Ao minuto: Praças europeias respiram de alívio, indiferentes a possível violação de cessar-fogo

[Pata-Hari]

Walker Market Letter

April 3rd, 2003

http://www.LowRisk.com

...............................................


Our Signal Strength is now at 3. Our model is now completely
out of the stock market.

I have updated my 1929 comparison charts. To my knowledge I
was the first person to publicly made this comparison, and
these charts are still incredibly compelling three years
later. You can see them at:

http://lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm


I have included a market commentary below.



// -- MODEL UPDATE -- //

LowRisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 3 (on a
scale of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)

***
Graduated Strategy - 100% money markets as of 02/06/2003
Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98
SuperBull - 100% money markets as of 02/14/03

**********


Welcome to the "fog of trading".

It is hard to watch the news for more than an hour or two
without hearing about the "fog of war" - at least if you
are watching the news in the United States (we have
Walker Market Letter readers all over the world).

For the uninitiated, the term "fog of war" basically
refers to the idea that you rarely get clear, accurate
information during a war.

And this war is no different - we are getting unclear,
inaccurate information... but this time we are getting it
instantaneously. It is the same fog of war, but delivered
at blazing speed.

And that is what the stock market has been reacting to
over the last couple of weeks. Completely understandable I
suppose, but pretty crazy when you take a step back.

And that, folks, is the current "fog of trading".

If there is anything harder than handicapping the market,
it is handicapping a full scale war that is being played
out at lighting speed... but that is what the traders on
the floor have been trying to do. The market rallies on
good news for coalition troops, and it sells off on any
bad news for coalition troops.

However, against the war backdrop, the market is still
reacting to more "normal" forces. The bottom in mid March
came after the market hit EXTREME oversold conditions.

Then, a little over a week later the market had traveled
to the opposite extreme - hitting EXTREME overbought
conditions. On March 21st the market topped out.

And the REALLY big backdrop is that we are still solidly
locked in a bear market. We have been in this bear market
since early 2000. Good news on this war would bring a
relief rally, but it will not bring an end to this bear
market.

If you have been following us for a while, you know I am
not a big fan of fundamental indicators, and I don't spend
any time reading the economic tea leaves. But one thing
that I can't dismiss are the current PE ratios - they are
still astronomically high.

Now the PE ratio is not any type of timing tool, but the
current level of PE ratios is not the type of reading that
bear market bottoms are made of. In fact the PE ratio for
the SP500 is closer to what you would expect at the end of
a bull market when optimism is sky high.

Bottom line, our models are still on the sidelines in the
safety of money markets. Remember, cash is a position...
don't get impatient. When the market does eventually find
a bottom, those who have cash waiting on the sidelines
will be the ones who reap a fantastic harvest.

Keeping our readers on the sidelines when the market is
going down, and in the market when it is going up is what
this publication is all about. But to really take maximum
advantage, you need to upgrade to our Walker MarketEdge -you
will get all our extra issues, PLUS our Mutual Fund picks,
PLUS immediate Flash Updates whenever there are changes in
our models. You can get more details at this web page:


> > > https://www.lowrisk.com/wme-secure.htm < < <



Good Luck,
Jeff

Copyright (c) 2003 by Jeff Walker, Bayfield, CO. This
newsletter may be forwarded, as long as you do so in its
entirety.

Disclaimer:
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past
performance does not guarantee future performance. The
foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.