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[Dwer]

Market expected to Sell off today on any early rallies. CAUTION:Possible Bear Ugly day today if we get some strong bad news on the open.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Welcome back from the weekend. Glad to have you joining us for the Morning Call briefing today.

Well, Friday's option expiration proceeded as planned with a flip flop, go nowhere trading day within a small range between the 1030 and 1035 area. A waste of time for traders as we had cautioned you in the Morning Call. We just don't like to spin or wheels on these option expiration days with their convoluted signals on the High Five and mixed signals as different option strategies are being entered by the large commercials.

We prefer to simply wait for regular trading days when the one sided volume can be faded and the High Five signals are more clean and readable. As mentioned above on the chart there were no trade recommendations as we do not offer a Headline Call on these days.

Here is what we are expecting for today.

Today's Call & Briefing:
We are looking for any early rallies today to eventually fizzle out later in the session. There is also the chance of a Bear Ugly day according to some of the Market Force signals we are getting for today. We just have to see what the action and the price movements are looking like on the open but be on the lookout for some strong, negative news that knocks the markets for a loop.

If there is no such thing occurring then just blow that part of the Headline Call off and prepare for any upside action to get hit with selling later in the session.

Now one Caveat: If they open em lower and run the prices down lower FIRST but without a Bear Ugly situation with the bad news associated with the opening then we will look for prices to move higher off the lower early drop. This is not hard to figure out at all once you become familiar with our work here at TCF.

If they are not Bear Ugly but they drop em down early on a lower opening then we are going to see a reaction to the upside. Will we still be bearish for the day? Probably not as the lower opening and move lower will neutralize that until Tuesday. Overall though we want to start betting on the short side again looking to hit those rallies.

We saw how on Thursday's action of last week we hit the rally and they just barely stopped us out but with the prices only 6 points above the BreakOut that day. IE: they didn't really bust through the highs and give us a real bull showing...just a small rally off the BreakOut They also did not decisively sell off either but with the mega bullish High Five it was a pretty weak performance.

So we are expecting this along with Friday's higher open at the highs and later fizzle out to start giving the sell side a little more punch.... If we could only open up these damn ranges some.

Apparently the U.S. is getting on a stronger footing with overseas investors and central banks contributing a lot to the stock market boost so we are expecting any pullbacks to be on the light side in the current Sell Mode we are in with support coming in short term just under the 1000 S&P500 handle...say around 997.00. Other than that it appears we may be on a short grind back up to the good old Dow 10,000.

I remember what a big deal they made at the exchange when that occurred the first time how the numbers kept toying with the 10K level before they popped the champagne corks. It was really a riot with CNBC going full slap happy on their commentary...just a total crack up with the goofy cheering and everything.

Anyway, now we are inching our way back up there but certainly with a more solemn stance as so many have been cleaned out since those days of the first approach to that number and all the predictions for Dow 20K that were coming out.

Holding under 1038.50 today is bearish. Holding below 1027.75 is especially bearish with this number just under the Buy Pivot target. If we get the Bear Ugly action today OR we get a very bearish High Five that creates a Sell Reversal off of the Buy Pivot target (see TCF Trading Handbook for details on this trade) then we will be holding below this number. With this price action occuring we will soon visit the Pit Bull at 1024.00 area for some first level support decisions.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:We want to be on the lookout for a Bear Ugly market off the open as mentioned. Check the Trading Handbook for details. Overall we would look for a strong gap lower on the opening with very negative news being offered as to why the market is getting hammered. We would look to go short on the B/D after the first hour of trading is finished to capture our 8 point trade if things setup right.

If the Bear Ugly situation is not setting up then we will be on the lookout for the lower B/D to find support and move higher. Depending on where this occurs in the price action we would look to buy the B/D minus 2-4 points to compensate for the bearish High Five. It will be tricky however if we are below the Buy Pivot target as we would favor that short Reversal as primary.

The Buy Pivot Target becoming a Sell reversal trade would occur if the prices blew through our --4.25 stop/pivot at 1024.50. A small reflex rally would get us short at the 1028.00 area if the High Five were bearish.

If we are not getting the above described action then we will want to look to be buyers on the BreakDown plain and simple if the High Five are not that bearish and it's just a pullback off a lower opening without all the fireworks. Just be aware of the importance of this 1028.00 number and how holding below it is a bearish sign.

Value Area: 1,032.00 - 1,035.60
If we open below this 1032.00 Value Area bottom then prepare for bearish action. A lower move could see the market reflex bounce up to this VA and then find resistance here at the 1032-33 area. Be on the lookout for this if they do open lower and attempt to rally back.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,028.75 - 1,029.75
Let's leave this pivot alone and concentrate on the Hour One pivots today. If the above setups occur as mentioned above then it will be plain to see how the market is reacting to this Buy Pivot Target. By comparing the price of the Hour One Pivots we should have a clear roadmap of where to trade em today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,037.75 - 1,036.75
Let's leave this Sell pivot target alone today and see how the Hour One pivots react. We can watch this price for resistance later after we have seen the opening reaction.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,023.60
The market is preparing to stretch lower down here and challenge this number. Our call for the Sell Market Mode is expected to eventually see prices go down and challenge the S&P1000 handle area. This Pivot Bull price will be the first challenge on the way down there.

Pro Trader's Action
Today I expect we will get some more excitement in the markets and some follow through on sellng either from early rallies or from some possible surprise negative news. Just remember that if we do not get a Bear Ugly opening and reaction with negative news then just erase it from your mind. Don't try to "force" a Bear Ugly market on one that isn't really there.

Remember, psychology is 90% of trading and methodology is only 10%. You can give a truly accurate and clear trading methodology to any trader but developing the necessary skills to trade that methodology once becoming a bit familiar with how the S&P500 operates is largely a psychological game. The real skill development will come from your daily trading in the market and becoming highly familiar with all the various nuances that occur in the S&P500 arena. There is no way to accomplish this other than getting into the action and learning the TCF Trade setups with as much precision as you can.

JOIN ME IN FLORIDA FOR 2 DAYS OF INTENSE TRAINING IN THE TCF SETUPS on NOVEMBER 1-2. Mark Douglas, who is my most highly recommended Trading Psychology Coach, will be joining us to assist you in bringing your S&P500 trading to the next level.

Contact our office right away at (800)806-4801 to reserve your spot. Seats are selling our rapidly for this event and we expect them to be gone by the end of the week or so.

We will go over all the extreme details of the TCF setups and how you can hit these setups daily with accurate precision. We will work hard but also have lots of fun and relaxation being right on the beach in Del Rey at the Marriot.

Let's see which side of the market sets up today and either way we will be ready for em. Good luck and all the best of success today. Mohan