João Leão: Vai ser um "grande desafio" manter excedente com mais despesa com defesa

[Dwer]

Market to move higher today but be prepared to keep selling rallies as we are approaching a reversal trend to the downside.
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 31, 2003:
Buy 1047.00/ Sell 1050.00

*Buy the BreakDown Hour One Pivot and sell in final hour at the closing price area.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

Kindly forgive the abbreviated briefing as I just finished a marathon 2 day seminar with our trading friends from around the globe here in DelRay Beach, Florida and it's a bit later in the evening.

Range on Friday was again putting in a new rediculous record low of 5.30 but still using our TCF Trade setup to buy the B/D we were able to capture at least 3 points out of that range.

The market opened Flat, put in the Hour One Low at 1047.00, staged a small rally to 1051-2 area and spent most of the day in a herky jerky motion within the small range.

We bought the B/D as suggested in the Briefing for Friday and held all day long looking to get out near the highs. The prices never really punched through the highs and after waiting patiently for our 6-8 points profit range we just closed out the trade coming into the last half hour of trading.

Today's Call & Briefing:
For todays action we are looking for one more day up on an early rally and ideally a HIGHER OPENING to finish off a completion pattern which we expect will cause the market to start pulling back either later Monday in the session or on Tuesday.

If we get a fast, early spike rally upwards this could occur sooner so let's be prepared for that action.

The 1060-61 area is still the first goal upwards to complete this pattern and we may get that today. If so and there is a rally with that kind of power then it would be just what we need to get all the excess bears cleaned out of the way and get the bulls to start getting excited and jumping aboard the long side. This would feed the downside Market Force as all those turn around Bulls stops get taken out on the way down.

TCF SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We want to first be aware of the strong possibility of a BreakOut Buy today if we get the proper setup for it on an ideally LOWER OPENING in the S&P500 futures today.

If this does NOT occur and we get a HIGHER OPENING AND EARLY STRONG RALLY then look for the rally to get hit with selling mid session today. Not a sell off mind you for the day but a sell off from the early spike highs which ends up keeping the day slightly positive.

Apparently the sad weekend news about the U.S. Military worst day of tragedy since the so-called Iraq War ended is not affecting the market in a Bear Ugly fashion based on what I am seeing on the overnite globex trading. Be on the lookout for this if the general trading community changes its mind near the N.Y. Stock Exchange opening. We would look to short that action.

Value Area: 1,048.00 - 1,050.40
Watch this small, tight area for support and resistance.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,046.75 - 1,047.75
No trade at this target today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,052.00 - 1,051.00
No trade at this target today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,039.70
We are still within a CROSSOVER ALERT RANGE. A bearish scenario will first be highly visible by taking out this 1039-40 price area decisively. Then they should shoot down to 1027 without a hitch. However, as mentioned in the Headline Call we are expecting one more stretch up to that 1060-61 area to finish off the pattern.

Pro Trader's Action
Let's see if we can get long for a BreakOut buy that runs em up to the 1061 area with a flat Dow (under +50 points at the time of the B/O) and a strong NAZ. Otherwise an early rocket blast upwards off the opening on a higher opening should fade out earlier.

A special thank you from Myself and all the staff at 21st Century Futures including David, Chuck, Sue, and Paul to our great subscribers and trading friends who traveled to be with us for a great weekend at the seminar in DelRay Beach, Florida. It was truly a pleasure meeting with you all and I certainly enjoyed speaking with so many of you. I know David Nichols also was thrilled to meet many of you and we both will look forward to working with our Auto trade team in bringing you excellent service.

Let's see how the market sets up today and what we can sqeeze out of it. I expect the ranges to be opening up soon and we will be getting a bit more action in the S&P500. Just be patient and know this is just a temporary part of the business when the ranges shrink a bit.

All the best of luck and success today. Your trading friend, Mohan