Mohan 02/10/03
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1
Mohan 02/10/03
Watch for a "Too Much Too Soon" rally off the opening to sell into. If the market opens flat to lower then we are expecting continued higher prices.
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and we appreciate your joining with us today.
We got a monster sized rally on Wednesday off of a slightly higher opening and virtually no pullbacks. Our overall Headline Call was looking for bullish upside action but the market didn't give us any opportunity to get long on a lower early move which we had said would be the opportune move to buy.
We got the early run up and the High Five went into a Mega Bullish mode mid morning with the Dow up over +100 after the B/O. In staying consistent with our system we wanted to get short at the BreakOut plus 2-4 points or 1007-9.00 as shown on the chart above. The problem was that this was destined to be a huge up day consistent with what we mentioned about the first day of the month along with the opening up of the new bullish market force. We felt like we were fighting a freight train at a certain point being short and gradually the market stopped us out. (stop= B/O +6 pt. Stop plus one extra point we use when getting in a trade with a +/- 2 to 4 point zone). This would have put our stop at 1012.00 and would have produced a loss of 3-5 pts.
So on balance no serious damage at all... our system doesn't allow it.
The only way to have traded long was to have got in at the BreakOut but the Dow at that time was up over +100 bucks which is not in line with our system method of buying the B/O. Naz (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) was the strongest I have seen in a while.
Remember not to get caught up in the unnecessary emotion of "missing" a big day up. That is for amateurs. If you are seriously following our TCF Trade setups and philosophy you would understand that we don't care about such things because, "8-10 points is 8-10 points". It really doesn't matter a hoot if we get those points on a BreakDown that rises off a lower early morning drop such as we did on Monday or we catch 8-10 on a big up day with the Dow soaring almost +200 points. Who cares....it's all the same.
The hype or excitement on the media has nothing to do with consistently following a proven system and accumulating S&P500 points. What good is catching a big up day and loosing on all the other days? How is that effective trading? Real S&P500 trading is about developing Maturity in the face of a daily business where you are constantly confronted with feelings of emergency and even sometimes feelings of panic.
To stay brave, patient, consistent and steady requires strong maturity and any hyped up feelings in regards to trading profits is actually incongruent or even detrimental to real trading success. Steady wins the race!
Today's Call & Briefing:
On a day like today we have to be extra careful in picking out a TCF Trade Setup and more than usual being willing to STAND ASIDE as these days following a big up day can be tricky.
As per our Headline Call the only thing we would want to do today would be to get short into an overkill early "Too Much Too Soon" rally that would clean out all the excessive bears that piled on Wednesday's rally late in the day. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF THIS OCCURING THIS MORNING.
Otherwise, we would also entertain the idea of the market opening flat to lower and pulling back to the BreakDown first as we look to buy there for continued higher prices back to resistance.
The buy mode has opened up now and our first goal up is 1036-38 area to test the September S&P500 futures high at 1038.50. Now I am not expecting this to occur necessarily today but we should see prices stretch up to that area soon after some small pullback to support today.
I've described the only 2 setups we would be interested in trading so I won't do a TCF Trade Setups to watch for. Both the Buy and Sell Pivot targets are tradeable and I will describe how to handle those in each section below.
Value Area: 999.90 - 1,011.80
We are closing above the Value Area and that is a bullish sign with first support now coming in at 1011.00 area. If they get into this Value Area and hold below 1011.00 for 2-3 minutes then there is the possibility of retracing 50-75% of the Value area or moving down to 1002-5.00 zone. Otherwise we are expecting this area overall to hold up the market.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,003.50 - 1,004.50
Look to buy the market on an early pullback to this zone today. This is right near that bottom 75% retracement of the VA area and is a valid buy if we get down here. Selling should be contained here and continued higher prices are expected.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,023.25 - 1,022.25
On a higher opening and an early rally with the fast spike up bars associated with a "Too Much Too Soon" type rally we would look for prices to sell off from this Sell Pivot Target. So let's take the chance and short em up here if we get the opportunity. Use a 5 point stop off the original Sell Pivot at 1028.25 and let er rip.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,013.10
As described in yesterday's Morning Call briefing we saw the prices shoot up to the 1014.00 Pit Bull area and stall before pushing a bit higher. We are closing near this area now and will look for prices to stay bullish above the 1013.00 level especially if they push lower and recover to "hang up" at this Pit Bull price. As mentioned earlier we are expecting the next goal up to be in the 1036-38 area.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to be careful today as we would expect a high caution day following a big up move day like yesterday. If we get the two specific setups mentioned in Today's Call and Briefing then I am game...otherwise very willing to stand aside today.
As things reset and digest Wednesday's big move some we will have a better idea of things for Friday. Get ready mentally for some fast action this morning on a "Too Much Too Soon" setup and if that does not occur then just wait and see how they react to the BreakDown after the first hour.
All the best of luck and success today. Mohan
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and we appreciate your joining with us today.
