Venda do Novo Banco pode representar 8% do M&A na banca europeia este ano

[Pata-Hari]

(deixei de fora o "crap" promocional, lol). Está muitio engraçada e muito bear...

Our Signal Strength is now at 3. Our model is now completely
out of the stock market.

I have included a market commentary below where I take a
look at the big picture by focusing on the very short term
picture.

// -- MODEL UPDATE -- //

LowRisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 3 (on a
scale of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)

***
Graduated Strategy - 100% money markets as of 02/06/2003
Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98
SuperBull - 100% money markets as of 02/14/03

**********


As you undoubtedly know, the stock market continues to grind
lower. The October lows are clearly in play here... and it
now looks like it is just a matter of time until we retest
those lows.

This is a dreary market with lots of gloom and doom, but
there isn't any panic yet. And this market is not going to
bottom until we see some panicked "let me out" type of
selling.

As many of you know, I spend a lot of time sitting in front
of my computer screen watching the tick by tick trading
action each day. This isn't something I would suggest for
the average investor, but it does give you some insights...

Back in the glory days of the bull market, the prices would
grind higher day after day. When the market made new highs,
it would be just one or two ticks at a time... then the
market would pull back a few points, and then it would
bounce back up to make a new high. This would often go on
all day long.

Then, every few months we would get a bout of serious
selling... the selling usually lasted about three days and
ended with some panicky selling. There are ways to measure
that panic, and it was also something you could feel as you
watched the prices flash across the screen. After the panic,
the bulls would come back into the market, and the market
would blast back higher for a day or two before settling
into another steady grind higher.

That was then... back in the bull market days. Things are
very different now. In fact, the trading action in this bear
market is pretty much a mirror image of what we saw in the
bull market . The conditions are completely reversed.

I can just hear you know... big revelation, eh?

But hear me out... I don't just mean that there is more
selling than buying - I mean that the very character of the
trading action has changed.

For the last three years the selling has been a steady grind
lower. Methodical, workman-like days where the market just
keeps pushing lower. When the market makes new lows, it is
usually one or two ticks at a time. The SP500 isn't dropping
three or four points in the space of a few seconds like it
did in those occasional sell-offs during the bull market.
Instead, it is just a steady drip, drip, drip lower - like a
leaky faucet.

And now, in the bear market, the rallies are a different
character as well. When the market does start to rally, it
blasts off in a breathless rush higher. In other words, a
*buying* panic. Thursday was a perfect example... after
grinding lower all day, when the market finally turned
higher the Dow shot up nearly 150 points in sixty minutes.

So in short, we used to have steady, grind 'em out rallies
followed by short selling panics. Now we have steady grinds
lower with occasional buying panics.

As long as this pattern persists, we know the proper
psychology is not yet in place for a real bottom. We might
still get trading bottoms that will provide substantial
rallies... but *THE* bottom will not come as long as we
continue to see buying panics every time there is a hint of
a bottom.

Now I now this isn't the most uplifting newsletter I have
ever published. But wouldn't you rather hear the truth
instead of the market cheerleading you get from so many
other sources?

Those cheerleaders had all kinds of reasons the market would
go up in 2000. Then they had a whole different set of
reasons why 2001 would be great. And then the figured out
more fantastic reasons why 2002 would be a turnaround year.