Mohan 24/11/03
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Mohan 24/11/03
Look for a lower opening below 1036.30 and an early drop to be bullish for todays market. NOTE: Special Thanksgiving Week "Headline Call" Schedule
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 21, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups on Friday due to option expiration day.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today. Please note the following schedule for this weeks "Headline Call" schedule.
Markets are closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving Holiday. There will be no Headline Call for Wednesday's trading, Thursday or Friday's Trading thus no TCF Trade setups will be recommended for Wednesday, Thursday or Friday.
On Option Expiration days we do not make Headline Calls and therefore do not recommend any specific TCF Trade setups (TCF=21st Century Futures).
As is often the case on Option expiration days we ended up having a virtually "go nowhere" type day as the market traded in a small 6.60 range. There was a bounce off the Hour One BreakDown lows and they traded after that in a herky-jerky type fashion eventually working the prices up towards the highs for the day around 1036-37.
On these Non Headline Call days we recommend standing aside. Please note that their will be 2 Non Headline Call days on Wednesday (the day before the Thanksgiving Holiday) and Friday (the day after the Holiday). Very often these are bullish traditional periods so let's see how things go. We prefer to stand aside on these Holiday type volume days as do most professional traders on the exchange.
Of course, there are always opportunities to trade on any day but here at TCF we will be standing aside in "position neutral". There will be many similar "position neutral" days surrounding the Christmas and New Year holidays too and these are often good times for S&P500 day traders like us to schedule extra time off for vacations or extra time with our families and friends.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are overall bullish for today's action. Especially on a lower opening and early move down we feel that this should "feed" the upside price action today.
Let's see if we can get an early drop that does NOT correspond to a Bear Ugly type day where we see some devastating news that drives the markets lower.
We have to be very careful in interpreting the news now-a-days. The news media, which is tightly controlled, has become more of a vehicle now for manipulating complicated agendas tied in with certain powerful, influencial factors. It is clearly no longer unbiased and totally trustworthy but only to a certain degree.
We have seen how "Bear Ugly" information can be dropped into the mainstream headlines on some controlling interests whim. The question for us as traders in interpreting "Bear Ugly" days currently is, "how Ugly does the news have to be"? This question will remain to be seen. I think we will still get a clear idea of when news is significant enough to cause the markets to reel.
The real skill for traders in the coming months and years ahead will be learning to determine which news or events are genuine and which ones are being "created" to have an affect on the public to fufill a different agenda.
We will be looking to trade on the buy side today overall especially if we can get the lower opening and drop.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If our Headline Call is going to pan out then we will get a flat to lower opening and an early move to the downside. Barring any genuine Bear Ugly news this should be bullish for the markets today and may be (Now notice I said May Be) the start of a 2-3 day up move through Thanksgiving. We will be able to tell more about this after today's price responses. We would be looking to Buy the BreakDown today if the lower action sets up.
If we open higher and run up early then this could throw water on a more bullish scenario. We could still have a BreakOut Buy today with the correct TCF setup (Dow flat at the time of the B/O, Naz up +12-15 or more with the TRIN below .80 or less and VIX lower). If we open higher though we would expect the BreakOut would be more limited and would look to take profits sooner.
We would look to Sell the BreakOut if we shot up right off the open with the Dow up +80 or higher and the NAZ holding back being up only +10 or less. On a BreakOut with a setup such as this we would be shorting that action looking for the market to give us clues of strength or weakness on a pullback from the B/O to the opening range area.
Value Area: 1,033.00 - 1,036.00
We have this small VA range today created by the tight range on Friday to give us clues of the markets direction. If they open lower and move lower but run back up above this VA zone and hold above it that would be a bullish sign.
Especially significant is seeing the market hold above 1033.00 to continue to be in an upward momentum direction.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,032.25 - 1,033.25
No Trade at this Buy Pivot Target today but look for support to come in at the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1028.00 to stay bullish. We would then want to see prices climb back over 1033.00 decisively and continue higher.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,038.75 - 1,037.75
No Trade at this Sell Pivot today. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot for further upside movement upon blowing through 1043.00 and then coming up against the Pit Bull shown below.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,044.20
Here is a big "line in the sand" for today if we get a rally going above the Sell Pivot target on a lower open, drop and then rally off those lows. If prices fluidly run through this area without much resistance then it will be a good sign of strength. Stalling here will show that we need some more specific reason or interpretation of events to really pop through this area back to test the 1051.00 area again.
Today should give us some important information for determining if have already fufilled the lower action and are ready to move up again or we are going to go and test the 1006.00 handle.
Overall it appears we are going higher but as mentioned, today will give us more information in determining that. The next goal to the upside is now 1065-66.00
Pro Trader's Action
We are going to be looking to buy a lower opening and an early move down on one of our recommended TCF trade setups. The preferred setup would be to see the first Hour One pivot be the BreakDown to give us a shot at buying.
If we do get a flat to lower opening and an early push up off of that then we will also watch for a BreakOut buy. Be careful if the markets rally early without the NAZ backing up the higher move.
