Portugal consome 5% de nuclear, mas centrais no país ainda são tabu

[Dwer]

Watch for small reflex rally today but look to keep shorting for lower prices to come.

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining with us today.

We were continuing to look for lower prices on Tuesday which is what we got along with the warning about these darn low ranges which continue to plague the market.

Tuesday was no exception as we did get some sell off as expected and from a strategic BreakOut point BUT the low ranges kept Tuesday locked in a 750 boundary.

Our TCF Trade setup was to Sell the BreakOut at 1028.00 which you can see occurred at 11:33 est and again at 11:43est. The market began to drift lower and held lower all day just barely missing our exact 8 point profit target later in the session. You would have wanted to cut out of the trade at a certain point when the 8 point goal was not realized and take some profits. More on this on today's ASK MOHAN section.

Some of you may have accidentally interpreted Tuesday as a "Buy Pivot Target becomes Sell resistance" Trade Setup when prices first hit 1021.00. That was NOT the correct TCF trade setup as it is necessary for prices to "blow through" that lower --4.25 or 1020.75 to qualify. The whole idea of those trade setups is that you want to see that --4.25 stop/pivot fully REJECTED by the market and then stage a reflex rally back to the Buy pivot to reverse. This did not occur at all. Still even if you had got caught in this you were able to survive the trade as lower prices came in later.

So overall a nice day of trading with profits up to +6-7 points depending on how you handled the action.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today we are expecting some sort of reflex rally off of the lower action on Tuesday and later in the session see the weakness set back in. Actually a higher opening and early move up will favor the sell side and lower prices. We do expect, as mentioned, however to get some kind of reflex bounce whether that occurs in the morning early session or throughout the day.

This may make for a rather tricky trading session so be extra alert to watch for the exact TCF setups to occur. I am finding more and more of our newer subscribers who have joined with us in July are now getting very adept at reading the setups. The first month or two is going to require some good solid study. Anything good and genuine is worth working for isn't it? Has anything easy or cheap ever had any REAL value? Usually not.

TCF Trading methods are no exception and the best thing to do is face the task, go to work and do some research and profit like our subscribers are doing.

We are still expecting a slow and gradual erosion in prices over time but I am only pointing that out because that is what the Market Force indicators are clearly telling me right now. As eulogized on yesterdays briefing we do not usually make regular longer term calls on the market and so please don't characterize us as "Bullish" or "Bearish". You do NOT want to get caught up in this mentality when you are professional intraday trader. It ruins good daytrading ability. Only following a proven system and being flexible counts.

Because the Market Force indicators rolled into a Sell Mode for the underlying on Thursday September 4 I am merely pointing that out . We use both the shorter term indicators and our intraday Market Force readings to setup trades and we often will FADE certain indicators when they go into aberration. So each day our main focus is going to be on which side of the market will be the EASIEST to make money on. Frankly, that's all I care about in trading. That's where the whole thing flies whether you are trading a one lot emini position or managing large money.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We had the sell off from the BreakOut on Tuesday so we are more or less expecting the BreakDown to be the first Hour One pivot hit today. If we get a lower opening and an early move lower we will most likely be looking to BUY the BreakDown unless there is a Bear Ugly opening.

Bear Ugly markets are just that. Ugly,extremely negative news based hard gap open lower selloffs that send the High Five right into the Ugly camp Now Tuesday morning had that appearance with the High Five and the small gap lower but it wasn't a genuine Bear Ugly situation at all. There was no strong bad news on TV about the markets and the market wasn't really that heavy.

If we get a BreakOut as the first Hour One pivot on a HIGHER OPENING then watch for a set up for once again selling the BreakOut if the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) is holding back being up only +10 points or less. If this is the case and this occurs with a higher open and early run up then this should make the case for continued lower prices.

We gotta see weakness on any rallies that occur though otherwise watch out for a BreakOut Buy with the Dow flat and the NAZ strong being up +12-15 or more. If TRIN is lower (under .80) and the VIX is down -.50 or more then we could get a BreakOut buy.Be sure to check the Trading Handbook for all the details on these setups to make sure you are up to speed.

Value Area: 1,023.20 - 1,027.60
Trade holding below 1023.20 is bearish for today. Overall holding below 1028.00 is going to set up our first goal lower of 999.00 on a larger scale down move. For today this 1028.00 top of the Value Area is going to be an important pivot. Trade moving above this but then falling back into the Value Area is a good sign of market erosion about to come also.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,020.50 - 1,021.50
No trade at this pivot today. Let's just watch this area and see how the prices respond.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,028.00 - 1,027.00
So sell at this target today. We need to see how the BreakOut reacts to this number and the relation to the Top of the Value area which this is. A lower early drop should find RESISTANCE up here. 1032.25 is the +4.25 stop/pivot and ideally this would hold back the buying for lower prices. Just use this area to get short in relation to the BreakOut and this double confirmation will keep us in a safer position in relation to this zone today.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,015.40
We are closing in on the Pit Bull and as such are now in CROSSOVER ALERT which we had talked about yesterday. This means to be on the lookout for a move down to this area that could blow through it to the other side changing the markets bias to a "Sell Rallies" mentality.

Pro Trader's Action
We got the beginning of what I think started last Friday after we had alerted you to a shift in our underlying Market Mode to sell in the context of our Market Force indicators. Again, I repeat, this does not mean we are Bears or Bearish but means that we are looking for overall the best trades to be in the Sell Rallies setups. This could easily be reversed too if we go into what I call ABERRATION on the Sell Mode and certainly I will alert you to that.

For today we want to be looking to Buy drops if the market opens lower and runs lower early unless we get in a Bear Ugly market. I am still waiting for a genuine Bear Ugly market so our newer subscribers can academically see what a real one looks and feels like. I think one is coming very, very soon so let's be ready and on the lookout.

We are ready to trade either side of the market today depending on the opening setup. Let's see what the market hands us.

All the best of luck and success. I'll see you in the action. Mohan