Valor a que a banca avalia as casas sobe mais 20 euros para novo recorde

[Dwer]

Look to sell a higher opening and early push higher in prices today as markets continue to move lower into the close. An early fast drop on a flat opening will most likely be bought for a bounce off the early first hour lows.

Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and welcome back from the weekend.

You can see as we get into the "back to business" mood as the summer comes to a close the markets are starting to respond with some volatility. As you know we have been continuously hitting the rallies short as the most effective strategy for grabbing S&P500 points. We have been able to pick off steady profits with some nice 8 pointers along the way. I recapped the last 10 sessions last week on the Wednesday September 3rd briefing.

Well, on Friday they finally started to crack some as the underlying reality of an overcooked bullish market started to be called into question. Those of you who have been with us a while know that I have been identifying the underlying bullish conditions since the middle of the so-called Iraq war. Now we see on the cover of Barrons magazine that there is a "rosy consensus" (Barron's words-not mine) in regards to many financial strategists. This does not necessarily bode well for the markets and this tends to fall in line with our recent reports of our Market Mode indicators rolling to bearish.

Right now ALL of our Market Force indicators are suggesting a further sell off and we need to be prepared for some continued, CONFUSING downside moves. For those of you who are relatively new to S&P500 trading but are highly familiar with other trading instruments such as options, stocks, mutual funds, trading funds such as Rydex, or single stock futues you have to remember that S&P500 futures are COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from all of them. Yes, it's true, and you will see this over time. The movements of the S&P500 and the relation of those movements to all forms of other types of trading vehicles is a bit DIFFERENT.

You constantly need to be thinking in a "fading" mentality or floor traders scalper type mentality where you are consistently looking to take positions opposite of the continuously, generated wrong side consensus. I know that's a mouthful but I am doing my best to put this powerful conception and mindset into words so you can gradually rise to this understanding that all Professional S&P500 traders have realized.

So we shorted the 1027.75 area right as they busted through the BreakOut. Some of you may have front ran the B/O by just a bit as you knew we were looking to get short in a big way. Nothing wrong with that. You have to work your own stategy that is comfortable and works for YOU within your grasp of the trading ideas in these briefings. The market pulled back exactly 10 points on the low of the day right into the heat of that early, fast collapse we booked the handles and we took the rest of the day off.

I am getting more and more emails each day from those of you who are GETTING WHAT THESE TCF BRIEFINGS ARE ABOUT and let me tell you, it really revs me up to see you profitable and makes me more enthusiastic to keep delivering the dynamite. It's Monday so let's get cranked up for what I think is going to be a tricky, volatile day with some more downside movement.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Monday's are the most bullish of the week but we started something on Friday that I think is going to cascade into lower prices. Ideally we will get a higher opening on Monday and an early run up. This would help clean out some of the excess bears that piled on later in the session on Friday when they saw the "rosy consensus" might not be a bed of roses after all. Do I sound TOO Bearish? Not at all....just reading you what our TCF Market Force indicators are saying. I try and keep Mohan out of the way other than just as a "translator".

Let's once again look for early rallies to get hit with more selling. On the opposite side THIS TIME if we get a fast early drop ON A FLAT TO SLIGHTLY LOWER OPENING we are going to be willing to buy the lower numbers. Now this is only in relation to our TCF strategies and if we have to do this I am going to be extremely fast at the draw and ready to get out on a clip higher. I will especially be watching for a +5/-5 type move IF (and that's a big if) we get long and the market does not respond by giving us our 8 point bounce.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: Be on the lookout FIRST (and most favorable to our strategy) for a HIGHER OPENING and a nice early rally. If we get that and the High Five and the Dow/NAZ setup is NOT CONFIRMING a BreakOut Buy then we want to look to Sell the B/O for a another lower move.

If we get the B/D as the first Pivot we will be looking to BUY if we do not have a Bear Ugly setup off the open.

Today has a strong potential for a Bear Ugly setup so be aware of that and look for a surprise gap lower opening and an early crunch that sets the High Five storming into Bear Ugly rankings. If you see this (and these Bear Ugly openings are often a little shocking) just think....Get short.

If we get a mild slightly higher or lower opening and no strong, bad news like the kind associated with a Bear Ugly day then we will have to be looking to Buy the B/D if that is the first pivot hit. If the High Five are particularly bearish then we may look to subtract 2-4 points from the lows to get a little bit better price.

Value Area: 1,018.60 - 1,025.60
If we see the market drop at some point below the 1018.60 bottom of the VA and continue to hold lower then this will confirm the bearish action. The ideal setup would be to see the prices open a bit higher, rally up and then fizzle out holding below this price.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,016.75 - 1,017.75
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 1012.50 as a key point for prices to find support or run lower.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,028.75 - 1,027.75
No trade at this pivot today. Let's watch this area as a key resistance area but wait for the Hour One pivots to give us the best clue as to how to trade today's action. Remember, bullish Monday's may need a little more time to play out before falling apart later in the day.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,008.60
We are still in "Buy Drops" mentality and will be exercising this idea IF we get a lower opening and early drop that is not a Bear Ugly market off the open with severe bad news causing the markets to reel.

Pro Trader's Action
Today will be a little trickier than Friday. We want to be on the lookout for a higher opening and early rally to "feed" the further downside action. The instructions I have given you thus far should be pretty clear and just refer to your Trading Handbook for any further clarity you may need. I am planning on doing lot of response to questions this week on the Ask Mohan section so if you have anything that is puzzling you send it on in and I will try and address it. Be sure to read through all the Ask Mohan archives as you may find your answer already in there as I have covered lots of ground already.

Good luck today and let's see if we set up for a larger scale downside move. Remember though, we may need to see this bullish Barrons cover play out a little just so the rig doesn't look too obvious to the public. LOL. They won't fool us here at TCF.

Good luck with your trading today and all the best of success. Let's get this week off to a good rock and roll start and see if they can smack this market lower. Mohan