vais misturando posições longas com curtas neste momento ?

Bons negócios

[EuroVerde]

Reparem que o SP500 está ao nivel do começo do ano 2009. Quem entrou na lateralização pode estar-se a queimar. Estou 100% liquido.

[Midas]

The Fed Might Have Painted Itself into a Corner
Mises Daily by Frank Shostak | Posted on 6/12/2009 12:00:00 AM


A growing concern for Fed policy makers is a weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. The price of the euro in US-dollar terms climbed from a low of $1.27 in November last year to around $1.41 in May and $1.43 in early June — an increase of 12.6% from November. The major currencies dollar index fell to 78.89 in May from 82.3 in April — a fall of 4.1%. If the declining trend in the US dollar were to consolidate, this could cause foreign holders of US-dollar assets to divest into non-dollar-denominated assets and precious metals. This in turn could spark another financial crisis.

For instance, on June 6, 2009, Russia's President Dmitri Medvedev said that American financial policy had made the dollar an undesirable currency for reserves held by central banks.

Also China — the largest holder of US-dollar reserves — has voiced its misgivings with the Fed's massive money pumping, which is seen as an important reason behind the recent weakening in the US currency. Note that in March, China's US-dollar reserves stood at $1,953.7 billion — an increase of 2.2% on the month before. The value of the China's holdings of US Treasury securities was $767.9 billion in March against $744.2 in February and $490.6 billion in March last year.

If the US dollar weakens further, Fed policy makers will be forced to slow down monetary pumping in order to placate foreign investors. A visible strengthening in commodity prices is also likely to put pressure on the Fed to slow down the money printer. In May, the CRB commodity price index shot up by 13.8% from the month before.

Some harsh critics of the Fed, such as John Taylor (the inventor of the Taylor rule), are of the view that the Fed should already be embracing a tighter stance to prevent the repetition of the interest-rate policy of Greenspan's Fed, which was kept at a very low levels for too long. According to John Taylor, Greenspan's low-interest-rate policies had been a major contributing factor for the present economic crisis. (Greenspan had lowered the federal-funds rate from 5.5% in January 2001 to 1% by June 2003 and kept the rate at 1% until June 2004. Note that currently the federal-funds rate is between zero and 0.25%.)

There is almost complete agreement among various commentators that the massive monetary pumping by the Fed since September last year was necessary to prevent a plunge in aggregate demand.

As a result, it is held, the Fed has prevented the economy from falling into a severe recession. According to this way of thinking, the increase in money supply strengthens the demand for goods and services, which in turn strengthens the economy. A stronger economy in turn feeds back into the demand and this strengthens the economy further.

Following this logic, whenever the economy is starting to gain strength and can stand on its own feet, there is no need any longer for all the pumped money. In fact keeping all the pumped money can be detrimental to the economy's health. (Keeping all the pumped money can only lay the foundation for various distortions and a higher rate of inflation some time in the future — so it is held.)

It follows that, once it has been established that the pumped money has managed to place the economy on a healthy growth path, the pumped money can be safely removed without any bad side effects whatsoever. (Again, according to this way of thinking, money pumping is required as long as the economy cannot stand on its own feet.)

The Illusory Economic Recovery
Most Fed officials and various economic commentators are of the view that the US economy might be rapidly approaching a stage where it is possible to take out a large chunk of the recently pumped money without causing any harmful side effects in regard to economic activity.

Seasonally adjusted construction spending increased by 0.8% in April after rising by 0.4% in March. Pending sales of previously owned homes shot up by 6.7% in April, the biggest monthly gain since October 2001. Manufacturing activity also shows signs of strengthening. The ISM index rose to 42.8 in May from 40.1 in the month before. The new orders component of the ISM jumped to 51.1 in May from 47.2 in April. It seems that the economy is on its way to standing on its own feet.

What most commentators and Fed policy makers don't tell us is that monetary pumping has given rise to various bubble activities. These bubble activities are supported by real savings that have been diverted from wealth generators by means of pumped money. Also note that the pumped money has prevented the removal of various old bubble activities. Hence, contrary to popular thinking, the massive money pumping has actually weakened the economy's bottom line.

If the Fed were to start taking some of the newly pumped money from the economy, i.e., to curb the money-supply rate of growth, this would hurt various old and new bubble activities. It would set in motion an economic bust. (Remember, bubble activities are not self-funded; they require money "out of thin air," which is employed to divert real savings to them from wealth generators.)

