Governo aprova diploma sobre malparado (outra vez e com um ano e meio de atraso)

[Info]

ó xinho Cramer, benvindo ao clube dos que começam a sentir calores quando abrem mais uns calzitos.

Já agora, perguntam vocês... mas quem são estes gajos dos 'smokestack seven'?

Bem...são 'the seven horsemen of industrial America':
Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE:IR)
American Standard (NYSE:ASD)
Fortune Brands (NYSE:FO)
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT)
Deere (NYSE:DE)
3M (NYSE:MMM)
United Tech (NYSE:UTX)


Cump.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Overstaying the Welcome for Dow 10,000"

By James J. Cramer
12/09/2003 10:21 AM EST


"We should be candid about this run to Dow 10,000. It started with a full head of steam, many groups involved, lots of positives. Think about all of the sectors that participated. Financials and technology led the way. But we had terrific price action in housing and retail and telecommunications. We got some better prices in foods and beverages. We saw excellent prices in the classic industrials and the big old smokestackers. Software stocks finally rallied. Media and entertainment stocks performed superbly.

That all took place during Dow 7500 to Dow 9000 and Nasdaq 1300 to 1800.


Lately, though, as we have eked and clawed our way back to the Dow 10,000 milestone, we have been losing prominent groups along the way, groups that are truly important to the broad nature of the rally. Meanwhile, we have picked up other groups that we don't want or need to go higher. And the acceleration so far this month is actually from the wrong stocks, the stocks that go up when the economy is too strong and the Federal Reserve is about to start tightening aggressively, my big fear for 2004.

Consider that we have seen the oil and gas stocks moving now, ExxonMobil (XOM:NYSE - commentary - research) and ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE - commentary - research) have become quiet market leaders. We are seeing General Motors (GM:NYSE - commentary - research) rally because it isn't going to be slaughtered by its pension plan. Boeing's (BA:NYSE - commentary - research) going up, even though I could argue that it should be going down if the government plays tough. Gold rallies every day, never a good sign. The Smokestack Seven, which I said would be a terrific January call basket, go up every day, which, believe it or not, isn't what we want. We want measured growth.

Meanwhile, retail, perhaps reacting to curtailed money supply or the petering out of checks from the government, acts simply awful. The financials, instead of crashing through the BKX barrier I thought would be trashed by now, have stalled and can't get out of their own way. (This Washington Mutual (WM:NYSE - commentary - research) blow-up may be the knockdown punch.)


Delevering stories, so much of what made 2003 great, have been in reverse. Telecommunications plays seem to be creeping backwards. The drugs, after an initial lift from the Medicare giveaway, now seem to be stuck in the mud again.

Even tech, led by Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research), has become problematic, with another test today coming from Texas Instruments (TXN:NYSE - commentary - research). I don't know if it will pass the test, frankly. I hope so, but what's that worth?


So while I feel great about the run to Dow 10,000, especially because I turned what some folks thought was recklessly bullish at the exquisite moment when I said we could go this high, I know how we have gotten these last points, and I don't like it, not one bit.

Doesn't make me a bear. But, as fits my style, I was much more bullish lower than I am here. I resist saying "I don't like it" because I still see individual stocks I like, but I do feel that it is too late at this point to embrace the leadership from 9500 on, and the followers simply aren't following.

I hate staying until the end of the party, unless it's at my house. You hate to be the guest who overstayed the welcome. Yet, that's exactly how I feel at Dow 9965 this morning. "

(in www.realmoney.com)