Fundos de capital de risco superam ações na rentabilidade

[Dwer]

Market is expected to stage an early, strong move up which will sell off later in the session. CAUTION: Bear Ugly alert for today. Watch for strong, bad news on the open.

Trade Setup Summary for Friday, December 5, 2003:
Sell 1066.50-67.50/ Cover for +6pts.

*Sell BreakOut and cover for triple tested support at the 1060-61 area.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.

Well, we saw the action on the S&P500 futures, Dow and Naz get hammered out a little more on Friday with a definite stronger bias to the downside without the reflex reversals we have been seeing as of late.

The High Five were very bearish on Friday and we would have expected to see the prices drop through the 1059 area and press lower. Our TCF System trade got us short at the B/O in the 1067.50 area and prices pushed lower all day.

We saw the market try to crack the 1060-61 area 3 times and on the 3rd try we covered up the short based on the average 10 day range of 8.80. You are just not going to be able to consistently sqeeze 8 point trades out of such a low range and until those ranges open up some we will only be able to get 8 points on special, more volatile days where things are extended.

Still, we are always going to hold out as planned with our system and the rules accordingly but we are going to be on guard for days like Friday where the signals are there to grab profits at resistance. There will be days where we do this and the market will end up giving us the 8 points we want or even 10 sometimes but that is just the way it goes. We have to be willing to adapt each day in these markets as the CONDITIONS DICTATE and not just our system rules.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we have two scenarios that are looking possible. The first is that we get a flat to HIGHER OPENING and an early, strong rally which will fizzle out later in the session. This is what we are expecting to occur to continue the Sell Mode market force that we are rolling into now with current prices.

We also are on alert for a Bear Ugly day with some surprise, bad news off the opening that sends the markets reeling lower. Although we do not expect this to occur today the strong possibility is there in the setup of the TCF Market Force indicators.

We are carefully watching each day unfold now to see if we are getting true bearish or bullish market characteristics. As you know, I have been explaining the last 4 sessions or so how the market is in an arm wrestling match as we approach the Christmas/New Years period.

Friday's trade action has ALL the ingredients to get hammered lower in price and did not do it. This is a bullish sign. However, seeing prices move up early and then close down later in the session is a bearish market mood and we would need to see this continue for the slower erosion we are ultimately expecting. If we continue to get lower openings, early drops and prices moving higher into the close this is a bullish sign and we would look to be trading more on the buy side going into Christmas.

Right now we are looking for genuine signs of a bias.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Today could be a little bit of a tricky day to trade so be extra careful. We are going to look to be selling early rallies especially on a higher opening. If we do this though we may want to look for the higher, early prices to "hang up" at the highs for most of the early session before selling off later after 1:30 est or so. We would also need to see proof from the High Five that prices are going to roll over back to the downside and this is not likely to happen if we have a strong NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) or the TRIN below .80 or lower. So watch these tell tale signs before committing to the short side.

We could get long on the BreakDown IF that is the first Hour One pivot hit AND the opening and early action is not corresponding to a Bear Ugly day as described in our TCF Trading Handbook. You can read that section for complete clarity on what to look for in an unfolding (what we call) Bear Ugly market scenario. Basically, this is when strong, bad news opens up the market GAP DOWN and the High Five all go into the Bear Ugly category that we have shown on our site. At that point you just want to think..."Sell"!. We do this at the first Hour One Pivot B/D and we short there looking for that Ugly market situation to give us an 8-10 point price squash below the lows. You can see that it would take a very bearish, ugly market to do that.

Value Area: 1,061.70 - 1,068.00
Watch for prices to rally and then fall back into this VA for exhibiting bearish qualities. Pushing below 1061.70 and holding lower is the key to seeing stronger lower prices.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,058.25 - 1,059.25
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot for support on a flat to lower opening (not a Bear Ugly market). This would be 1054.00.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,067.50 - 1,066.50
No trade at this Sell Pivot target today although we want to watch this price area in relation to the BreakOut Hour One pivot to compare the two and see if this would become double resistance today. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1071.75 for new resistance upside.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,058.60
We can all see now how pressure is mounting up near the 10 day moving average Pit Bull as we now will be looking for a CROSSOVER to the other side on the Sell Mode.

If things get going further to the downside today we will expect to take out Friday's lows at the 1059.50 area and push below the Pit Bull. Now there is a good chance that we may find strong support here if they are going to continue to rally into Christmas so today will be very important to find out how prices to react to this number to give us clues for the next 2.5 weeks.