Summary and Conclusions

A major concern for Fed policy makers is a visible weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. If the Fed were to allow the dollar to fall further, the US central bank runs the risk that major holders of US-dollar assets will divest to nondollar assets. This could push long-term rates and mortgage rates higher, thereby igniting another crisis. If, in order to defend the dollar, the Fed were to start taking some of the newly pumped money from the economy, i.e., to curb the money supply rate of growth, this will hurt various old and new bubble activities and set in motion an economic bust. Even if the Fed were to decide to tighten its stance just slightly, given the current strengthening in the growth momentum of economic activity, this could visibly weaken the growth momentum of monetary liquidity, thus posing a threat to the stock market. It seems that the Fed might have painted itself into a corner

[Midas]

Midas sem querer ofender mas mais em tom de brincadeira será que nunca pensaste em mudar o teu nickname para Midas o Anti-Americano ou Bin Laden Portugues? É com alguma tristeza que dia após dia leio os teus comentários em relaçao ao meu «país». Sou nascido em Portugal mas neste momento o meus País é os Estados Unidos da América...Como diz Eduardo Lourenço, o nosso País não é aquele onde nascemos mas sim aquele que nos acolhe.
No meu ultimo post referi que você deve ter alguma sequela em relação aos EUA. Talvez perdas avultadas nao faço ideia mas não é nada normal a sua postura perante a maior Economia do Mundo...Já pensaste que se os States cairam o mundo também cai?? enfim...
Já o disse e volto a repetir...Os Estados Unidos da América foram serão e irão continuar a ser a médio prazo a MAIOR economina do MUNDO.

God Bless you
God Bless the United States of America

Nem era para comentar isto mas aqui vai...

Eu não sou anti-americano, sou anti é instituições fraudulentas que existem para enganar e roubar o povo americano, como o FED o é e foi para isso que foi criado, como está documentado em vários sítios.
Agora até há uma petição que vai seguir em frente graças aos votos necessários para finalmente auditarem o FED. Sabias que desapareceram 3 triliões que ninugém sabe onde foram parar?
Se calhar sou mais pró-americanos que tu, já que me preocupo em desmistificar algumas coisas que se passam no teu país e em denunciar medidas que vão e estão a destruir o teu país.

Se calhar sou mais americano que tu pois preocupo-me em estudar economia a sério e não aquela dos analistas de meia tigela que são pagos pelo governo e bancos para dizerem que está tudo às mil maravilhas e negaram até às últimas a recessão... e agora que a reconhecem dizem que já passou.

Se vais ao médico e ele te diz que tens um problema sério o médico está a ser anti-paciente? Preferes que ele te diga que está tudo bem e basta tomar um xarope que passa?

Pensa o que é ser anti alguma coisa. Acredita que pessoas como tu, que metem a cabeça debaixa da terra, engolem o que a CS e Obamas lhes dizem é que é ser anti-americano, pois estão-se a borrifar para o que se passa à volta. Pensa um bocado e tira a cabeça debaixo da terra.

[Midas]

The Fed Might Have Painted Itself into a Corner
Mises Daily by Frank Shostak | Posted on 6/12/2009 12:00:00 AM


A growing concern for Fed policy makers is a weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. The price of the euro in US-dollar terms climbed from a low of $1.27 in November last year to around $1.41 in May and $1.43 in early June — an increase of 12.6% from November. The major currencies dollar index fell to 78.89 in May from 82.3 in April — a fall of 4.1%. If the declining trend in the US dollar were to consolidate, this could cause foreign holders of US-dollar assets to divest into non-dollar-denominated assets and precious metals. This in turn could spark another financial crisis.

For instance, on June 6, 2009, Russia's President Dmitri Medvedev said that American financial policy had made the dollar an undesirable currency for reserves held by central banks.

Also China — the largest holder of US-dollar reserves — has voiced its misgivings with the Fed's massive money pumping, which is seen as an important reason behind the recent weakening in the US currency. Note that in March, China's US-dollar reserves stood at $1,953.7 billion — an increase of 2.2% on the month before. The value of the China's holdings of US Treasury securities was $767.9 billion in March against $744.2 in February and $490.6 billion in March last year.

If the US dollar weakens further, Fed policy makers will be forced to slow down monetary pumping in order to placate foreign investors. A visible strengthening in commodity prices is also likely to put pressure on the Fed to slow down the money printer. In May, the CRB commodity price index shot up by 13.8% from the month before.

