Um post muito interessante
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Bem escolhido, Ulisses!
Ora aí está um artigo que não me importava mesmo nada de ter escrito ou subscrito!
Embora já saibas que a minha forma de estar no mercado ñada tem a ver com "guerras" bull / bear mas apenas com sinais técnicos, o artigo tem muito para reflectir, independentemente do facto dos lucros nestes últimos anos terem vindo indubitavelmente pela tomada quase constante de posições curtas...
Abraço,
Cem
Embora já saibas que a minha forma de estar no mercado ñada tem a ver com "guerras" bull / bear mas apenas com sinais técnicos, o artigo tem muito para reflectir, independentemente do facto dos lucros nestes últimos anos terem vindo indubitavelmente pela tomada quase constante de posições curtas...
Abraço,
Cem
- Mensagens: 715
- Registado: 18/4/2003 1:58
Um post muito interessante
Hoje à tarde, um dos analistas do Realmoney, deixou um post muito interessante sobre esta questão bull/bear. Aqui fica:
Be Smart -- Use Emotions
4/22/03 01:12 PM ET
James De Porre`s
"Watching the action today makes me think about how tough it is for many of us who have prospered in this long bear market to become bullish, even if only on a temporary basis. What is particularly interesting is how bulls are generally regarded as fools for not understanding the bearish case.
Bearish arguments always seem to have more intellectual appeal than the bullish case. Why is it that there are so many more bearish intellectuals than bullish ones, not only now but in a roaring bull market? The reasons this market is doomed are many and logical, but the reasons that support a bull market always sound like hopes and dreams rather than any sort of rigorous analysis.
Don't let your intellectual rigor keep you from appreciating the irrationality of the market. The reasons we move up don't have to make a lot of sense. What happens on a day like this is that we inch higher as the "I'm being left behind" emotional buying kicks in. Lots of the buyers have no confidence that the bear market is over, but they hold their nose and do some buying so they don't underperform.
There is a fine line between holding strong convictions and being unduly stubborn. Bears are not going to be converted easily, but as this market drifts higher, the pain of being left on the sidelines will simply become too great no matter how much they believe that the move is unjustified.
Volume looks like it is coming in fairly well, breadth is expanding nicely, and there are plenty of stocks making strong moves. The trend is up, and you know what they say about fighting the trend. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
Be Smart -- Use Emotions
4/22/03 01:12 PM ET
James De Porre`s
"Watching the action today makes me think about how tough it is for many of us who have prospered in this long bear market to become bullish, even if only on a temporary basis. What is particularly interesting is how bulls are generally regarded as fools for not understanding the bearish case.
Bearish arguments always seem to have more intellectual appeal than the bullish case. Why is it that there are so many more bearish intellectuals than bullish ones, not only now but in a roaring bull market? The reasons this market is doomed are many and logical, but the reasons that support a bull market always sound like hopes and dreams rather than any sort of rigorous analysis.
Don't let your intellectual rigor keep you from appreciating the irrationality of the market. The reasons we move up don't have to make a lot of sense. What happens on a day like this is that we inch higher as the "I'm being left behind" emotional buying kicks in. Lots of the buyers have no confidence that the bear market is over, but they hold their nose and do some buying so they don't underperform.
There is a fine line between holding strong convictions and being unduly stubborn. Bears are not going to be converted easily, but as this market drifts higher, the pain of being left on the sidelines will simply become too great no matter how much they believe that the move is unjustified.
Volume looks like it is coming in fairly well, breadth is expanding nicely, and there are plenty of stocks making strong moves. The trend is up, and you know what they say about fighting the trend. "
(in www.realmoney.com)
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