Mohan 28/08/03
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Teria sido uma boa estratégia abrir curto no sell pivot como descrito no setup, ou mesmo um bocadinho acima e agora fechava-se a posição, ja seriam +/- 5 pontinhos. O amigo parece querer subir novamente para fechar entre os 997 e 994.
Enquanto os tubarões não voltarem de férias vai ser este chove-não-molha.
Enquanto os tubarões não voltarem de férias vai ser este chove-não-molha.
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
Mohan 28/08/03
Keep selling rallies on a higher opening. CAUTION: Tight ranges have shrunk even more. Be prepared to stand aside in position neutral.
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 27, 2003:
Sell 995.75/ Cover for breakeven to -2.00 (Sell B/O)
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Thank you for joining us this morning.
Well, the range on Wednesday shrunk to the most ridiculous lowest range I have seen on a trading day in the S&P500 in 10 years. Just a complete go nowhere day. However, in spite of this our Headline Call stated that if the market ran lower early to expect prices to move higher and consolidate in the middle of the range which is EXACTLY what we got.
We wanted to Sell the B/O on Wednesday and that is the first Hour One pivot we got as expected. We sold em right at the B/O number of 995.75 as shown on the chart above. There was some pressure to the downside but they kept pushing towards the higher side of the small range too. Just when the upside was looking favorable the lower spike candles would start forming as they came back down. After this see saw action took us into the later part of the session I decided to just tighten up the stop to a small 2.25 loss but it never got hit at 998.00 so was able to cover at scratch (break even). Some may have taken a small loss so we recorded that on the TCF Trade setup summary.
There really is not a lot to say about Wednesdays action. The High Five were neutral/ bearish and the downside appeared to be the favored side. There was some underlying bullishness from yesterdays Slammer reversal off the lows. When we discussed about Bear Ugly markets on Wednesday's briefing one question came in from a trader asking where to get the news to determine if the market is Bear Ugly. The answer is that of course you can just watch CNBC on a Bear Ugly day when the market gaps off the open and that news will be the prominent featured news as to WHY the market is dropping. You can also log on to www.quote.com, click on their main featured Market news story where it says, "read more" and that will take you to a daily updated page which gives an excellent synopsis of all the important market news. Earmark this page and you can refer to it daily as a quick, brief read as to what the consensus ideas about the market news are.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We want to keep selling rallies for today looking for the downside to emerge again. However, be on the lookout for another low range day and be willing to stand aside if the prices aren't moving in a volatile way. The way to get a clue about this is simply to look at the range between the Hour One pivots. On Wednesday that range was 3.25 points. Let's not try and be too technical today but just see if we can get a clear Sell off the Sell Pivot Target and compare that with the B/O if that is the first Hour One pivot.
Look for the trade to move decisively to the downside to create a bearish appearance on the High Five. If we see the prices breaking down and the ranges expanding some then try and get our regular 8 points. However, if you see that the same type of see saw action is occuring like Wednesday then be willing to stand aside and probably for Friday too. Just take an extra long weekend and get some other things accomplished....like relaxing and having some fun.
We work hard each day as S&p500 Traders and it's vitally important to take the time off you need to recouperate. If you have a fun hobby or outside activity you have been wanting to persue then take it up now. It will actually help you trade better. I am planning on building a recording and practice studio here in Southern California so I can play more music on my spare time. That's my main hobby and I really miss getting out and doing those concerts. So I'm walking my talk here and seriously taking steps NOW to increase this extracurricular activity.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH OUT FOR TODAY: As mentioned, be willing to stand aside if things go dead again today. Try and get short at the sell pivot target unless the prices open right on the Sell pivot target or higher. Then watch to see how things react to the +4.25 stop/pivot target and take it from there (more information on this below).
We can Sell the B/O again if the market is NOT setting up for a bullish BreakOut. Use caution IF NOT CLEAR. Be very willing to take a long weekend.
I just want to stay on the sell side today unless, as mentioned, there is a strong bullish BreakOut.