Some harsh critics of the Fed, such as John Taylor (the inventor of the Taylor rule), are of the view that the Fed should already be embracing a tighter stance to prevent the repetition of the interest-rate policy of Greenspan's Fed, which was kept at a very low levels for too long. According to John Taylor, Greenspan's low-interest-rate policies had been a major contributing factor for the present economic crisis. (Greenspan had lowered the federal-funds rate from 5.5% in January 2001 to 1% by June 2003 and kept the rate at 1% until June 2004. Note that currently the federal-funds rate is between zero and 0.25%.)

There is almost complete agreement among various commentators that the massive monetary pumping by the Fed since September last year was necessary to prevent a plunge in aggregate demand.

As a result, it is held, the Fed has prevented the economy from falling into a severe recession. According to this way of thinking, the increase in money supply strengthens the demand for goods and services, which in turn strengthens the economy. A stronger economy in turn feeds back into the demand and this strengthens the economy further.

Following this logic, whenever the economy is starting to gain strength and can stand on its own feet, there is no need any longer for all the pumped money. In fact keeping all the pumped money can be detrimental to the economy's health. (Keeping all the pumped money can only lay the foundation for various distortions and a higher rate of inflation some time in the future — so it is held.)

It follows that, once it has been established that the pumped money has managed to place the economy on a healthy growth path, the pumped money can be safely removed without any bad side effects whatsoever. (Again, according to this way of thinking, money pumping is required as long as the economy cannot stand on its own feet.)

The Illusory Economic Recovery
Most Fed officials and various economic commentators are of the view that the US economy might be rapidly approaching a stage where it is possible to take out a large chunk of the recently pumped money without causing any harmful side effects in regard to economic activity.

Seasonally adjusted construction spending increased by 0.8% in April after rising by 0.4% in March. Pending sales of previously owned homes shot up by 6.7% in April, the biggest monthly gain since October 2001. Manufacturing activity also shows signs of strengthening. The ISM index rose to 42.8 in May from 40.1 in the month before. The new orders component of the ISM jumped to 51.1 in May from 47.2 in April. It seems that the economy is on its way to standing on its own feet.

What most commentators and Fed policy makers don't tell us is that monetary pumping has given rise to various bubble activities. These bubble activities are supported by real savings that have been diverted from wealth generators by means of pumped money. Also note that the pumped money has prevented the removal of various old bubble activities. Hence, contrary to popular thinking, the massive money pumping has actually weakened the economy's bottom line.

If the Fed were to start taking some of the newly pumped money from the economy, i.e., to curb the money-supply rate of growth, this would hurt various old and new bubble activities. It would set in motion an economic bust. (Remember, bubble activities are not self-funded; they require money "out of thin air," which is employed to divert real savings to them from wealth generators.)

Summary and Conclusions

A major concern for Fed policy makers is a visible weakening in the US dollar against major currencies. If the Fed were to allow the dollar to fall further, the US central bank runs the risk that major holders of US-dollar assets will divest to nondollar assets. This could push long-term rates and mortgage rates higher, thereby igniting another crisis. If, in order to defend the dollar, the Fed were to start taking some of the newly pumped money from the economy, i.e., to curb the money supply rate of growth, this will hurt various old and new bubble activities and set in motion an economic bust. Even if the Fed were to decide to tighten its stance just slightly, given the current strengthening in the growth momentum of economic activity, this could visibly weaken the growth momentum of monetary liquidity, thus posing a threat to the stock market. It seems that the Fed might have painted itself into a corner

[Elgenedy]

Bom dia a todos,

Análise publicada pelo Commerzbank:

Falsa sensação altista

12/06/2009 17:43 Horas BMS

Mais do mesmo. Os mercados continuam imersos dentro de um intervalo lateral ligeiramente altista e à mais mínima queda que se registe volta a entrar dinheiro, evitando que estes entrem em perdas. Continuamos a acreditar que o mais provável é que os índices acabem por tomar um lógico e são fôlego, ainda que continuemos sem perfurar suportes, pelo menos de momento. Se observarmos o volume, podemos ver que este não apenas é baixo, senão que além disso tem sido decrescente durante o último mês, o que significa que provavelmente cada vez falte menos para que registem um brusco movimento. A lógica, e muitos sinais técnicos apontam para que o desenlace seja em baixa, mas também é verdade que nunca chega. Curiosamente, a sensação que todos temos é a de que as bolsas não pararam de subir nas últimas semanas, mas o caso é que a grande maioria (menos as asiáticas) estão nos mesmos níveis que há um mês atrás. Talvez tenhamos o motivo dos índices estarem dentro desta lateralidade no grande vencimento de futuros que terá lugar a nível mundial na próxima sexta-feira 19 de Junho. É provável que, por alguma estranha circunstância, estejam a “aguentar os mercados” à espera de que este finalize. E quem sabe…mas duvido muito que uma vez este finalize, e com o Verão ao vira da esquina, as bolsas continuem a ter vontade de subir depois do impressionante “rally” que estamos a registar.

