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Trade Setup Summary for Monday, July 7, 2003:
No TCF Trade Setups today as there was no Headline Call. (whenever there is no Headline Call offered then we do not record any trade setups as we are standing aside in the markets).

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today.

We did not offer a Headline Call on Monday due to the holiday and not having a full trading day to crunch numbers with on Thursday. This is our normal procedure as the vital information that is generated the previous day in trading gives us the input we need to present a crystal clear Headline Call.

As we had discussed on the previous two Morning Call briefings, learning patience in trading is crucial to success, especially in the S&P500 business. One very interesting thought to remember in regards to this is that if you are a committed career trader like the majority of our subscribers are then if you plan to trade for another 20 years (like I do) then you have over 4000 Trading Days Left! Wow! Think about that for a minute.

When you contemplate this reality it takes all the unnecessary urgency out of "having to trade" just because the market is open ...or even if it makes a big move "without you". I cannot stress how vitally important it is to understand this especially when you become a member of our Morning Call briefings. Why? Because we give you daily setups to make 8-10 point trades. When you realize that "10 points is 10 points" no matter how or when you get them then it becomes irrelevant if the market made a move that you didn't get in on. In other words, these larger scale 8-10 point trades are going to become COMMONPLACE for you when you learn our TCF setups where as most S&P500 traders would be shocked to catch such a large move.

On Monday the market gapped up huge to the 992.50 area (about 10 handles above previous close) and ran strait up from there. This type of opening after a holiday especially can cause a tremendous emotional rush but the key for Pro traders is to not get sucked into these emotional moves. Our precision system that we use has been tested over almost a decade of trading conditions and we rarely will trade on the open. It is EXTREMELY RISKY to do so and because, as mentioned above, our system regularly grabs 8-10 point moves there is no reason or need to chase the market on high risk moves. Once the market ran up during the first hour and created the Hour One B/O at 1004.25 the prices pretty much just traded in a 4 point range just above the 1000.00 handle.

On Wednesday's Morning Call from last week we spoke about the fulfillment of the 1002.25 number when we said," we have an upward target goal of 1002.25 and there is even a shot it could get fulfilled today or tomorrow". So this number was anticipated to get hit during this holiday trading. The secret to success in the S&P500 futures lies however in being able to position your self in trading setups where you can capture regular points in the market regardless of where the market goes. If you look back over the last 2 trading sessions you can see that the Morning Call had actually avoided this whole ultra volatile hoopla which occurred during this holiday period. I know the Pros will be impressed with this and over time you will see the tremendous value in this as part of our system. Also nice for saving the strain on the neurological system too.

Today's Call & Briefing:
On today's Headline Call we are going to be looking for continued higher prices but are expecting the later rallies to fizzle out. There is a good chance that any higher openings (and especially gap up openings) will sell off right away. However, we would expect such an early sell off to find support, push higher, and then fizzle out later in the session.

We had several early stabs at +1000 TICKs on Monday which often signals a topping in the markets. Still, we need to consider that the early Monday session was part of the holiday volume and that the higher move needed to play out some. Today should be a good day for catching the primary TCF setup for the day as the indicators are calling for lower prices ideally after an early attempt to move higher. Here is how we would look to catch that primary move today.

TCF TRADE SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY:Let's look to sell the BreakOut of the first hour high if that is the first pivot of the Hour One pivots to get hit. We will focus on this pivot and compare it to the Sell Pivot Target at 1006.50-1007.50 to see if we get a correlation between the prices. I am not going to directly recommend the Sell Pivot Target today but instead suggest waiting for the first hour to transpire. As we get back into the regular volume flow it is often better to do this rather than strike at the Pivot Targets right off the first hour. If the High Five are bullish at the time of the B/O then look to add 2-4 points to that B/O high. This method is generally for our more experienced subscribers but I want to suggest it and get you used to the idea. The idea is that if we see the Dow rally early today but the NAZ (our nickname for the Nasdaq composite index) is only up +10 or less at the time of the BreakOut then this will set up the short. If this occurs but you see the TRIN lower (under .80 or so) and the VIX flat to lower then usually you can hold out for a few points above the exact B/O price and get a better deal. The trade setups will still work out nicely just hitting the trade at the exact Hour One pivot but if you can become adept at getting a slightly better price it takes some of the heat off the stop and adds more points to the profit too.

