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MARKET TIMING:
STOCKS: NEUTRAL (as of 08/30/02 close)
BONDS: BEARISH (as of 01/03/01 close)
GOLD: BULLISH (as of 12/20/99 close)

MARKET OUTLOOK:

The government turned down a package to save UAL from bankruptcy while Gateway let
out a negative pre-announcement. Both these factors kept a lid on buyers and let the
market move pretty much into free fall.

However, the tech market proved moderately resilient with a hold above the 1400-major
support/resistance line we mentioned yesterday. Additionally, all markets remain
above their VERY key 50dayEMA?s so the intermediate-term trend remains to the upside.

If you take a look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) you notice a
congestion channel in which the market has spent a large part of its time in recent
months. The congestion zone runs from 8250-9000, with strong resistance coming in at
8750.

We saw the market plot a head and shoulder?s formation (bearish) in the lower half of
the trading range only to reverse this setup and trade to the top of the range and
run into the ultra-key 200dayEMA just below 9000.

As a result, sellers stepped in to take the market through the path of least
resistance from a trend following perspective, which obviously would be toward the
shorter-term EMA?s.

As such, we?re now approaching the lower end of this trading range, yet remain within
the mid-zone and above the VERY key 50dayEMA (8511). As long as the industrials stay
above this zone, the bullish trend side bias remains, only in a tempered state.

Meanwhile, a move below 8500 brings a run to 8250 and the potential for a new trend
side bias to the downside and a move to the 8000-area. For now the technical read is
neutral with a tempered bullishness given the support.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) followed yet again to the upside and has now crossed
above the midpoint of our target zone from 33-36. Meanwhile, the index put in a test
of the key 50dayEMA (Green), yet closed above the ultimate 200dayEMA. As a result, we
are tempering our bearishness for now given the strong resistance and will look for a
reversal lower as an opportunity to move to bullish, or a break higher as an
opportunity to move back to fully bearish for a move above the 35-36-zone to 40. We
mentioned once we saw a spike up to around 35 on in intra week basis, we?d likely
move back to neutral the market from bearish given the propensity for a follow
through continuation move lower to the lower 20?s. For now we?re just tempering our
bearishness.

The CBOE equity put/call ratio (EPCR) was 70% Thursday following the 80% Wednesday
reading following the 83% Tuesday reading. The indicator has now backed away from the
key upper band without penetration. This was a bit surprising given the decline in
the market, but nevertheless, keeps us neutral on the market given the lack of
official indication. Unofficially, the decline in the market with the fall in fear
suggest a bit of bearishness. Meanwhile, the lower band is at 0.38, while the upper
band is at 0.88.

Bottom Line:

The neutrality derived from a turn down in the average directional movement index
(ADX) and the mixed sentiment data is beginning to unravel into a different animal of
neutrality. We?re now seeing the Dow print a potential negative side bias in the
negative directional momentum index (-DMI), while the VIX is hitting resistance, the
Rydex is losing its bearishness and the EPCR has yet to reach a true extreme in fear
even with the market decline. Therefore, the environment remains mixed only now from
a different perspective. However, technically, we?re still looking for a move down to
8500-Dow, 455-460-OEX and 1350-1380-OTC to gauge the true health of the bull run
under the pressure of the key resistance recently mentioned from 9,000-INDU,
1480-1500-OTC and 480-500-OEX. Therefore, short-term we remain neutral to bearish and
intermediate-term neutral.