Fonte: Commerzbank

Cumprimentos,

./elgenedy

[et pluribus unum]

De referir também que andamos a rezar por novos mínimos e a bater nos americanos à sensivelmente três meses. Algum dia acertas nem que seja no próximo bear market...Não quero com isto dizer que já estamos em modo Bull. Aquilo que quero dizer é que tanto insistes que algum dia acertas nem que demore dias semanas ou anos mas irás acertar. os 880 eram impossiveis depois o 900 dps os 915 dps os 930 e por aí andamos mas o que é certo é que nao há meio de o mercado cair e enquanto isso as perdas vão aumentando e os stops disparando. mas o minimos viram...

[et pluribus unum]

Midas sem querer ofender mas mais em tom de brincadeira será que nunca pensaste em mudar o teu nickname para Midas o Anti-Americano ou Bin Laden Portugues? É com alguma tristeza que dia após dia leio os teus comentários em relaçao ao meu «país». Sou nascido em Portugal mas neste momento o meus País é os Estados Unidos da América...Como diz Eduardo Lourenço, o nosso País não é aquele onde nascemos mas sim aquele que nos acolhe.
No meu ultimo post referi que você deve ter alguma sequela em relação aos EUA. Talvez perdas avultadas nao faço ideia mas não é nada normal a sua postura perante a maior Economia do Mundo...Já pensaste que se os States cairam o mundo também cai?? enfim...
Já o disse e volto a repetir...Os Estados Unidos da América foram serão e irão continuar a ser a médio prazo a MAIOR economina do MUNDO.

God Bless you
God Bless the United States of America

[Midas]

Xana há muito tempo que não falamos. Bom te ver por aqui. É bom alguém estar bear, a desconfiar deste rallie, assim há outras opiniões além das bull.

Thursday, June 11, 2009
Leveraged Bullishness Highest Since 2001
Posted by Tyler Durden at 4:49 PM
For all the talk of money on the sidelines and other such gibberish, sentimentrader has put together a great chart based on Rydex fund data, indicating that traders had placed 2.4 times as much leveraged money in bull funds as bear funds: the highest level since November 2001. The data is comparable for the unleveraged ratio. If anyone still thinks that there are many bulls on the sidelines who have not entered the market, you can a) note the facts below or b) listen to Bob Pisani distort them.

[Neckline]

Ola.

Se não estou em erro quando foi aberto este tópico o SP estava nos 840 pontos, actualmente está nos 940, ou seja subiu. Confesso que depois de uma subida de 100 pontos mete-me alguma confusão o facto de alguns dos participantes deste tópico estarem a dar a entender que os mercados têm estado a cair, quando toda a gente sabe que já vamos em 3 meses de subida.

Aceito as opiniões dos que pensam que isto vai estoirar, mas há uma coisa que os poucos anos de bolsa me foram ensinando nunca se deve ir contra o sentimento dos mercados.
Xana

Olá Xana

É sempre bom ler uma opinião feminina num fórum de bolsa algo pouco habitual.
Só fiquei com uma dúvida.
O que entende por "sentimento dos mercados"?

Se tivesse escrito por exemplo - padrão, tendência eu teria concordado assim fiquei na dúvida em relação ao seu argumento /

O caso do dax é apenas um exemplo do padrão que tem acompanhado esta subida nos últimos meses.

[Xana]

Ola.

Se não estou em erro quando foi aberto este tópico o SP estava nos 840 pontos, actualmente está nos 940, ou seja subiu. Confesso que depois de uma subida de 100 pontos mete-me alguma confusão o facto de alguns dos participantes deste tópico estarem a dar a entender que os mercados têm estado a cair, quando toda a gente sabe que já vamos em 3 meses de subida.

Aceito as opiniões dos que pensam que isto vai estoirar, mas há uma coisa que os poucos anos de bolsa me foram ensinando nunca se deve ir contra o sentimento dos mercados.

Xana

[Nyk]

BCE diz que vem aí ainda mais desemprego

O Banco Central Europeu (BCE) é claro no seu boletim mensal de Junho: vem aí mais desemprego.

A instituição monetária espera uma deterioração ainda maior do mercado de trabalho da Zona Euro nos próximos meses, que afectará também a actividade económica.

Depois da forte contracção dos dois primeiros trimestres do ano, o banco espera que a economia europeia caia a taxas muito menos negativas no resto de 2009, e aponta para taxas de crescimento positivas trimestrais em meados de 2010, após uma fase de estagnação.