If we get the BreakDown as the first pivot hit of the Hour One pivots then we are going to look to BUY that pivot. For today I am expecting the B/O to get hit first but if the B/D does occur first then we need to look to be buyers on the early drop for a push up off that low. The real important key for today on buying the B/D is to determine if the market is pushing lower for a buy or has entered a BEAR UGLY state. The Bear Ugly setup occurs USUALLY OFF THE OPENING with a gap lower and some bad news associated with the lower open and early move lower. When this occurs the High Five will inevitably show Bear Ugly readings according to our High Five table right away.

You can view this table and explanations under the section called "The High Five" right on our home page.If you are a new subscriber or on a trial subscription just watch this early drop today and then read about how we RECAP it tomorrow. It's very important to learn first how we are trading these markets by watching in real time and learning from that. You can always "paper trade" the idea and watch in that fashion too. Just be thoroughly honest with yourself when you do analyze the market with "paper trades" as that is the key to really learning from your mistakes.

Value Area: 1,000.90 - 1,004.50
Prices holding below the top of the Value Area at 1004.50 will be showing the same resistance as Monday. You can see from the chart above how the market kept getting knocked back whenever prices tried to climb above the BreakOut price. Due to the bullish High Five however prices were holding up. Monday was a very good observation day especially if you are new to reading our briefings. Why? Because you could see how the BreakOut pivot was showing resistance but you could also see why it was NOT A SHORT TRADE there because of the strong, bullish nature of the rest of the High Five. This is an extremely valuable tool (being able to read the High Five) and will make and save you thousands of dollars over your trading career REGARDLESS OF WHAT TRADING INSTRUMENT YOU USE all for less than the cost of a cup of coffee (or spot of tea) a day from your trading friend Ol' Mohan.

Buy Pivot Target: 995.00 - 996.00
No recommended trade at this target today. Observe and look for a correlation with the BreakDown Hour One pivot.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,007.50 - 1,006.50
No recommended trade at this target today. Let's observe what happens at this number and compare to the BreakOut to see if the prices correlate for a short trade.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 982.50
You can now see if you are new to watching the Pit Bull 10 Day Moving Average how the prices held this number on Thursday after some stalling and CROSSED OVER to the bullish side strongly again. We do not use this number necessarily as a price point for a trade but for observation of which side will hold. We now will be looking to maintain a "buy drops" mentality as prices move down to test this area. If the market is really bullish in here then they will hold this support and keep moving higher.

Pro Trader's Action
So now we are getting back into the regular trading after the holiday is complete and are looking forward to some regular ebb and flow type markets as the summer fully kicks in. With the big money managers heading out for vacations over the next several weeks we aren't expecting any super radical moves.

With the June low at 963.50 and the June high at 1014.80 you can see that we are so far in a 50 handle range bound area in between these numbers. July 1st Tuesday stretched slightly below that number putting in the low at 960.50 and here we are quickly back up at the June range highs. This suggests bullishness because of the speed of recovery to the highs after popping out the June lows but this will remain to be seen.

As mentioned we are expecting a pullback after some further stretch slightly higher today and we will know more in regards to the overall direction as the week progresses.

Let's see if we can nail 8-10 points shorting the B/O today or catching a lower move early for a pop higher off the B/D. All the best of luck and success. I'll see you in the action. Mohan

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As minhas desculpas mas só agora pude colocar o post:

Market to push higher earlier but look to sell any rallies for lower prices into the close.