We got a monster sized rally on Wednesday off of a slightly higher opening and virtually no pullbacks. Our overall Headline Call was looking for bullish upside action but the market didn't give us any opportunity to get long on a lower early move which we had said would be the opportune move to buy.
We got the early run up and the High Five went into a Mega Bullish mode mid morning with the Dow up over +100 after the B/O. In staying consistent with our system we wanted to get short at the BreakOut plus 2-4 points or 1007-9.00 as shown on the chart above. The problem was that this was destined to be a huge up day consistent with what we mentioned about the first day of the month along with the opening up of the new bullish market force. We felt like we were fighting a freight train at a certain point being short and gradually the market stopped us out. (stop= B/O +6 pt. Stop plus one extra point we use when getting in a trade with a +/- 2 to 4 point zone). This would have put our stop at 1012.00 and would have produced a loss of 3-5 pts.
So on balance no serious damage at all... our system doesn't allow it.
The only way to have traded long was to have got in at the BreakOut but the Dow at that time was up over +100 bucks which is not in line with our system method of buying the B/O. Naz (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) was the strongest I have seen in a while.
Remember not to get caught up in the unnecessary emotion of "missing" a big day up. That is for amateurs. If you are seriously following our TCF Trade setups and philosophy you would understand that we don't care about such things because, "8-10 points is 8-10 points". It really doesn't matter a hoot if we get those points on a BreakDown that rises off a lower early morning drop such as we did on Monday or we catch 8-10 on a big up day with the Dow soaring almost +200 points. Who cares....it's all the same.
The hype or excitement on the media has nothing to do with consistently following a proven system and accumulating S&P500 points. What good is catching a big up day and loosing on all the other days? How is that effective trading? Real S&P500 trading is about developing Maturity in the face of a daily business where you are constantly confronted with feelings of emergency and even sometimes feelings of panic.
To stay brave, patient, consistent and steady requires strong maturity and any hyped up feelings in regards to trading profits is actually incongruent or even detrimental to real trading success. Steady wins the race!
Today's Call & Briefing:
On a day like today we have to be extra careful in picking out a TCF Trade Setup and more than usual being willing to STAND ASIDE as these days following a big up day can be tricky.
As per our Headline Call the only thing we would want to do today would be to get short into an overkill early "Too Much Too Soon" rally that would clean out all the excessive bears that piled on Wednesday's rally late in the day. THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE OF THIS OCCURING THIS MORNING.
Otherwise, we would also entertain the idea of the market opening flat to lower and pulling back to the BreakDown first as we look to buy there for continued higher prices back to resistance.
The buy mode has opened up now and our first goal up is 1036-38 area to test the September S&P500 futures high at 1038.50. Now I am not expecting this to occur necessarily today but we should see prices stretch up to that area soon after some small pullback to support today.
I've described the only 2 setups we would be interested in trading so I won't do a TCF Trade Setups to watch for. Both the Buy and Sell Pivot targets are tradeable and I will describe how to handle those in each section below.
Value Area: 999.90 - 1,011.80
We are closing above the Value Area and that is a bullish sign with first support now coming in at 1011.00 area. If they get into this Value Area and hold below 1011.00 for 2-3 minutes then there is the possibility of retracing 50-75% of the Value area or moving down to 1002-5.00 zone. Otherwise we are expecting this area overall to hold up the market.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,003.50 - 1,004.50
Look to buy the market on an early pullback to this zone today. This is right near that bottom 75% retracement of the VA area and is a valid buy if we get down here. Selling should be contained here and continued higher prices are expected.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,023.25 - 1,022.25
On a higher opening and an early rally with the fast spike up bars associated with a "Too Much Too Soon" type rally we would look for prices to sell off from this Sell Pivot Target. So let's take the chance and short em up here if we get the opportunity. Use a 5 point stop off the original Sell Pivot at 1028.25 and let er rip.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,013.10
As described in yesterday's Morning Call briefing we saw the prices shoot up to the 1014.00 Pit Bull area and stall before pushing a bit higher. We are closing near this area now and will look for prices to stay bullish above the 1013.00 level especially if they push lower and recover to "hang up" at this Pit Bull price. As mentioned earlier we are expecting the next goal up to be in the 1036-38 area.
Pro Trader's Action
Look to be careful today as we would expect a high caution day following a big up move day like yesterday. If we get the two specific setups mentioned in Today's Call and Briefing then I am game...otherwise very willing to stand aside today.
As things reset and digest Wednesday's big move some we will have a better idea of things for Friday. Get ready mentally for some fast action this morning on a "Too Much Too Soon" setup and if that does not occur then just wait and see how they react to the BreakDown after the first hour.
All the best of luck and success today. Mohan
- Anexos
-
- Mohan 021003.GIF (39 KiB) Visualizado 147 vezes
-
- Mohan 021003.GIF (39 KiB) Visualizado 142 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
-
- Mensagens: 3414
- Registado: 4/11/2002 23:16
1 Mensagem
|Página 1 de 1