Banqueiros centrais trazem neblina para Sintra

[Dwer]

Market to stage a strong rally today. If an early, fast drop occurs this will be overall bullish for the market.

Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, November 6, 2003:
Buy 1047.25 or lower/ Sell for up to +10 points.

*Buy BreakDown Hour One pivot with no Bear Ugly day news.

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning.

Well, the market gave us an exact repeat performance today by richocheting off the B/D Hour One pivot. Remember: this is a rare occurance as the market will usually not give us such a repeat performance HOWEVER our Headline Call was looking for this so we held em long.

The market took a nose dive on early Thursday's action and was attempting to bust through the lows put in on Wednesday at 1043.30 but no cigar.

Our Headline Call and Morning Call briefing had stated that TOO MANY BEARS were piling on the drops and Thursdays early drop just fed their wrong sided excitement even more.

Our subscribers however knew better not to get caught in this bearish thinking and we got long on the B/D subtracting 2-4 points to form a Buy Zone on the lows. I know it was a tough trade but they eventually smoked em up as we had stated giving us our up day. The High Five were bearish but it was not a Bear Ugly situation and that means....GET LONG.

Today should be even more bullish we expect. Here's the scoop.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are going to be looking for a full blown rally today which will essentially clean out the stubborn, excess bears and draw them over to the bullish side. After this event occurs we can then get a little more downside squashing after they (the bears) have been stopped out and are now trying to get long.

So for today we have a double scenario setup just in case the market is up to any tricks.

I am rather expecting a full on rally which takes off either from the opening price or from a Bullish BreakOut buy. If this occurs then we will be looking for that rally TO PULLBACK OFF THE HIGHS LATER IN THE SESSION.

I am DEFINITELY NOT expecting this to be a rally into the close type deal. The market is poising for a sell off once we can get the bears out of their positions and into a more bullish mood.

The current environment is echoing what I had mentioned yesterday about the 3rd term Presidential cycle and some other underlying bullish indicators. The key to a bullish environment is when you see the Bears getting way to anxious to short rallies as their "technical work" has convinced them the rally can't last.

Once you get a consensus along this line (which we are seeing building now) then you basically lock in a larger scale rally. Now, certainly there are other detailed technical elements involved and the truth is our work is based strictly on a short term day to day basis.

However I can't help but interject what I see showing up in longer term time frames when our 21st Century Futures S&P500 homework reveals it as it did during the initial stages of the Iraq War when our bullish indicators kicked in.

The second aspect of today's Headline Call is that IF we see a FAST, EARLY DROP in the markets today (which would be another repeat of Thursday's action) we want to once again look to be buyers. I am not expecting such a repeat performance again today.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:

Look for a BreakOut Buy setup with the Dow FLAT at the time of the B/O (flat= +50 or less) with the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index$) up +12-15 points. This will be the first sign. Next, look for TRIN at .80 or lower and VIX ideally lower. This should set up a "sneak Up" type rally we would want to see. I am not expecting the B/D to get hit first today but as usual, anything is possible in the markets. If our Headline Call is going to be wrong for today then the B/D getting hit first will be a negative and the market will probably sell off. No big deal. Just a wrong call. That's the way the Mop Flops once in a while. We will talk about the Buy/Sell Pivots below. Good luck today.
Value Area: 1,045.40 - 1,053.30
To give our bullish scenario for today wings we need to see the market hold up above 1053.30 especially if they pull back lower and then run up again over the top of the Value Area.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,049.75 - 1,050.75
I am tempted to want to buy this Buy Pivot Target today. Then why the hesitancy? I'm not sure. Let's go ahead and do it. If we get a pullback to this price area in the early morning near the open then let's buy this Buy Pivot target and see if we can run em up to new highs around 1061. Place a 5 point stop below entry at 1044.75 and let's see if we can smoke em up from there.

That was our first goal up target we gave you about a week ago that we hit last week if you recall. The NUMBERS HAVE RE-SET THEMSELVES AND OUR NEXT GOAL UP THE 1085.00 AREA. Whew! That's what the homework on Mohan's 18 Proprietary indicators is telling me. That would sure surprise a lot of bears.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,063.00 - 1,062.00
This price would be the new month high from October. If our rally idea is correct then we want to watch 1067.25 as a resistance area to to hold back the rally.

If they pop that out then they are going to stretch up to 1071.00 on the road to 1085.00 (not today but eventually).

The only thing that will stop this is if the Bears turn into "fickle pickles" and start getting mega bullish on us. Then guess what? We start getting short.

Remember: In trading, and especially Futures trading, "everyone loses" right? Because they are on the wrong side of the market...correct? are you with me? So what do we need to do? FADE "EVERYONE" most of the time (sometimes they are going to be right). How do you do that? Understand the type of so-called technical analysis they are using and develop a system that is ALMOST ALWAYS FADING THAT APPROACH THAT "EVERYONE" TAKES.

Welcome to 21st Century Futures. Kindly join us for a subscription if you are on our FREE TRIAL and become a regular subscriber. You will gain instant access to our S&p500 TRADING HANDBOOK. Then you will be ready to really learn this business.

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10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,046.80
We are now out of the area of CROSSOVER ALERT on the Pit Bull which I had guided you along with as we approached a close within 10 Handles of this zone. Now I also mentioned, if you recall, that if we don't see the prices get hammered lower decisively through this zone that it is USUALLY A BULLISH SIGN.

So now we are moving back up to approach those first goal up highs I gave you last week at 1060-61.00 and we are going to see what happens up there.

Pro Trader's Action
I've given you lots of information today to deal with what ever sets up. Keep your eye on the High Five for confirmation of the action and be ready for a bullish BreakOut as that is what appears to be in the cards.

I think I've covered most everything so let me leave you with a thought.

CONSIDER THIS: % Returns on capital are for bragging rights on the gold course (or gym, local club, etc)...BUT ACCUMULATED S&P500 POINTS IS MORTGAGE AND GROCERY PAYMENTS. That is what we want. The CASH$ to keep us in business as career traders and so we can advance ourselves so we can save money for nice gifts for our loved ones, charity and fun vacations. We love the nice sounding % returns but in our business CASH IS KING.

Have a great weekend and I will look forward to updating you on late Sunday night/ early Monday. All the best to you and your family who supports you in this dynamic trading business we are in...trading the S&P500, "The fastest game in town". Mohan