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[Dwer]

No Headline Call today due to Roll over to December Contract. Special Memorial Thoughts and Prayers today for the 911 Catastrophe.

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

Today is a special memorial day for the 911 catastrophe as our prayers and thoughts are with the victims of this tragedy. May we all gain strength in dealing with the truth surrounding this terrible event.

Today is Rollover to the December S&P500 futures contract. We do not offer a Headline Call on these special days and do not make trading recommendations. Due to the large amount of transactions as the December futures contract becomes the front month we find it better to stand aside and "let the dust settle" so to speak.

Be sure to now change your quote symbols to ES Z03 on the emini futures and SP Z03 for the big cars along with your charts as today we will be watching December only. December S&P500 closed on Wednesday as follows: H)1019.80 L)1007.50 O)1018.00 C)1012.00

For your observation today the Buy Pivot target is: 1006.40-1007.40 and the Sell Pivot target is: 1017.70-1018.70

I am not recommending trading at any of these Pivot Targets today. Wednesday was a very interesting day as we had all the makings of a Bear Ugly day with the almost 5 point lower gap and heavy down market. We also saw the High Five put in very bearish readings right off but we just didn't have any negative news. The market had the characteristics of a "sneak down Bear Ugly" type day which I have discussed here before. This certainly turned out to be true later as news was released about the new (another) so called Bin Laden tape which aided the markets in selling off.

In truth this market was due for a good hammering as we have been looking for. We had mentioned that our TCF underlying indicators had rolled to a Sell Mode on Thursday Sept. 4th with the High of the day at 1029.50 and the same high on Friday. Monday put in a slightly new higher high at 1032.70 and that's all they wrote for now at least.

On our Headline Call we were looking for a reflex bounce off the opening and we got a very, very weak one if you look at the chart. However, this is not what we had expected and our Headline Call was wrong on this. With the later sell off the call was fulfilled somewhat better with the lower action but as I had also mentioned we were expecting a tricky day which it certainly was.

Over the last year or so of doing these briefings I have often talked about the (what I call) "Fool Moon Days". These days occur on the Full moon (which was Wednesday) and I have pointed out in the past that they are very frequently associated with rather odd trading events or unusual market movements. You can find more detailed comments about these Fool Moon days in the TCF archives if you have any interest. Personally I just find it interesting how the full moon days can often coordinate with unusual changes in the market but I am not planning on mentioning them on a regular basis but mostly like today in passing.

We had suggested buying the BreakDown on Wednesday IF the market was not setting up for a Bear Ugly day. Well, as mentioned above it was very tricky today and with the NAZ getting slaughtered it was not a good idea to look to buy the B/D for an 8 point bounce. What was odd was we got the EXACT --4.25 stop/pivot price of 1016.25 as the B/D (are they watching our numbers or what), a small bounce, a trade back through it BUT not a really true reflex bounce back to the Buy Pivot to create the Sell reversal trade. The reason is we like to see the prices blow through the stop/pivot and then make a reflex reversal move in a brisk fashion ideally. Still, the slow bounce was there and the prices hit our 1019.50 (Buy pivot becomes sell resistance minus 1 point) price 8 TIMES and then fell off. So again, this whole day was a typical Fool Moon day where these patterns occurred but neither of them (buying the B/D and selling the Buy Pivot minus 1 point) really setup as a strong, genuine TCF setup.

Now I know from the emails I got today (and there were a bunch) that many of you shorted that 19.50 action. Congratulations if you did because you made some nice dough$ if you held short through the collapse. There was up to EXACTLY +10 points available on holding short from the 1019.50 number. I just have to report here what actually happened according to our TCF setups and we did not officially get short. Very interesting, unusual day.

Today's Call & Briefing:
No Headline Call today therefore no TCF trade setups will be recommended You may find today to be a good day to take some extra time to research the markets. If you are coming to one of our seminars then you might want to get Mark Douglas new book "Trading in the Zone" which is available at any book store and study up for his appearance at the TCF seminar. You will get some very brilliant insight from this book and I highly recommend it.

In fact, here is a quote I keep on my trading desk from Mark's Book:

"If you can learn to create a state of mind that is not affected by the markets behavior, the struggle will cease to exist. When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy. At that point, you can take full advantage of all your skills, analytical or otherwise, to eventually realize your potential as a trader."

Value Area: 1,012.30 - 1,020.70
These VA numbers are for the September contract but will be changed tomorrow to reflect today's first day of the December contract.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,008.00 - 1,009.00
See Above Buy Pivot listed in the recap if you are monitoring today's trade.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,020.25 - 1,019.25
See above Sell Pivot target in the recap if you are monitoring today's trade.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,017.30
We are now under the Pit Bull and as such will be looking to adapt a "Sell Rallies" mentality. We are still at a Crossover Alert so we will be watching this number for new resistance now. This is also the December contract Sell Pivot target for today.

Pro Trader's Action
A special memorial day today for 911 and rollover to the December contract. Let's allow the new numbers for the Dec. contract to get settled in and we can caught up on Friday. We started opening the downside on Wednesday pretty strongly compared to the recent ranges that have been occuring. Although we are still in a small range environment we expect that they could open up more anytime as volatility increases. As mentioned yesterday the first goal lower is 998-999 area so if we get a crunch down there we will expect some good support initially. I get the feeling that we may go down and test the next level lower below that over the next few weeks which would be the 970 area. We just need to see how the market reacts to Wednesdays crunch and where the resistance lies. I am rather expecting a reflex rally today but no official call.

All the best of success in your trading. Mohan