Rendimento das famílias trava a fundo no início do ano

[Ulisses Pereira]

Claro que sim. Aliás, aqui no fórum dizem-se muitas coisas acertadas e muitas coisas erradas. O tempo geralmente encarrega-se de mostrar quem costuma dizer mais coisas acertadas do que erradas. É assim a lei dos fóruns. É assim a lei da vida.

Agora que há quem aqui faça excelentes análises, disso não tenho dúvidas. É, neste momento, a maior e melhor fonte de análises sobre os mercados em Portugal. Quem gosta de bolsa e não utiliza a Internet, limitando as suas leituras às revistas e jornais, nem sabe o quão longe está do centro do turbilhão...

Um abraço,
Ulisses

[Waterman (Nick)]

e esclarecedor...

Mas Ulisses...ouvimos isso aqui neste Fórum há bastante tempo, de muitos(ilustres) intervenientes diferentes. Cada um com as suas qualidades retóricas, é um facto, mas efusivamente a apontar nesse sentido, ou não? (:oops: será que é um registado)



Um abraço!...

P.S.: Gostei bastante do artigo, realmente.

[Ulisses Pereira]

"Ground Control to Major Trend"

By John Roque
Special to RealMoney.com
02/20/2003 01:03 PM EST


Let's see, we could talk about "Major Tom," Major Nelson and Major Healey from I Dream of Jeannie, the major leagues, college football's Major Applewhite and Major Ogilvy, traffic on the Major Deegan, episodes of Major Dad or the Major Trend. I'll focus on the Major Trend in this article, but I'd be willing to hear about your favorite I Dream of Jeannie episode, too.
The market's "Major Trend" remains bearish, but I'm pretty sure that most people aren't paying attention to that. Nearly everyone I spoke to in the past four days is paying more attention to the "Minor Trend." "How far do you think the move can go?" "Which stocks might bounce here?" "Where is resistance on the S&P?" "How much does the market rally if Saddam goes quietly?"

Like you, I want to get these questions -- and any minor trend -- right. And I constantly put into practice the sage advice I once heard: Get the minor trends right, and you'll have the major trend figured out. The trouble with the potential minor trend now is whether it even exists.


Short-Term Fixation
I realize why nearly everyone I spoke to in the past four days is paying very close attention to even the shortest-term of movements: rough performance for the last few years. No one wants to get off on the wrong foot in early '03. A "war-induced rally" with too much cash on the sidelines would be more painful than further price deterioration, and most believe everyone else is bearish, thereby contributing to the "I'd better get ready for a rally" idea.

So do I believe the action that began with last Thursday's intraday reversal can continue, or do I say "Fuhgeddaboudit?" (Furthermore, how much weight do I give to the program buying that comes in around 2 p.m. or the jamming of the Nasdaq futures from 6 a.m. to 9:15 a.m.?)


Maybe I'm off, but it's hard to embrace a bounce (following mildly oversold readings) that has, in the space of a few days, taken a lot of stocks back into resistance and key downward-sloping moving averages. For examples, see Johnson & Johnson, American Standard and Wal-Mart.

I don't have any insight into the Iraq situation, and I understand the ramifications of a possible rockets'-red-glare rally. However, most people seem to be preparing for such an event. That tells me: (1) an Iraq-induced rally won't be easily exploited on the long side and will ultimately be a selling opportunity, or (2) perhaps more importantly, it might not even happen.


Take the Quiz
In order to help me stick with the Major Trend, I keep asking myself the following questions:


Has there been any change in the "lower highs and lower lows" pattern of the S&P 500? Nope. Except for the early November '02 level, every other "high" has been lower than the prior high. Lower lows are still in force, too.


Are the major indices still below downward-sloping 50- and 200-day moving averages? Yup.


Is the CBOE Volatility Index near the upper part of its range for the past few years? Nope. The VIX is still far below the top of its range and hasn't even been above 40 on a closing basis since mid-October. In short, the VIX looks like it's consolidating in a bull flag, while above upward-sloping 50- and 200-day moving averages. That's bullish for it.


Has the 30-year T-bond topped? Nope. Shoot, it hasn't even corrected sharply enough to get near its upward-sloping 200-day moving average. In fact, the bond looks like it's going higher and its yield lower. Given the 90% negative correlation between the bond price and the S&P 500 over the last two years, this looks bad for stocks.


Is gold still strong? Yes. It's in an uptrend. It corrected to support at 340, while moving below an upward-sloping 50-day moving average and remaining above an upward-sloping 200-day moving average. In short, it did what it should've done to create a buying opportunity.


Are oil and natural gas still strong? Yeah. The stocks don't care, but the commodities are strong.


Is the dollar still bearish? In spades.


Are breakouts working? No. The number of net new highs on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq is negative.


If things are improving economically (as I hear) and the market is bottoming (as some believe, but not me), why does Manpower (MAN:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) act so poorly? I can't really say, but this stock looks like it has risk to $25 next. If Manpower provides any insight into the economy, then it isn't an encouraging sign.


Has TV programming as a whole jumped the shark? A thousand times yes, with such shows as Joe Millionaire and The Bachelorette. Thank goodness for college hoops and near-constant showings of Grease and The Godfather.


Are the Knicks going to trade Latrell Sprewell? Well, they haven't won anything with him. The Knicks should get what they can for him. If they can trade Walt Frazier, they can trade Sprewell. He's no Walt Frazier. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

Eu acho que nem com Latrell Sprewell, nem sem ele.... nem aos playoffs chegam....

Um abraço,
Ulisses