Queda dos juros diminuiu rendibilidade da banca até março

[Dwer]

Very small ranges continue to plague the market. Expecting lower prices so continue to stay on the sell side of the market.

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good morning and thank you for joining us today.

We got the higher opening and the early rally we expected in our Headline Call but the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) was very strong and the bears just kept piling on the rally causing prices to "hang up" near the highs all day. Because of this we did not get the follow through sell off later in the day we were expecting to complete our Headline Call.

It actually worked out OK after all anyway as there were NO TCF HOUR ONE PIVOTS HIT until after our cut off time of 1:30 est. As you can see from the notes on the chart the BreakOut finally hit at 1:36 est and so the trade was voluntary at that point. Now if you looked at the NAZ being as strong as it was the trade was better off left alone. If you decided to be mechanical about it and sell the B/O due to our Headline Call and the BreakOut Buy NOT setting up then you should have been able to capture 1-4 points of profit with NO HEAT ON THE STOP. Our TCF setup would have got you short just 1 point from the high at 1031.75 which was the B/O.

So although not a big winner at least the result was a relatively painless trade taken later in the day that produced a little bit of profit. Really, the market went no where significant today but just picked up the lost pieces from Friday's drop.

Interesting facts about our TCF Briefings making money recently on the short side with the so-called Bullish market: Taking the last 7 sessions and TCF briefings starting with Thursday August 28 and ending Monday September 8 the Dow is up a grand total of 253 points with small daily gains (+40,+41,+107,+45,+19-84,+83) and the S&P500 is up near 28 points. That is really not a very significant rally if this is a bullish market environment. IF and that's a big IF you were a convinced bull and bought the S&P500 or emini on August 28 close and held through Monday you would have a grand total of about 28 S&P500 points.

Our TCF trade setups during that same period, mostly shorting the rallies with very little heat on our stop on any of those days and not getting stopped out at all ...produced about 28 points also. The idea is that we took LESS RISK using precision TCF shorting setups and getting the same results of a buy and hold bullish strategy through last week. That's the nature of a good system.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our TCF Market Force indicators are in a condition right now that occurs about once a year or so where they are getting stretched to extremes in the readings. As mentioned above we have been staying on the short side primarily over the last 2 weeks with some intermittent buy trades in between. As long as our Market Force indicators continue to get pressed in this way then we just will keep recommending the short side.

For those who are new to the TCF Morning Call it's very important to understand that we have our primary Headline Call where we make a directional call for the next day AND we also have our "TCF Trade Setups to Watch for" section which focuses on specific trading strategies. When you fully understand our Trading Handbook you will know how to apply these various trading strategies EVEN IF THE HEADLINE CALL IS GOING TO BE WRONG. In other words, we show you EXACTLY what to look for under specific market circumstances in order to get long or short even if our Headline Call is going to be wrong. No big deal.

As you become highly adept at following our work and the TCF setups you will be able to read the market very accurately while you adapt to any condition that is occurring including what we call "position neutral" such as on Monday.

For today we are going to be especially alert in watching for certain conditions that would cause the market to weaken. At the same time we will be suggesting a setup that would get you long the market if the parameters are there. This is always the case with our daily briefings but if you are new to reading our briefings this bears repeating so you don't think that we are stuck on any one side of the market.

Sometimes readers who take the free trial and do not study the Morning Call thoroughly enough think that we are "bearish" or "bullish". Nothing could be further from the truth as we are intraday traders and our bias can change from day to day or even intraday during the session.

As of late (which is a rare circumstance) we have been continuously recommending to "Sell Rallies" in these Morning Call briefings but that does not mean we are "bearish". No way... Not at all. Our Headline Call is an indication of what our 18 proprietary indicators are telling us which side of the market it will be EASIEST TO MAKE MONEY ON. I don't know about you but I got into this trading business to make money.

I have seen that some traders, after years of trading, seem to forget the goal of making profits and simply nursing their losses they become unconsciously focused and caught up in "being right" and "being wrong". They are living in a state of frustration or anger unconcious of it. It's actually a form of trading psychosis that occurs and we have developed our specific Magic 7 Internal and External Trading Affirmations to assist in cleaning out this stuck energy. I am bringing this up because we don't play any games here at TCF or pull any punches. I am here to really help you with your trading and this will require some genuine honesty on your part if you are to succeed. Please use our TCF Trading Affirmations daily, everyday......I sure do. They are available on our site for easy access.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Today could end up as a pivotal day in the markets so we want to be on the lookout for both a BEAR UGLY type day and a BULLISH BREAKOUT BUY DAY. We have described both in great detail in our manual and you can study them there as a subscriber. Look for the Dow to be up less than 50 points at the time of the B/O before looking to buy and with a strong NAZ.

We will also want to be on the lookout for the BreakDown to occur first of the Hour One pivots and this could be also setting up for a Buy today if we are not getting a Bear Ugly trading day setup.

One way the market could end up moving lower without a direct Bear Ugly day is by seeing the trade we call a "Buy Pivot Reversal". This occurs when the prices move below our Buy Pivot stop/pivot at --4.25. More details on this in the Buy Pivot Target section below.

Value Area: 1,028.90 - 1,031.70
The Value Area top came in very near the highs. This is where the most trade was facilitated at the most volume. Prices holding in the Value Area and movng below this tight range will be mildly bearish for today. Holding above the top of the VA will be mildly bullish but very susceptible to pullbacks into the VA zone.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,025.00 - 1,026.00
Both the Buy Pivot Target and Sell Pivot targets are too close to the closing price for us to recommend them today. However, as mentioned above we could get lower prices today by seeing the stop/pivot at (-4.25) 1020.75 get run lower. If that occurs and the High Five are bearish then we want to go short on a reflex bounce back to this pivot. Refer to the Trading Handbook and you will understand this extremely valuable trade setup.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,034.50 - 1,033.50
No Trade at this pivot today. We will wait for the first hour to finish and then evaluate the Hour One pivots.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,012.40
We are closing in on this number but are still a distance away before we need to issue a CROSSOVER ALERT. This will occur when we get within 10 handles of the Pit Bull. For now we want to keep buying larger drops above this price zone.

Pro Trader's Action
As intraday traders we really don't care where the markets go. Our Morning Call briefings are unique in that we give a highly accurate directional call but that does not mean we are stuck on that side or any side of the market. On Monday the nature of the High Five, the late BreakOut after our 1:30 est cut off time for entering the TCF setups and the structure of the pricing had us in "Position Neutral" all day.

Going into trading each day you want to rely on our Headline Call and look for that bias to pan out but if you see completely conflicting indications in the market then obviously it behooves you as a professional trader to trade based on that information. Our TCF Trade Setups are the primary means by which we make money because we only trade at those points. We do not put on a trade just because "the Headline Call is Bearish". Sometimes I get emails to this effect from new traders who have not thoroughly studied what our briefings are intended for. They are definitely NOT FOR LAZY TRADERS.

Please don't attempt to trade off these Morning Call briefings without having studied our TCF Trading Handbook. Kindly join us for a subscription, access our Handbook immediately here on the site, and study each trade setup carefully. I have made it very easy to understand and the trade ideas, which occur almost everyday, are easy to learn and trade.

Good luck today and all the best of success. Mohan