Value Area: 994.40 - 996.80
Small range here does not give us much information. Trade below 994.00 and holding should take em lower. This was a big support number on Wednesday and was the approximate opening price.
Buy Pivot Target: 993.00 - 994.00
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 988.75 if we get short and the Buy Pivot is not holding up. This will be an initial strong support number.
Sell Pivot Target: 998.00 - 997.00
Let's go ahead and sell the Sell Pivot Target today. Use a 5 point stop and hooooold short. See if we can take em down today. Use advice given above to get out early if the ranges are all tied down in a Go nowhere situation like Wednesday.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 995.80
We are hanging right at the Pit Bull. How do you like that? Traders who are new to the Morning Call and the 10 Day Moving average can see how powerful this is. I named this indicator that we show each day after Marty Schwartz and his excellent book, "Pit Bull" which is about his life as one of the most incredible and edgy futures traders out there. He was very big in the S&P500 and Bond market. He would put on up to 500 Big S&P500 cars without blinking an eye. Kindly read this book and learn about DISCIPLINE from Marty Schwartz...the Pit Bull.
Pro Trader's Action
The ranges have shrunk, traders are waiting for the "Big Guns" to come back from their vacations and the market is sitting at a "Crossroads". The Pit Bull is leaving us undecided about a market direction but overall we feel there is some downside to go before we resume our way up. How much downside? Not that much. Maybe 30 handles or so at most. Perhaps around 963.00 area would be an estimate. Our TCF Market Force indicators are underlying in the Buy Drops mode but we are expecting a small aberration against that mode in September. So we just play the TCF trade setups with the right High Five configurations along with the Headline Call and we will make money. Your skill and research attention in studying the market is YOUR GUARANTEE.
If we get a continued tight range why not take some extra time away from the markets live and go back through 10-20 days of one minute charts on the S&P500. Study them in relation to the TCF Morning Call briefings in the archives and just see how your clarity is in seeing how the setups unfolded. Often in the morning you may be rushed to read up on the parts that will give you the trade ideas. That's fine but to go back and really study how the TCF trades setup is invaluable.
I will be doing a Morning Call as usual tommorrow and who knows...maybe we will get some action today to report on.
Good luck and all the best of success in your trading, Mohan
Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, August 27, 2003:
Sell 995.75/ Cover for breakeven to -2.00 (Sell B/O)
Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Thank you for joining us this morning.
Well, the range on Wednesday shrunk to the most ridiculous lowest range I have seen on a trading day in the S&P500 in 10 years. Just a complete go nowhere day. However, in spite of this our Headline Call stated that if the market ran lower early to expect prices to move higher and consolidate in the middle of the range which is EXACTLY what we got.
We wanted to Sell the B/O on Wednesday and that is the first Hour One pivot we got as expected. We sold em right at the B/O number of 995.75 as shown on the chart above. There was some pressure to the downside but they kept pushing towards the higher side of the small range too. Just when the upside was looking favorable the lower spike candles would start forming as they came back down. After this see saw action took us into the later part of the session I decided to just tighten up the stop to a small 2.25 loss but it never got hit at 998.00 so was able to cover at scratch (break even). Some may have taken a small loss so we recorded that on the TCF Trade setup summary.
There really is not a lot to say about Wednesdays action. The High Five were neutral/ bearish and the downside appeared to be the favored side. There was some underlying bullishness from yesterdays Slammer reversal off the lows. When we discussed about Bear Ugly markets on Wednesday's briefing one question came in from a trader asking where to get the news to determine if the market is Bear Ugly. The answer is that of course you can just watch CNBC on a Bear Ugly day when the market gaps off the open and that news will be the prominent featured news as to WHY the market is dropping. You can also log on to www.quote.com, click on their main featured Market news story where it says, "read more" and that will take you to a daily updated page which gives an excellent synopsis of all the important market news. Earmark this page and you can refer to it daily as a quick, brief read as to what the consensus ideas about the market news are.
