“Governo não baixa taxas por cedência aos lindos olhos dos empresários”

[Jetlag]

O Cramer anda a advocar em força a queda da bolsa. Sempre à procura de razões para cair.
Ontem eram os fundos e o efeito Outubro e hoje já vem com o Bush. Amanhã ou vem com outra justificação ou o mercado já começou a cair a sério.
A questão fica, qual será o trend para este mês ?

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Fear of Bush Losing Feeds This Decline"

By James J. Cramer
09/25/2003 09:21 AM EDT


"If rich people invest in the stock market, and rich people don't have to sacrifice because of the war effort, then Howard Dean, who is not a friend of the stock market, becomes president.

Ah, now there's something worth selling stocks for. You have to admit that some of this decline comes directly from the newly perceived vulnerability of President Bush. Forget for a moment that I think he can beat all of these people; if you think the economy's growth is stalled and you think it is going poorly in Iraq, then it makes all of the sense in the world to sell. It makes all of the sense in the world because I don't think you are going to get a president more friendly to people who want to make a killing in the stock market than this guy. I don't think you could possibly even create one; everything George W. Bush does, in a front- or back-handed way, is to make rich people richer. He's like a hedge fund manager in the White House!


So we see the selloff and we think the whole rally, the one engineered by massive budget deficits, lots of printed money, artificially low interest rates and no taxes for people who, like me, make a lot of money, gets swept away by any of the Democrats.

Alas, reasonable scenario? I think yes if a Democrat wins, but let me tell you why that's still not the likely outcome. First, we have a year until the election. By March, unemployment will begin to come down. That means that by the election we will have had eight positive non-farm payroll employment Fridays. That's enough to take that issue off the table.

Second, Iraq will be better, not worse, than it is now. The terrorists overstepped their bounds when they started killing Shiite imams. That's a loser strategy. One thing we know about the extremist Muslims: They can't fool other non-extremists into believing that we are doing the killing. The majority Shiites, with some education and some honest media, just aren't buying it. As long as there is a majority that is not buying into the "Americans kill imams" stuff, things will turn. This is not Vietnam, no matter how much the critics might carp on about the analogy.


So, you can make a bet that Bush is out, you can even hedge your bet. I suspect lots are doing that.

Or you can just wait until the Bush uncertainty is "in the market," something that, at this pace, will happen within two to three weeks.


And then you can come back and pick because the odds of Bush being beaten, while improved, aren't worth panicking over.

Random musings: It is not superstition that September and October are bad months. When I read that stuff, as I did this morning, it drives me crazy. I never sell because the calendar tells me to sell; I sell because I know that others need and have to sell, and I want to sidestep their selling-induced carnage. "

(in www.realmoney.com)