Mohan 03/12/03
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Mohan 03/12/03
On a gap up opening and early rally keep selling rallies. On a lower opening and early drop, we need to look to be buyers for another move up to test above the 1071.00 area.
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, December 2, 2003:
Sell 1069/ Cover for up to +4pts.
*Sell BreakOut Hour One pivot and cover the trade after the later spike drop failed to produce further lows.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
Our Headline Call for Tuesday was to continue to sell rallies as we were looking for the market to start to move lower. This is what we got Tuesday except we still continue to see the stubborn support coming in AND now we are seeing excessive bears coming into the market when it does drop and find support. Although today will be crucial to determine for sure, this type of action is symptomatic of higher prices coming and maybe causing a "Santa Claus Rally" if the Bears get fully entrenched enough.
Now I know you are thinking..."But Hey Mohan, what about the Market Force Indicators 'rolling to sell mode'?" Well, this is a FACT that we are on the verge of a rollover to the Sell Mode but keep in mind that our dynamic system of reading the market IS BASED ON REALITY and NOT being stuck in some one sided opinion.
Let me explain. Our TCF system and method of reading the Market Force indicators which I present to you daily with the Headline Call are NOT obligated to see that directional force pan out even though all the symptoms are there. The vast majority of the time they will AS YOU HAVE SEEN if you have been a subscriber for a few months or more.
When the prices DO NOT FUFILL THE NEW ROLLOVER MODE then they go into (what I call) an "aberration" and this signals a move in the opposite direction until that move has exhausted itself FURTHER. That is the beauty of the system that I have developed... That is,the systems own ability to read aberrations on itself and recommend us to take an opposite position. IE: THE TCF SYSTEM "SELF FADES" ITSELF WHEN NECESSARY. How cool is that.
Most trading systems and their operators follow a strict (or even loose sometimes) set of rules and the method either works out or a stop is triggered and the results are derived from those results. In our case with the TCF methods I am always on the lookout for an aberration on the Market Force indicators so WE CAN TAKE AN OPPOSITE POSITION at least temporarily until that aberration is exhausted. Do you see? Actually this is unique in trading systems...a built in "system fade" control.
So all this being said, TODAY IS CRUCIAL to see if indeed we get the important larger scale down day to "open" up the Sell Mode OR if we get crushed early and they find support and move up again. Today should give us tremendous clues to this.
Hence the double sided (not hedged) Headline Call. Remember, I don't hedge the Headline Call. Occasionally we will have a "double sided" call which simply gives two opening scenarios and how the market bias is based on the early moves of the prices after the opening. Solid.
Tuesday's action can be seen on the chart above and like Monday it was just another small range, go nowhere seriously day. We got some nice points out of it considering the tight, dead 6.50 range.
Today's Call & Briefing:
As mentioned above we have a double sided Headline Call today. We will watch the early movements of the prices today as we look to decipher whether we are going to get a larger scale downside move to open up that side or we keep grinding up into a sort of synthetic "Santa Claus Rally" as the bears fight the tape as Santa Rises up the chimney delivering the bullish gifts!
Today should supply some important clues. One of those clues will be the continued support of prices above 1067-68 which was a lauching pad on the floor for lower prices on Monday and more hard spikes lower on Tuesday from slightly higher levels.
As mentioned yesterday, this was based on an old high from June of 2002. Now that is either going to become new support for a drive up to the 1097.00 area or they fizzle out from here and we move back towards 1045 or lower.
Let's watch the early opening and first 45 minute price moves and see what we got.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day to show up possibly today with some surprise, strong, bad news that has the markets reeling and heading lower. Read in the 21st Century Futures Trading Handbook all about these setups and hold short if we get that action.
If not, and we get the BreakOut as the first Hour One Pivot then we need to be on the lookout for a BreakOut BUY with a full Bullish High Five and the Dow flat at the time of the B/O. Our definition of flat is when the Dow is up +50 points or less. Look for NAZ to be strong and up +12-15 for a bullish BreakOut and TRIN below .80 or less.
No trades at the Buy/Sell Pivots today.
Value Area: 1,066.00 - 1,068.40
Watch for support to come in at lower prices and move back up ABOVE the VA for this market to show bullish support coming in for Christmas. It could be a tricky Holiday trading time with the bullish support coming in YET our Market Force indicators ready to roll strongly to Sell Mode.
YOU CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THIS THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH THE STRONG SPIKES LOWER OUT OF NOWHERE. Friends, you can see how this Sell Force is in the markets but it keeps finding support. It's like a super clear crystal ball the last 2 days. The problem is the extremely low, tight range and the ongoing lack of committment by traders to take a side on a larger scale.
Stay the course and follow the TCF setups carefully to avoid getting chopped up in this market.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,064.00 - 1,065.00
No trade at this pivot today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,070.50 - 1,069.50
No trade at this pivot today. Observe the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1074.75 for resistance. Look to get short up here in relation to the situation with the BreakOut Buy or Sell depending on the High Five and TCF Trade Setup conditions.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,049.50
The Pit Bull is serving nicely to hold support under the markets. That is why we need to really observe if we are getting the dips loaded with too many Bears jumping on them and face that this market is going higher if that is the case. Ready to rock either way.
Pro Trader's Action
This low range, increasingly volatile market situation we are in right now has to be handled very efficiently by traders. Try and follow the TCF setups as carefully as you can, avoid "Guessing" on trades (also known as "Gut feel" LOL) and be willing to hold out on the Headline Call directional side as it sets up in relation to the TCF Trade setups.
