Venda do Novo Banco pode representar 8% do M&A na banca europeia este ano

[Pata-Hari]

"Sell Pivot Target: 996.25 - 995.25
No trade at this pivot target today. We will just wait for the Hour One pivots to do our thing.
"

Ou seja?

[Dwer]

Market to stage a small bounce today which we will be looking to short for a pullback later in the day.

Trade Setup Summary for Monday, August 25, 2003:
Buy 988.00/ Sell 993.00 +5pts (Buy B/D and sell at the B/O)

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and I hope this meets you well and ready to trade.

Let's start the day off with our continued study of the excellent book by John Hayden called, "The 21 Irrefutable Truths of Trading". Today's lesson is on FLEXIBILITY.

"All traders will experience new problems that they do not know how to deal with and feel uncomfortable dealing with. However, once they have overcome a particular problem, they develop a feeling of certainty that they can overcome it again. Unfortunately, there seems to be a constant supply of new problems that enter into a trader's life. As the ability to be flexible increases, the ability to resolve new problems also increases. Successful traders know that flexibility improves their perception of the marketplace and also improves how fast they can react to a new market environment. Flexibility allows successful traders to fight their fear because it forces them to be less rigid in their thinking. They know that as the ability to be flexible increases, their level of resourcefulness will be increased. The amazing thing about flexible thinking is that it enables you to perceive alternative methods to accomplish your goals."

One of the most brilliant trading psychology experts in the industry, Mark Douglas, has this to say about Flexibility.

"The less acceptance you have for different types of market behavior, the more the market seems to turn on you like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. In one moment it is satisfying all your needs; in the next it is like a greedy monster taking everything away. This Dr. Jekyll/ Mr. Hyde characteristic of the markets only represents your own mental inflexibility to flow with the changes and your lack of understanding- that you give yourself to the best of your ability what you end up with, out of what is available. And by the same token, what you lost, you gave away. You can't change what the market is doing. You can only change yourself in a way that allows you to perceive what it may do next with increased clarity and objectivity."

I feel very fortunate to be able to say that Mark Douglas will be speaking at our San Diego, California TCF seminar on October 4-5.

The market opened lower and ran lower today signaling us to be ready to buy the BreakDown if that was the first Hour One pivot hit. We had suggested this on the Morning Call on Monday stating in more words or less that, "If they open lower and run lower and we are not in a Bear Ugly situation then we want to buy the B/D for a bounce".

We got the B/D action as the first Hour One pivot at 11:10 est and they bounced em up to the BreakOut pivot at 993.00 where we would have wanted to take 5 points and call it a day. Why is that? Due to the mixed High Five readings. Generally, we would want to make a decision at the next Hour One pivot on what to do. With these contracted ranges lately there is not enough volatility to be trading clearly off these Hour One pivot reversals or follow throughs so in a situation like on Monday it's often better to just say "Mission accomplished" even though it was only 5 points. That turned out to be a good deal grabbing 5 points in a 7.20 range day. Super cool.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is going to be a little trickier than the last 2 trading sessions. I am expecting an attempted rally today that should end up being rather weak. In fact, if they do rally in the morning session I am expecting the rally to fizzle out later in the session and give the market a neutral to lower close. For a weak forecast for the day we are going to be looking for prices to hold below 991.00. Indeed, if we see this we would expect today could even end up a down day.

We also want to be on the lookout for a possible BEAR UGLY day. As most of you know who have studied our Trading Handbook, a Bear Ugly day is where the market GAPS LOWER off the open and the reason is associated with some very negative market affecting news. When this occurs the High Five go into Bear Ugly rankings usually right after the first 20 minutes or so of trading...sometmes sooner.

What would throw water on a Bearish type day as described above (and this has potential for today) is a Bullish BreakOut Buy to occur where prices run up 8 points above the Hour One BreakOut high. I don't even want to rule this out by saying that it is not expected. This is what I mean by today being a bit more tricky than the last 2 sessions. There is potential for surprises on both sides today and then a reversal off that surprise move. I am able to identify this possibility based on 2 specific proprietary indicators I developed. They are part of our group of 18 proprietary indicators that give us the ability to give Crystal Clear Headine Calls each day with a high degree of accuracy. These two indicators and one in particular I call a Slammer, usually identify days where the market will make a prominent move in the early session only to see that move reversed in a big way. So let's be extra cautious today.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If the market opens higher and runs higher first then let's look to Sell the B/O. Be extra alert to watch for the possiblity of a BreakOut Buy with the Dow below +50 and NAZ strong up +12-15 leading the way. If TRIN is below .80 this should "feed" the B/O Buy. If this BreakOut Buy setup IS NOT OCCURING then we want to fade the BreakOut attempt. If strong and bullish but the Dow is up +60 or more then look to add 2 to 4 points to the B/O and go short in that zone. It will give you a better price and a better deal in relation to the 6 point stop.

As mentioned above, watch for a Bear Ugly opening gap lower and negative news associated with it. Kindly read the Trading Handbook for details on this setup.

*Special Note: I had mentioned on Monday's briefing that reports were showing excessive selling of shares by "Insiders" or high ranking corporate shareholders. Well, CNBC did a special report on this today and presented it as a strong reason to be Bearish. Guess what? That's "everyone" speaking now. On our Morning Call we usually like to FADE the concensus "everyone". Just be on alert about a potential RALLY coming now in September. CNBC also mentioned how September is usually a bad month for the stock market....Hmmmm.
Value Area: 990.00 - 993.00
This small Value Area is an important zone as trade below this zone and holding lower will confirm a Bearish move. If we trade above it let's be on guard to see if the prices pull back into this zone and continue to struggle to get above it. Such price activity should confirm the case for another move lower.

Buy Pivot Target: 989.00 - 990.00
No trade at this pivot target today.

Sell Pivot Target: 996.25 - 995.25
No trade at this pivot target today. We will just wait for the Hour One pivots to do our thing.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 994.20
We are at a CROSSOVER ALERT with this pivot. We are barely closing below it. Prices upon crossing over the Pit Bull yesterday did not drop hard to the downside right away. This may cause consolidation around this area and lately this has been bullish for the markets.

Pro Trader's Action
Overall we are maintaining a Bearish posture waiting to see if the market is going to take a hit. Monday's CNBC special on the excessive corporate insider share selling made me think twice now that it has become a consensus idea. However, our TCF Market Force indicators are looking for a move down. We have been identifying this for the last several sessions as we shorted the rallies on most of them. Friday melted down a bit more and Monday was a consolidation. As cautioned, today could be a bit more tricky than the last few sessions so let's be ready to really see what is happening at the BreakOut today when that gets hit. We may go Bear Ugly right out of left field today but if so we will be ready for em.

Good luck in your trading today. Be sure and read the trading psychology works of the two experts quoted above, John Hayden and Mark Douglas. Don't try and blow this aspect of trading off. Psychology is THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT OF TRADING far beyond just methodology. You have to remember that even though you may have studied the TCF setups and read the manual the ability to actually trade them in real time is developed through clear and positive trading psychology. These authors can assist you in your expansion of this part of your trading life.

I'll see you in the action if there is a clear TCF setup. Mohan