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[Dwer]

Market to attempt to push higher early, get hit with selling, find support and go flat for the day.
Trade Setup Summary for Monday, November 24, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups occured on Monday (see above chart)

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thanks for joining with us today.

A special repeat reminder that on Wednesday there will be no Headline Call and therefore no TCF trade recommendations. This will also be the case for Friday's action and of course we are closed on Thursday. I will be putting some brief comments about the days action on Wednesday and Friday along with our regular numbers just to keep us up to speed and on track.

Our Headline Call for Monday was to look for higher prices either on a lower open and early pullback or on a higher open and early run up. We had plans to sell the early run up if we got the right setup for selling which we did NOT.

The market soared higher on Monday's open with a +4.00 gap up to the 1040.00 price area, held the gains and pushed higher all day.

With the screaming Mega Bullish High Five the setup would have been to Sell the BreakOut +2-4 focusing definitely more on adding 4 points to the B/O. 1048.00 (B/O) + 4pts would have been 1052.00 and we never got there.

The markets were basically just trading in a small range Monday so it was really no big deal. As mentioned in Monday's Morning Call briefing we were expecting the upside to be the directional bias but things are starting to change now as we are beginning to roll to the underlying Sell Mode with our Market Force indicators.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call for today is going to be looking for an early pop up in the markets which we are going to take a chance and short the Sell Pivot target if we get the opportunity.

We will then be looking for a pullback (most likely a quick one) that will find support, stall and then just flip flop around for the day.

If this pans out it will be one of those days where the early, fast money is the only opportunity as the rest of the day just settles into Value.

We would expect the support to come in first at the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average at 1044.50. Just below that is a crucial number at 1040.50 which we feel will hold em up today.

The mystery of the trade for the next few days will be to see if they find support and grind up slowly into Wednesday's close for the holiday. This is very often what has occured during bullish years of the past and as we find our way out of this rather grim, bearish period we have been in we may see this bullish holiday pattern occur as a sign of an overall change beginning to occur.

Caution: Our Market Force Indicators are getting ready to "roll to Sell". As you know we meticulously track our daily 18 proprietary indicators and try and inform you when there is an underlying (what I call) "Mode Change". We have been in a Buy Mode short term Market Force since the first day of October where the low of the day came in at 997.00 and rallied up to close at the 1016.00 area. We are not quite there yet but as of today we will be on the lookout for the Mode shift to roll to Sell and it could be any day now. I am thinking we may get this holiday week out of the way before the Mode change officially occurs. I will keep you posted.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Let's sell the Sell Pivot Target on a flat to higher opening and early small push higher. If they open right on the Sell Pivot target then TRY AND GET A HGIHER PRICE but be ready to go short very quickly for an early, fast drop. Use the +4.25 stop/pivot at 1058.00 as a price resistance area if they open up on the sell Pivot target but be ready to short anytime.

If this setup does not work out or the market makes an alternate move then look to Sell the BreakOut if that is the first Hour One pivot to occur today.

If the first Hour One Pivot is the BreakDown then we should be able to buy that B/D for a bounce today on a lower open and early sell off. This would be required to take the B/D (the lower open and early sell off) otherwise be a bit careful getting long on a flat to slighly lower open and weak lower drop. We would look for that excessive, early bearish force to give our long on the B/D the bouce we need to make our paycheck.

Value Area: 1,046.30 - 1,050.20
Value is in this small 4 point range and trade moving above the VA and falling back into this zone is bearish for the early session.

If prices drop early and rise back into this zone with the High Five staying at neutral then this would support the idea that we are going to get the traditional bullish grind higher in prices through Wednesday. You can fight this and get stopped out but that is very often what occurs over the many years I've traded Thanksgiving time periods.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,042.75 - 1,043.75
No Trade at this pivot today. Watch and compare to the B/D for possible clues of support if it follows the same or similar script outlined above.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,053.75 - 1,052.75
I have described this trade for today in detail in the "TCF Trade Setups to Watch for Today" section.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,044.50
This would be first support on any early push up in prices and fast drops. Next would be the 1040.50 as mentioned. I am expecting the range to be contained as it has lately within 11 handles so if we do get the higher, early pop and can get short this would be a nice covering area for 8-10 points. How fortunate we would be to get such a nice, pre planned trade. Good luck on that one.

Pro Trader's Action
Well, we are rolling into the Thanksgiving holiday and many traders are going to start taking time off. Usually the markets slowly grind higher and as mentioned, our TCF Market Force indicators are "rolling to Sell Mode". Not sure how this will pan out just yet. We could either see a large move to the downside for Christmas OR we could see a pullback and find the indicators going into aberration on the new Sell Mode giving us further upside into the New Year. Rest assured I will keep you posted along the way.

For today let's just see if we can get that early Sell Pivot Target hammered out and make some fast dough$. If that doesn't occur as scripted then watch for the next Hour One pivot to get hit and let's take a shot there.

There will not be any more trading for the week after today but that doesn't mean we have to Jam a Trade that doesn't really exist. See how the market behaves today and if a really clear, good TCF setup occurs. If not, we will catch the action next week.

I'll be doing a brief update for Wednesday along with all our usual numbers. Good luck today and I'll see you in the action...if we get any. Mohan