Good luck today and all the best of success in your trading today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, November 21, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups on Friday due to option expiration day.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today. Please note the following schedule for this weeks "Headline Call" schedule.
Markets are closed on Thursday due to Thanksgiving Holiday. There will be no Headline Call for Wednesday's trading, Thursday or Friday's Trading thus no TCF Trade setups will be recommended for Wednesday, Thursday or Friday.
On Option Expiration days we do not make Headline Calls and therefore do not recommend any specific TCF Trade setups (TCF=21st Century Futures).
As is often the case on Option expiration days we ended up having a virtually "go nowhere" type day as the market traded in a small 6.60 range. There was a bounce off the Hour One BreakDown lows and they traded after that in a herky-jerky type fashion eventually working the prices up towards the highs for the day around 1036-37.
On these Non Headline Call days we recommend standing aside. Please note that their will be 2 Non Headline Call days on Wednesday (the day before the Thanksgiving Holiday) and Friday (the day after the Holiday). Very often these are bullish traditional periods so let's see how things go. We prefer to stand aside on these Holiday type volume days as do most professional traders on the exchange.
Of course, there are always opportunities to trade on any day but here at TCF we will be standing aside in "position neutral". There will be many similar "position neutral" days surrounding the Christmas and New Year holidays too and these are often good times for S&P500 day traders like us to schedule extra time off for vacations or extra time with our families and friends.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We are overall bullish for today's action. Especially on a lower opening and early move down we feel that this should "feed" the upside price action today.
Let's see if we can get an early drop that does NOT correspond to a Bear Ugly type day where we see some devastating news that drives the markets lower.
We have to be very careful in interpreting the news now-a-days. The news media, which is tightly controlled, has become more of a vehicle now for manipulating complicated agendas tied in with certain powerful, influencial factors. It is clearly no longer unbiased and totally trustworthy but only to a certain degree.
We have seen how "Bear Ugly" information can be dropped into the mainstream headlines on some controlling interests whim. The question for us as traders in interpreting "Bear Ugly" days currently is, "how Ugly does the news have to be"? This question will remain to be seen. I think we will still get a clear idea of when news is significant enough to cause the markets to reel.
The real skill for traders in the coming months and years ahead will be learning to determine which news or events are genuine and which ones are being "created" to have an affect on the public to fufill a different agenda.
We will be looking to trade on the buy side today overall especially if we can get the lower opening and drop.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If our Headline Call is going to pan out then we will get a flat to lower opening and an early move to the downside. Barring any genuine Bear Ugly news this should be bullish for the markets today and may be (Now notice I said May Be) the start of a 2-3 day up move through Thanksgiving. We will be able to tell more about this after today's price responses. We would be looking to Buy the BreakDown today if the lower action sets up.
If we open higher and run up early then this could throw water on a more bullish scenario. We could still have a BreakOut Buy today with the correct TCF setup (Dow flat at the time of the B/O, Naz up +12-15 or more with the TRIN below .80 or less and VIX lower). If we open higher though we would expect the BreakOut would be more limited and would look to take profits sooner.
We would look to Sell the BreakOut if we shot up right off the open with the Dow up +80 or higher and the NAZ holding back being up only +10 or less. On a BreakOut with a setup such as this we would be shorting that action looking for the market to give us clues of strength or weakness on a pullback from the B/O to the opening range area.
Value Area: 1,033.00 - 1,036.00
We have this small VA range today created by the tight range on Friday to give us clues of the markets direction. If they open lower and move lower but run back up above this VA zone and hold above it that would be a bullish sign.
Especially significant is seeing the market hold above 1033.00 to continue to be in an upward momentum direction.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,032.25 - 1,033.25
No Trade at this Buy Pivot Target today but look for support to come in at the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1028.00 to stay bullish. We would then want to see prices climb back over 1033.00 decisively and continue higher.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,038.75 - 1,037.75
No Trade at this Sell Pivot today. Watch the +4.25 stop/pivot for further upside movement upon blowing through 1043.00 and then coming up against the Pit Bull shown below.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,044.20
Here is a big "line in the sand" for today if we get a rally going above the Sell Pivot target on a lower open, drop and then rally off those lows. If prices fluidly run through this area without much resistance then it will be a good sign of strength. Stalling here will show that we need some more specific reason or interpretation of events to really pop through this area back to test the 1051.00 area again.
Today should give us some important information for determining if have already fufilled the lower action and are ready to move up again or we are going to go and test the 1006.00 handle.
Overall it appears we are going higher but as mentioned, today will give us more information in determining that. The next goal to the upside is now 1065-66.00
Pro Trader's Action
We are going to be looking to buy a lower opening and an early move down on one of our recommended TCF trade setups. The preferred setup would be to see the first Hour One pivot be the BreakDown to give us a shot at buying.
If we do get a flat to lower opening and an early push up off of that then we will also watch for a BreakOut buy. Be careful if the markets rally early without the NAZ backing up the higher move.
Good luck today and all the best of success in your trading today. I'll see you in the action. Mohan
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Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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