Os dados disponíveis, diz o BCE, mantêm as expectativas de inflação a médio e longo prazo «firmemente ancoradas» em linha com o objectivo da instituição, de manter a taxa abaixo dos 2%. As pressões inflacionistas são agora bem moderadas, tendo em conta que a massa monetária e o crédito caíram mais, por isso é de prever a manutenção da estabilidade de preços a médio prazo.

Recorde-se que o BCE manteve, na semana passada, a taxa de juro de referência para a Zona Euro nos 1%, o valor mais baixo de sempre. O presidente do banco, Jean-Claude Trichet, considerou na altura que este é um nível adequado para o preço do dinheiro, mas não afastou a possibilidade de o voltar a descer, se tal se mostrasse necessário.

No plano económico, o BCE baixou recentemente as suas previsões para 2009, depois de a contracção do primeiro trimestre ter sido maior do que o esperado (2,5% face ao trimestre anterior). Com este novo dado, a instituição monetária aponta agora para uma queda de 4,6% no conjunto do ano, ao que debe seguir-se outra contracção, bem menor, em 2010 (de 0,3%).

[JCS]

Stocks fall on inflation, interest-rate jitters

Stocks fall as weak 10-year note auction raises worries about inflation, interest rates

Madlen Read and Tim Paradis, AP Business Writers
On Wednesday June 10, 2009, 5:24 pm EDT


NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market has a new priority: interest rates.

Stocks fell moderately Wednesday after the government sold $19 billion in 10-year Treasury notes in a relatively weak auction. There were plenty of bidders, but the government had to lure them in with a higher yield than the market had anticipated.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose for the fourth time in five days, jumping to 3.95 percent from 3.86 percent late Tuesday. That helped send stocks broadly lower, with the Dow Jones industrial average losing 24 points.

Investors are concerned the government's debt load is growing so large that it will lead to higher inflation and soaring interest rates. Higher interest rates could hamper the economy's recovery by raising borrowing costs for consumers, while inflation could also discourage them from spending.

Stocks have fallen several times in the past two months on worries over interest rates. Yields on long-term Treasury bonds jumped on May 21, sending the stock market sharply lower, after Standard & Poor's warned it might downgrade the British government's AAA debt rating. That touched off fears that the U.S. government's own debt rating might be in downgraded at some point, as some analysts say.

A weakening dollar has also contributed to the concerns about interest rates, since it can lead to higher prices for imported goods, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to hold inflation in check by raising short-term interest rates.

The dollar's slump has also stirred inflationary worries by driving up prices for key commodities such as oil, which can trigger higher prices everywhere. The price of crude rose above $71 a barrel on Wednesday, its highest level this year.

Jeffrey Frankel, president of Stuart Frankel & Co., said the Treasury auction rattled some traders. But he added that several cautious pullbacks in a stock market that went nearly straight up for three consecutive months are not necessarily a bad thing.

"You have some people reading the history books, thinking, 'This looks familiar to what the books tell us happened during the Great Depression,' " he said. "Then you have others that saying, 'Don't sell America short.'"

The Dow fell 24.04, or 0.3 percent, to 8,739.02 after sliding as much as 123 points after the release of the Treasury auction results in the early afternoon.

The S&P 500 index fell 3.28, or 0.4 percent, to 939.15. The Nasdaq composite index fell 7.05, or 0.4 percent, to 1,853.08.

Data from the Federal Reserve on regional economies did little to help stocks. The central bank reported in what's known as its "Beige Book" that five of 12 U.S. regions said the economy's "downward trend is showing signs of moderating."

The Dow has been waffling around 8,700 this month, just below where it started the year, after its massive three-month rebound from 12-year lows reached in early March.

"We're going to need to have more positive news on the economic front to make another push higher," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Bonds weakened as Brazil joined China and Russia in saying it was interested in buying the International Monetary Fund bonds as a way to broaden its holdings beyond the dollar. Brazil's finance minister said it was considering buying $10 billion in IMF bonds. That could mean fewer countries show up at Treasury auctions.

Stephen Wood, chief market strategist for North America at Russell Investments, said inflation is just one of the unknowns as traders try to determine how quickly the economy might recover.

"The market was priced for perfection a year and half ago and you had a market that was priced for Armageddon last September and now you have something priced in between."

In other trading, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 4.22, or 0.8 percent, to 523.71.

About three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.2 billion shares compared with 1.1 billion Tuesday.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 2.1 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.7 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 1.1 percent, and France's CAC-40 rose 0.6 percent.

