Empresas do Estado cortam mais de 5 mil milhões à dívida

[Surfer]

With the stock market in the midst of its biggest rally since the bear reared its growling head three years ago it's prudent to ask "Can it last?"
Hopeful bulls citing "improved growth expectations" and a "turning point" for the economy have dominated recent financial news. But under the bullish facade of the stock market, some cracks are beginning to appear.

Break out

Some three months ago Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX: news, chart, profile) broke out above 965 from a massive year-long bottoming formation, heralding further gains. But after following through to the upside by a relatively scant 50 points, the market has since languished in a narrow consolidation area.

Astute technicians know that follow-through is a very important factor in establishing the validity of any breakout. A lack of follow-through makes any breakout suspect.

The significance of the breakout in the S&P 500 suggested that the market should have continued moving sharply higher. Said another way, we'd expect a wildly bullish event to engender a wildly bullish response -- but as I've often said , when what should happen fails to occur, the opposite becomes increasingly likely.

When a relatively high probability event fails to materialize it indicates an inherent weakness that makes a contrary event more likely.

Drifter

Time yields the next clue to the market's underlying weakness. The S&P 500 has spent nearly 2-1/2 months drifting aimlessly sideways. In comparison, the rally that began in mid-March ran for 3 months.

In a powerful bull trend we would expect the market to spend more time rallying in its early stages than drifting sideways, particularly in the wake of a very important breakout. Certainly this isn't always the case, but the longer the market drifts without posting new highs, the more suspect the preceding rally becomes.

Other warning signs have flashed. While the Dow and the Nasdaq recently posted new 52-week intra-day highs on Aug. 22, the S&P 500 failed to confirm. A broad market measure like the S&P 500 lagging the other indices can be construed as a bearish divergence if the condition persists. The Wilshire 5000 has also had some trouble extending its uptrend.

Not to mention that those new highs were swiftly rejected with all the indexes closing sharply lower, resulting in what technical analysts refer to as "reversal" sessions. Reversal sessions tend to portend counter-trend moves.

Financials top

Further bearish indications appear in the financial stocks. Take a gander at the charts of Merrill Lynch , Citigroup and JP Morgan ,Bank of New York Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Charles Schwab and smaller firms like E-Trade and Tradestation

All of their chart patterns exhibit highly significant potential topping formations: head & shoulders, double and triple tops. To put it very simply, these patterns represent a condition in which buying pressure is no longer sufficient to push the stock to a new high, the market falters, and prices fall through a previous low indicating that sellers are now in control.

In most of our examples, the topping patterns have not yet been confirmed, (by a decline through a previous low), but all are developing so clearly that it's hard to imagine their failing. And trouble for the financial stocks often spells trouble for the rest of the market.

By: Mark Rostenko