Today's Call & Briefing:
We want to keep selling rallies for today looking for the downside to emerge again. However, be on the lookout for another low range day and be willing to stand aside if the prices aren't moving in a volatile way. The way to get a clue about this is simply to look at the range between the Hour One pivots. On Wednesday that range was 3.25 points. Let's not try and be too technical today but just see if we can get a clear Sell off the Sell Pivot Target and compare that with the B/O if that is the first Hour One pivot.
Look for the trade to move decisively to the downside to create a bearish appearance on the High Five. If we see the prices breaking down and the ranges expanding some then try and get our regular 8 points. However, if you see that the same type of see saw action is occuring like Wednesday then be willing to stand aside and probably for Friday too. Just take an extra long weekend and get some other things accomplished....like relaxing and having some fun.
We work hard each day as S&p500 Traders and it's vitally important to take the time off you need to recouperate. If you have a fun hobby or outside activity you have been wanting to persue then take it up now. It will actually help you trade better. I am planning on building a recording and practice studio here in Southern California so I can play more music on my spare time. That's my main hobby and I really miss getting out and doing those concerts. So I'm walking my talk here and seriously taking steps NOW to increase this extracurricular activity.
TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH OUT FOR TODAY: As mentioned, be willing to stand aside if things go dead again today. Try and get short at the sell pivot target unless the prices open right on the Sell pivot target or higher. Then watch to see how things react to the +4.25 stop/pivot target and take it from there (more information on this below).
We can Sell the B/O again if the market is NOT setting up for a bullish BreakOut. Use caution IF NOT CLEAR. Be very willing to take a long weekend.
I just want to stay on the sell side today unless, as mentioned, there is a strong bullish BreakOut.
Value Area: 994.40 - 996.80
Small range here does not give us much information. Trade below 994.00 and holding should take em lower. This was a big support number on Wednesday and was the approximate opening price.
Buy Pivot Target: 993.00 - 994.00
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot at 988.75 if we get short and the Buy Pivot is not holding up. This will be an initial strong support number.
Sell Pivot Target: 998.00 - 997.00
Let's go ahead and sell the Sell Pivot Target today. Use a 5 point stop and hooooold short. See if we can take em down today. Use advice given above to get out early if the ranges are all tied down in a Go nowhere situation like Wednesday.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 995.80
We are hanging right at the Pit Bull. How do you like that? Traders who are new to the Morning Call and the 10 Day Moving average can see how powerful this is. I named this indicator that we show each day after Marty Schwartz and his excellent book, "Pit Bull" which is about his life as one of the most incredible and edgy futures traders out there. He was very big in the S&P500 and Bond market. He would put on up to 500 Big S&P500 cars without blinking an eye. Kindly read this book and learn about DISCIPLINE from Marty Schwartz...the Pit Bull.
Pro Trader's Action
The ranges have shrunk, traders are waiting for the "Big Guns" to come back from their vacations and the market is sitting at a "Crossroads". The Pit Bull is leaving us undecided about a market direction but overall we feel there is some downside to go before we resume our way up. How much downside? Not that much. Maybe 30 handles or so at most. Perhaps around 963.00 area would be an estimate. Our TCF Market Force indicators are underlying in the Buy Drops mode but we are expecting a small aberration against that mode in September. So we just play the TCF trade setups with the right High Five configurations along with the Headline Call and we will make money. Your skill and research attention in studying the market is YOUR GUARANTEE.
If we get a continued tight range why not take some extra time away from the markets live and go back through 10-20 days of one minute charts on the S&P500. Study them in relation to the TCF Morning Call briefings in the archives and just see how your clarity is in seeing how the setups unfolded. Often in the morning you may be rushed to read up on the parts that will give you the trade ideas. That's fine but to go back and really study how the TCF trades setup is invaluable.
I will be doing a Morning Call as usual tommorrow and who knows...maybe we will get some action today to report on.
Good luck and all the best of success in your trading, Mohan
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- Mohan 280803.GIF (40.15 KiB) Visualizado 393 vezes
Abraço,
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
Dwer
There is a difference between knowing the path and walking the path
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