[JCS]

Leiam este artigo. Que lindo "Free Market" do outro lado do Atlântico...de facto vale tudo...

JCS

"Investigators say Fed threatened bank CEO
Congressional investigators say documents prove the Fed threatened to oust bank CEO


Anne Flaherty, Associated Press Writer
On Wednesday June 10, 2009, 7:35 pm EDT


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve threatened to force the ouster of Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis if he didn't follow through with plans to buy Merrill Lynch & Co., Republicans said Wednesday after reviewing internal documents.

Republicans also said there was evidence that the government tried to restrict information related to the merger from being publicly released.

However, none of the documents showed that the government explicitly instructed Bank of America to hide Merrill Lynch's losses from shareholders, they said.

The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee is investigating claims that top government officials, including then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, urged Lewis to go through with the acquisition and not disclose to shareholders the details of Merrill Lynch's deteriorating financial state.

Lewis was scheduled to testify on Thursday before the panel, which is chaired by Rep. Edolphus Towns, D-N.Y.

Bank of America has received $45 billion from the government's $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. As part of that money, the bank received $20 billion in January after Lewis requested it to help offset mounting losses at Merrill Lynch.

According to an internal memo prepared by the committee's Republican staff, Paulson and Bernanke "put a gun to the head" of Lewis and Bank of America's board of directors to force the merger even though Lewis "felt it was his duty to his shareholders to try his luck in the legal system and back out of the deal."

As proof, Republicans cite several documents including an e-mail by an employee at the Richmond Federal Reserve who said Bernake had made it clear that if Bank of America backed out and needed financial assistance, "management is gone."

Just a few weeks after the deal was completed, Bank of America's fourth-quarter earnings report showed the hit its balance sheet took on the Merrill Lynch transaction, making Lewis the target of shareholder anger.

In January, Bank of America reported a $2.39 billion fourth-quarter loss and Merrill Lynch disclosed a loss of more than $15 billion."

[Midas]

O estado da economia Americana vai continuar a agravar-se é inevitável. A Quantitative Easing foi um falhanço total e lá foram mais uns biliões ou triliões ao ar. As taxas de juro das mortgages voltaram ao nível onde estavam e as de longo prazo já batem records, isto ao contrário do que diz a CS nao é pela recuperação da actividade económica, mas sim pelo facto de ninguém querer entrar mais em treasuries e o preço irá ter de ajustar... Ou seja, as Treasuries terão de aumentar muito as yields para atrair compradores o que irá prejudicar os empréstimos.

A economia americana está numa encruzilhada que não há solução há vista, já que tudo o que têm feito até agora é dar tiros no pé.

Acho piada a uma situação. A SEC agora anda a descobrir esquemas Ponzi por todo o lado... Quando é que vão abrir os olhos e anunciar que toda a economia Americana é um gigante esquema Ponzi que só sobrevivia enquanto o resto do mundo andava a comprar as suas obrigações?

[Nyk]

EUA
Fed diz que a economia dos EUA piorou em Maio
Económico
10/06/09 19:45


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Collapse Comunidade
Partilhe: O estado da economia norte-americana agravou-se em Maio, mas algumas regiões do país mostraram sinais de uma moderação da recessão, revela a Reserva Federal (Fed).

"As condições económicas permaneceram fracas ou deterioraram-se ainda mais" entre meados de Abril e Maio, afirma a Fed no seu Livro Bege, sublinhando no entanto que cinco dos seus 12 distritos "notaram que a tendência de contracção está a mostrar sinais de moderação".

O relatório, publicado duas semanas antes de a Fed anunciar a sua decisão sobre os juros, suporta o testemunho do ‘chairman' da autoridade monetária norte-americana, Ben Bernanke, feito na semana passada perante o Congresso, de que apesar de o ritmo da contracção nos EUA estar a abrandar, o mercado de trabalho ainda está fraco e a economia poderá assistir a mais perdas de empregos.

[kuppka]

Caro Midas
Será q vais ficar amarrado a este tópico 2, 3, 4 anos?
Se olhares um barco q se afunda naturalmente, a lógica é simples. Se andam por aí nadadores salvadores a tentar evitar, no minimo há q dar tempo, .. mesmo sabendo q o q estão a fazer não vai resultar.

Cmps!

[Midas]

10 Yr Aution Does Not Go Well. Markets Dive And Rates Soar
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on June 10th, 2009 1:51pm Eastern Time
Those of you that have been following our commentary know that what is happening to rates is a major thing. Today we see it take its toll on the markets. Rates just hit 4% on the 10 yr.

