Empresas do Estado cortam mais de 5 mil milhões à dívida

[Pata-Hari]

Our Signal Strength is now at 3. Our model is now completely
out of the stock market.


// -- MODEL UPDATE -- //

LowRisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 3 (on a
scale of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)

***
Graduated Strategy - 100% money markets as of 02/06/2003
Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98
SuperBull - 100% money markets as of 02/14/03

Monday marked the three year anniversary of the all time
high on the Nasdaq composite. This spurred me to update the
Nasdaq crash charts on our web site. If you haven't seen
these charts yet, they are pretty compelling, they compare
the current bear market to the 1929 Crash. There is also a
chart comparing the current Nasdaq bear market to previous
Nasdaq bear markets. Please note that the charts do NOT
include Thursday's large rally. You can see the charts at:

http://lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm


Here we are, years after I first posted that chart, and it
is still very interesting.

---

This past Monday, in an update I published to our Walker
MarketEdge readers, I wrote:

"we expect one of two things in the next couple of
days... a very strong bounce (i.e., another one of
those huge one or two day bounces that we have
seen over and over again in this bear market), or
some type of a meltdown or crash.

Since large oversold bounces are a *LOT* more
common than crashes, I think the odds are a lot
better that we see a big rally very soon. However,
from a bigger picture perspective one or two days
of rally - no matter how impressive - will not get
us excited about the market."


Well, we got that huge bounce on Thursday.

And no, it hasn't changed my perspective at all.

One interesting thing... remember a couple of weeks ago when
I mentioned the current psychology in the market? How we
haven't seen any panic selling in this bear market, only
panic buying?

Well, in one sense a 270 point DJIA rally day illustrates
that point. For example, we have seen a tremendous amount of
weakness in the market lately - but when was the last time
there was a 270 point down day?

Don't get me wrong... we have had some very big down days.
However, these monster up days are getting to be something
of a pattern.

So in this sense, the Thursday rally was not very
impressive... it was just more of the same.

HOWEVER, there was one thing about the Thursday rally that
looked impressive... and that was the tone of the trading on
the micro short term. The buying was extremely steady and
orderly pretty much all day long. The market just kept
grinding higher and higher all day long. This wasn't a case
of all the gains coming in the first or the last 60 minutes
of the day. The buying was steady - almost all day long and
right into the closing bell.

This isn't to say that I am a bull by any means, but it
looks POSSIBLE that this might be more than a one or two day
rally. *IF* the market can follow through with another rally
day on Friday, then we probably have some type of a bottom
in place. At this point, it would be way premature to
speculate on what type of bottom that would be... but this
looks like the bulls best chance in quite a while.

Up above I mentioned the Walker MarketEdge. That is the
upgraded version of this newsletter. If you upgrade you will
get more frequent updates, plus our mutual fund picks, plus
FLASH UPDATES whenever our models change positions. For more
information on upgrading to the MarketEdge, go to:


> > > https://www.lowrisk.com/wme-secure.htm < < <




Good Luck,
Jeff
"

Deixo a publicidade, afinal de contas se lhe post-o os conteúdos, o minimo é deixar a pub, né?

Mas gostei e achei curiosa a análise dele ao rally de ontem....

Ai que me vou estrepar nos curtos, argh....