Rutte elogia Trump por fazer Europa "pagar em GRANDE" os gastos com defesa

[Pata-Hari]

caramba, nem tinha reparado, foi violento!

[Smile]

Quebrou para baixo o pivot B/D... Com o vix e o trin a ajudarem bastante.

Agora é ver se aguenta abaixo dele ou volta para valores a cima deste pivot... Mas acho que até a Europa fechar não vai haver muita acção. Depois...

[Smile]

Em relação à primeira pergunta, normalmente ele nunca compra ou vende na primeira hora. Só em casos de Bear Ugly (mercado a abrir em gap down com os indicadores todos bear ugly) ou Too much Too son (abertura com forte subida (8-10 pontos) sem acompanhamento dos indicadores).

Pelo indicador que saio agora acho que isto vai mesmo para baixo.

Os inventórios 0.1% (exp. -0.1%)...

Vou esperar pela primeira hora...

Em relação à segunda pergunta está respondida no post do Figas das férias...

[Pata-Hari]

hmmmmmm, ele nunca compra na primeira hora, ou compra?

E parece ter reagido... num percebo nada. Smile, vais ter oportunidade de deixar aqui os posts com o mohan ou podes mandar-me por mail, please? é que o figas vai de férias...

[Smile]

Pelo que vejo dos indicadores isto vai para baixo e o tal buy pivot está a muitos pontos da valor actual.

Chamo a atenção para o parágrafo do Sell Pivot do Call de hoje, que basicamente diz se abrir-mos nesta zona o trade fica cancelado.

O trin está muito feio, mas o vix não acompanha...

É melhor esperar pelos pivot de primeira hora para ver qual é tocado ou quebrado em primeiro lugar...

[Pata-Hari]

bem, estamos practicamente em cima do buy pivot sugerido por ele, mas o tick, o trin estão bearish e e mesmo o vix.x deu um pulinho. A MER ainda num mexeu. E agora? é um mega bear (ou lá como é que ele lhe chama)?

[Pata-Hari]

Portanto, 979.5 é o nosso buy pivot se isto for para descer....

[Figas]

Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, August 12, 2003:
No TCF Trade setups today due to not having a Headline Call on the FOMC meeting day.

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Thank you for joining us today. A special welcome to our visiting traders from around the globe and new subscribers.

We do not make Headline Calls on the FOMC meeting days due to excessive volatility that is usually occuring on these days. We also do not make Headline Calls on Option expiration days of which one is coming up on Friday.

Tuesday's response to the FEDs leaving interest rates alone was rather muted at first but gathered steam in the later session and into the close. I had mentioned the other day that we had rolled to a Buy Mode on the Market Force indicators. This occured last Wednesday. What usually happens is that we see an initial up phase with higher +800-1000 TICKs as the market opens up the new direction. Later as that initial higher move tires out we start to see the +800-1000 TICKs again. This was the case on Tuesdays move after a week of small but gradual higher price moves.

The key will be to see if the pullbacks are hit with heavy bearish selling or if the Bulls try and buy the dips. If we get the bullish response to the lower prices then we should see further price erosion. Bears jumping all over the drops will stabalize prices and we would be looking for them to rise gradually to fufill our first goal higher which is the S&P500 1020.00 handle.

Here is what we are looking for today.

Today's Call & Briefing:
Our Headline Call today is looking for a higher opening and early move up that gets hit with selling. We are going to try and use the Sell Pivot target in the way described below in that section but be willing to see how the first hour transpires also. Depending on the open it may be wise to wait for the first hour to pass and compare the Hour One BreakOut price to the Sell Pivot target. We may not get a chance for that so that is why I have suggested a means to view the action around the Sell Pivot Target and the +4.25 stop/pivot. If we get the selloff from higher prices and the High Five are showing particularly negative traits then you may want to be willing to hold out for extra lower prices. Just keep in mind the 3 floored level of support as shown below with the corresponding numbers near the bottom of the Value Area.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:As mentioned, watch for the BreakOut to be the first Hour One pivot hit. If this is the case compare that with the Sell Pivot target and the +4.25 stop/pivot. Look to get short there and hold for 8-10 points lower and maybe more. If we get a lower opening and early move lower (but not a signal for a Bear Ugly type day) then look for a different response. We feel that this type of opening could cause support to come in and prices to head higher still. Althouth we favor the short side for today on higher early prices there is a strong case to be made for support coming in with the Crossing over to the bullish side of the Pit Bull and the Market Force indicators.

Value Area: 979.30 - 985.80
Most of the price activity on Tuesday took place in this zone until the later push higher into the close. This same approximate price zone has been providing support and resistance for the last few days. The key to Wednesday is if we get the expected higher opening and run up in prices the test will come on a pullback to this price at the top of the VA. Although we are looking for a pullback or lower prices on Wednesday this 985.80 area could provide support for a further climb to the 1020.00 handle which is our first goal higher in this new Buy mode with the Market Force indicators. Trade pushing through this VA and below 979.30 is bearish.

Buy Pivot Target: 982.50 - 983.50
No trade at this pivot today. Watch the -4.25 stop/pivot below 982.50 at 978.25 for double support at the bottom of the Value Area.

Sell Pivot Target: 994.00 - 993.00
Let's not sell this sell pivot target directly but wait to see if how prices react to it. If we get an open on this Sell Pivot target then usually we would look to cancel the trade. For today let's monitor 998.25 and see if that will hold back the buying. We can then short this price after an attempt to push through the stop/pivot. The idea is to see how the resistance holds up before shorting at this number.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 978.40
We slowly pushed above the Pit Bull on Tuesday and established the trade in the "Buy Drops" category. Here again we have a TRIPLE floor of support coming in at the bottom of the VA, the -4.25 stop on the Buy Pivot target, and now the Pit Bull.

Pro Trader's Action
Our Plan as outlined above is to look for the higher opening and early push up to get short at the BreakOut if possible. We will then look for support down to the Buy Pivot target and just below that at the bottom of the VA.

The important thing to watch out for today is for a mild selloff from the higher opening we are expecting that gets tons of bears jumping all over the drop. We have rolled over to a Buy Mode with the TCF Market Force indicators and as such want to be on the lookout for strong signs of support that frustrate the Bears. We are looking to short today too but based on the setup I see here and the rolling to the Buy Mode we want to watch for the tell tale signs and adjust our bias accordingly.

Let's see if we can get short on a higher opening and run up during the first hour of trading or be prepared to buy an early drop with the High 5 in decent shape.

All the best of luck and success. Mohan

[Figas]

August 13, 2003