[Midas]

Os green shots proclamados pelo Obama e companhia irão desvanecer-se... O cenário perigoso de estagflação é cada vez mais uma certeza com os preços das commodities, especialmente o petróleo a subir e a economia além de estagnada ainda está com crescimento bem negativo... Quem pensa que a inflação é que trás o crescimento, mais uma vez vai-se provar que está bem enganado. A inflação não provoca crescimento nenhum, é mais uma consequência do crescimento.

Isto está mais perigoso do que julgam e querem fazer crer e está um texto abaixo tirado de um site inthemoneystocks muito bom.

LEITURA OBRIGATÓRIO o texto abaixo de um trader profissional americano.

Market Fades From The Gap Higher As Fears Mount
By InTheMoneyStocks.com on June 10th, 2009 10:03am Eastern Time
While the market still has its head in the sand over recent rhetoric from the President, Treasury and Federal Reserve, the fear should be coming back soon. The Federal Reserve, while intervening in the housing market in certain ways may have caused more problems then they tried to fix. With rates spiking, mortgage applications have dropped bigtime. Rates have spiked because the Federal Reserve and Goverment have printed trillions of dollars and no country wants to buy our longer term debt. If they are to buy it, the US must pay a higher interest rate to get them to take on the risk. The rise in rates has killed refinancing and new home loans as costs have spiked.

In addition, Russian dumping US Treasuries is scary. In reality this is not a big thing as long as no other countries follow. Should China decide to do it, the dollar could take a major hit and things could go bad very quickly.

HIGH GASOLINE COULD PUT PRESSURE ON THE CONSUMER

[Midas]

Para descontração

Esta personagem tem vários vídeos e um blog no youtube onde demonstra a sua indignação de uma forma pouco politicamente correcta contra os governantes americanos. Está muito bom e dá para rir um bocado... Mas ele lá vai dizendo as verdades no meio de tanta loucura. Vou colocar aqui o último video dele e o blog.


http://www.youtube.com/user/walstreetpro2


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[assunoadr]

A grande barreira entre o bull e o bear no DAX

A divergência bearish no histograma do MACD também costuma a ser um sinal relevante.

AA

[Elgenedy]

Realmente interessante Midas. Pena a parte que efectivamente foi enviada ao WSJ tenha sido apenas o primeiro parágrafo

Cumprimentos,

./elgenedy

[Midas]

Um artigo interessante em resposta a outro artigo no WSJ onde o autor diz que o Paulson é um heroi...

‘It’s time to enshrine Hank Paulson as national hero’ WTF?
Henry Paulson, Secretary of the Treasury of th...

Image via Wikipedia

By Evan Newmark

Hank Paulson is a national hero.

I said it last October and I’m sticking by it. And now, there’s actual evidence to back me up. The TARP bailout worked. The Wall Street crisis is over.

via Mean Street: It’s Time to Enshrine Hank Paulson as National Hero - Deal Journal - WSJ.

So here’s the letter I wrote to the Wall Street Journal after reading Evan Newmark’s paean to Hank Paulson last week:

Dear WSJ,

Just out of curiosity — did Evan Newmark ever work for Goldman, Sachs? And if the answer to the question is yes, don’t you think that might have been a good fact to disclose before he fellated Hank Paulson in his “Mean Street” column?

Sincerely,
Matt Taibbi

I didn’t get an answer, which I guess is not surprising. But in the interim I found out that Newmark did, indeed, work for Goldman. I find it funny that a business journalist has to disclose if he’s invested in this or that stock, or short this or that security, before a newspaper will allow him to have an opinion about anything even distantly related to that company — but you don’t need to disclose anything if all you’re doing is kissing your former boss’s ass.

Can you imagine what a craven, bumlicking ass-goblin you’d have to be to get a job working for the Wall Street Journal, not mention up front that you used to be a Goldman, Sachs managing director, and then write a lengthy article calling your former boss a “national hero” — in the middle of a sweeping financial crisis, one in which half the world is in a panic and the unemployment rate just hit a 25-year high? Behavior like this, you usually don’t see it outside prison trusties who spend their evenings shining the guards’ boots. I can’t even think of a political press secretary who would sink that low. Hank Paulson, a hero? Are you fucking kidding us?