Good luck today, be careful in this treacherous environment and I'll definitly see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, December 2, 2003:
Sell 1069/ Cover for up to +4pts.
*Sell BreakOut Hour One pivot and cover the trade after the later spike drop failed to produce further lows.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.
Our Headline Call for Tuesday was to continue to sell rallies as we were looking for the market to start to move lower. This is what we got Tuesday except we still continue to see the stubborn support coming in AND now we are seeing excessive bears coming into the market when it does drop and find support. Although today will be crucial to determine for sure, this type of action is symptomatic of higher prices coming and maybe causing a "Santa Claus Rally" if the Bears get fully entrenched enough.
Now I know you are thinking..."But Hey Mohan, what about the Market Force Indicators 'rolling to sell mode'?" Well, this is a FACT that we are on the verge of a rollover to the Sell Mode but keep in mind that our dynamic system of reading the market IS BASED ON REALITY and NOT being stuck in some one sided opinion.
Let me explain. Our TCF system and method of reading the Market Force indicators which I present to you daily with the Headline Call are NOT obligated to see that directional force pan out even though all the symptoms are there. The vast majority of the time they will AS YOU HAVE SEEN if you have been a subscriber for a few months or more.
When the prices DO NOT FUFILL THE NEW ROLLOVER MODE then they go into (what I call) an "aberration" and this signals a move in the opposite direction until that move has exhausted itself FURTHER. That is the beauty of the system that I have developed... That is,the systems own ability to read aberrations on itself and recommend us to take an opposite position. IE: THE TCF SYSTEM "SELF FADES" ITSELF WHEN NECESSARY. How cool is that.
Most trading systems and their operators follow a strict (or even loose sometimes) set of rules and the method either works out or a stop is triggered and the results are derived from those results. In our case with the TCF methods I am always on the lookout for an aberration on the Market Force indicators so WE CAN TAKE AN OPPOSITE POSITION at least temporarily until that aberration is exhausted. Do you see? Actually this is unique in trading systems...a built in "system fade" control.
So all this being said, TODAY IS CRUCIAL to see if indeed we get the important larger scale down day to "open" up the Sell Mode OR if we get crushed early and they find support and move up again. Today should give us tremendous clues to this.
Hence the double sided (not hedged) Headline Call. Remember, I don't hedge the Headline Call. Occasionally we will have a "double sided" call which simply gives two opening scenarios and how the market bias is based on the early moves of the prices after the opening. Solid.
Tuesday's action can be seen on the chart above and like Monday it was just another small range, go nowhere seriously day. We got some nice points out of it considering the tight, dead 6.50 range.
Today's Call & Briefing:
As mentioned above we have a double sided Headline Call today. We will watch the early movements of the prices today as we look to decipher whether we are going to get a larger scale downside move to open up that side or we keep grinding up into a sort of synthetic "Santa Claus Rally" as the bears fight the tape as Santa Rises up the chimney delivering the bullish gifts!
Today should supply some important clues. One of those clues will be the continued support of prices above 1067-68 which was a lauching pad on the floor for lower prices on Monday and more hard spikes lower on Tuesday from slightly higher levels.
As mentioned yesterday, this was based on an old high from June of 2002. Now that is either going to become new support for a drive up to the 1097.00 area or they fizzle out from here and we move back towards 1045 or lower.
Let's watch the early opening and first 45 minute price moves and see what we got.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly day to show up possibly today with some surprise, strong, bad news that has the markets reeling and heading lower. Read in the 21st Century Futures Trading Handbook all about these setups and hold short if we get that action.
If not, and we get the BreakOut as the first Hour One Pivot then we need to be on the lookout for a BreakOut BUY with a full Bullish High Five and the Dow flat at the time of the B/O. Our definition of flat is when the Dow is up +50 points or less. Look for NAZ to be strong and up +12-15 for a bullish BreakOut and TRIN below .80 or less.
No trades at the Buy/Sell Pivots today.
Value Area: 1,066.00 - 1,068.40
Watch for support to come in at lower prices and move back up ABOVE the VA for this market to show bullish support coming in for Christmas. It could be a tricky Holiday trading time with the bullish support coming in YET our Market Force indicators ready to roll strongly to Sell Mode.
YOU CAN SEE EVIDENCE OF THIS THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH THE STRONG SPIKES LOWER OUT OF NOWHERE. Friends, you can see how this Sell Force is in the markets but it keeps finding support. It's like a super clear crystal ball the last 2 days. The problem is the extremely low, tight range and the ongoing lack of committment by traders to take a side on a larger scale.
Stay the course and follow the TCF setups carefully to avoid getting chopped up in this market.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,064.00 - 1,065.00
No trade at this pivot today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,070.50 - 1,069.50
No trade at this pivot today. Observe the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1074.75 for resistance. Look to get short up here in relation to the situation with the BreakOut Buy or Sell depending on the High Five and TCF Trade Setup conditions.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,049.50
The Pit Bull is serving nicely to hold support under the markets. That is why we need to really observe if we are getting the dips loaded with too many Bears jumping on them and face that this market is going higher if that is the case. Ready to rock either way.
Pro Trader's Action
This low range, increasingly volatile market situation we are in right now has to be handled very efficiently by traders. Try and follow the TCF setups as carefully as you can, avoid "Guessing" on trades (also known as "Gut feel" LOL) and be willing to hold out on the Headline Call directional side as it sets up in relation to the TCF Trade setups.
Good luck today, be careful in this treacherous environment and I'll definitly see you in the action. Mohan
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- Mohan 031203.GIF (44.13 KiB) Visualizado 146 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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