Wall Street fecha semana sem rumo. Grandes tecnológicas pressionam

[Surfer]

«...To me, the bear is over; the bull may not yet have begun...»

É bonito e bom de ver quando vemos pessoas a tomar uma decisão, nomeadamente quando é de forma publica.

Agora veremos no futuro o que o Cramer tem para nos dizer caso os mercados quebrem os minimos de 2002.

Caso contrário é caso para dizer que o homem até percebe disto! Eheheheheheh....Pelo menos justica a forma quase descontrolada e explosiva como fala dos mercados.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Extreme Readings Don't Always Equal 'Sell' "

By James J. Cramer
05/27/2003 08:59 AM EDT


"For the last three years, the two most important indicators imaginable were the VIX and Chartcraft's Investors Intelligence numbers. Every time the VIX fell dramatically and every time the Investors Intelligence bull readings spiked, you got hammered if you stayed long. A corollary, the overbought sentiment oscillators, which subtly coincide with the VIX and the Investors Intelligence numbers, also gave you a sell signal when things got too heated.

To put it another way: For three years, when you got extreme readings, you gave up all of the performance -- and then some -- that you picked up for being in the market.


Statistics culled from the era demonstrate this coincidence handily. The SPX took a nosedive of 10% during the three months following every VIX plunge to 21 or lower. That's extraordinary. Every time the VIX got down there, the bear market rally ended. Those who stayed in were pummeled. Data for the last three years of Investors Intelligence readings shows a similar pattern after every plus-50% bull reading. (Now that number is even higher.)

That's the reason I insisted to readers that they had to take something off the table every time we got to these extremes.

Now, though, we must ask ourselves, why isn't it working? Why haven't we had a big selloff with the VIX and the Investors Intelligence numbers where they are? Why haven't we been hammered?

The answer is that these two statistics don't work the same way in bull markets that they do in bear markets. For much of the '80s and '90s, the VIX traded as low as 20 and nothing negative happened. It meant nothing. You could make no money gaming it. Statistics I have seen (and I am very grateful to my sources but have to keep them anonymous) show me that the average return is greater than 3% during any three-month period that the VIX was this low from 1986 to 2000. That's right, a gain of 3%.


The Investors Intelligence numbers are even less correlative. I can show you extremes in bullish sentiment in the last 30 years that produced dramatic rallies after the readings were reached. The Investors Intelligence data has meant very little in a bull market.

Does that mean we are in a bull market now? I don't want to draw that conclusion. I just want to shed light on the notion that just because we have extremes on the VIX and Investors Intelligence readings, we don't have to sell.


As I have been saying, the ball is in the bears' court when it comes to proving we are still in a bear market. To me, the bear is over; the bull may not yet have begun. But the simple fact that the VIX/Investors Intelligence sell call hasn't worked this time around should be enough to worry those who are still fighting the last war. "

(in www.realmoney.com)