Exactly what part of Paulson’s record is heroic, Evan? The part where he called up SEC director William Donaldson in 2004 and quietly arranged to get the state to drop capital requirements for the country’s top five investment banks? You remember that business, right, Evan? Your hero Paulson met with Donaldson and got the rules changed so that Goldman and four other banks no longer had to abide by the old restrictions that forced banks to actually have a dollar or two on hand for every ten or so they lent out. After that, it was party time! Bear Stearns in just a few years had a debt-to-equity ration of 33-1! Lehman’s went to 32-1. By an amazing coincidence, both of these companies exploded just a few years after that meeting, and all of the rest of us, Evan, ended up footing the bill, thanks to a state-sponsored rescue of Bear and a much larger massive bailout of Wall Street in general, necessitated in large part by the damage caused by the chaos surrounding Lehman’s collapse.

Meanwhile your own Goldman, Sachs ended up with a 22:1 debt-to-equity ratio a few years following that meeting, a number that would have been much higher if one didn’t count the hedges Goldman bought through a company called AIG. Thanks in large part to Paulson’s leadership in his last years as head of Goldman, the company was so massively over-leveraged that it would have gone under if AIG — which owed Goldman billions when it went into its death spiral last September — had been allowed to collapse. But thanks to Hank Paulson, who heroically stepped in and gave AIG $80 billion the same weekend he allowed one of Goldman’s last key competitors, Lehman, to collapse, Goldman didn’t have to go without that money; $13 billion of the AIG bailout went straight to Goldman. So I guess we have Paulson to thank for the fact that he used about $13 billion of our taxpayer money to essentially bail out his own fuckups. I mean, that’s heroism if I’ve ever seen it. Audie Murphy has nothing on that. Sit your asses back down, Harriet Tubman, Thomas More, Gandhi and Jesus Christ. Hank Paulson is in the house!

Or maybe it was Paulson’s foresight in heading off the crisis before it happened that inspired you? Maybe it was the way Paulson pronounced the subprime fallout “contained” in 2007 and called the economy the “strongest in decades?” Or maybe it was the way he remained calm last July, saying that it was a “very manageable situation” and “our regulators are on top of it?” Remember how he said all that shit, Evan, just about six weeks before the world exploded? Remember that Henry Paulson was actually in charge of regulating the financial environment during the last years of the crisis and did nothing as his buddies on Wall Street built one gigantic mountain of leverage after another, gashing underwriting standards across the board, saddling the country with a generation of toxic assets that all of the rest of us will be paying for in taxes (instead of, for instance, a health care program, which we can now no longer afford) for the next fifty fucking years? Do you remember that part?

Or was it his non-intervention last summer when gas prices hit $4.50 a gallon thanks again to his old buddies at Goldman and Morgan Stanley, who juiced the commodities market with so much speculative cash that oil prices soared despite the fact that supply was up and demand was down all year? Do you remember that part? How about the way food prices soared thanks to the same commodities speculators? According to the World Food Program at the UN, about 100 million people joined the ranks of the hungry last year during the commodities spike.

Or maybe it was the way the Treasury Department refused to tell the Congress really anything at all about how it chose whom to give TARP money to; how when the Congressional Oversight Panel asked Paulson what criteria he was using to decide who gets bailout money and who doesn’t, he sent Congress back a copy of a TARP application form. Maybe it was that. Or maybe it was the way Paulson got a $200 million tax deferral thanks to an obscure rule that allows executives who join the government to defer taxes on their holdings. That means that not only did Paulson use billions of our money to bail out his own mistakes, he managed to use a loophole to get out of paying his fair share of that same bailout.

Even if it weren’t about five years too early to make any kind of judgment at all about whether or not TARP helped, the notion that Henry Paulson is a hero is complete and utter madness because TARP would never have been necessary if someone, anyone who wasn’t a greed-addled incompetent like Paulson had actually been regulating the economy in the last years of the Bush adminstration. If anyone besides Paulson had been running Goldman Sachs earlier in this decade — if a person with a serious brain injury had been in his place, for instance, or a horse, or a head of lettuce — we’d all be better off today, because there wouldn’t be so many toxic Goldman-underwritten mortgage-backed CDOs on the market. We, all of us, are paying the freight for assholes like Paulson, and like you, for that matter. And while we’re getting over it, slowly, you’re really not helping when you open your mouth and pat yourself on the back for all the good deeds you’ve done. Spare, us, okay? Just give it up.

[um peao]

esta em escala logaritmica

Pois é vi à pressa e nem reparei nos valores.

Pelo que tenho acompanhado (e não vejo diariamente) quase todos os índices europeus estão também a quebrar resistências importantes que os retiram (pelo menos na minha opinião) da zona bear. Os mercados emergentes já saíram da zona bear e os índices europeus podem vir a faze-lo proximamente.

[andren]

esta em escala logaritmica