Sobre o futuro do petróleo
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Sobre o futuro do petróleo
Quando o choque petrolífero dos anos 70 aconteceu, falava-se imenso sobre as energias alternativas, sendo que muitos apregoavam que o ouro negro tinha os dias contados (nessa altura havia muito boa gente que especulava com o abandono dos combustíveis derivados do petróleo num espaço temporal de cerca de 20 anos.
Foi na altura da construção da refinaria de Sines...que ainda ía a meio, e já era considerada um "elefante branco"., mesmo por parte do lider do consórcio, uma empresa francesa (Technip-Procofrance)
Passaram quase 30 anos. E afinal....
Deixo-vos umas declarações do CEO da ExxonMobil.
É que afinal , as opiniões dos anos 70, estavam totalmente erradas.
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Amid rising oil prices and war looming in the Middle East, ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM ) Chairman and CEO Lee R. Raymond took the stage on Feb. 11 as one of the keynote speakers at CERAWeek 2003, a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Houston. Outspoken as ever, Raymond -- head of the world's largest publicly traded oil company -- answered questions from the audience after his speech. Here are edited excerpts from the discussion:
Q: As we look at the impact of continuing economic growth on energy demand, what are some of the key trends that are emerging for the industry?
A: First, it's abundantly clear that economic growth will remain the primary driver of energy demand. The global economy has grown at an average [annual] rate of about 3% since 1970. We expect growth to continue at that pace over the next two decades, with reduced rates of population growth offset by increases in per capita productivity.
We expect energy-demand growth to be at a somewhat lower rate, reflecting significant but yet-to-be-achieved advances in energy technology and efficiency. We project that the world's demand for energy will reach close to 290 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2020 -- or about 40% more than today.
Q: Is the industry prepared to meet that demand?
A: About half the oil and gas volume needed to meet demand 10 years from now is not in production today. The industry may need to add some 80 million oil-equivalent barrels per day over the next decade to meet projected demand -- an amount equivalent to two-thirds of today's production levels. With such truly staggering investments, we will need to continue to push [forward on] the technology front, with the help of the best scientists and engineers we can muster.
Q: What role will alternative fuels play in helping to meet that demand?
A: We expect conventional fuels -- oil and gas -- will remain the dominant energy source, at least through mid-century. We project wind and solar energy will continue to grow rapidly, but only due to government policies and incentives, not market economics.
To put this in perspective: Solar power can cost somewhere between $100 to $250 per barrel of oil-equivalent. Starting from such a low base today, wind and solar are unlikely to exceed a 1% share of the world's energy needs by 2020, even with double-digit growth rates. Oil and gas represent 60% of energy supplies today.
Q: What role could hydrogen play in helping to meet energy needs?
A: Hydrogen has been getting more attention recently. On the positive side, hydrogen is abundant, and once delivered to the vehicle, can be used emissions-free. However, it doesn't exist independently of other elements, meaning that significant energy and costs are required to liberate it for use in fuel-cell vehicles.
When considering any fuel, the entire system of production, distribution, and consumption must be analyzed to assess overall efficiency and emissions -- a well-to-wheels analysis.... Significant breakthroughs will be required to lower the cost of hydrogen for it to be competitive against the ever-improving performance of the most advanced internal-combustion engine and hybrid technologies. In addition, anyone in our industry must recognize and should alert everyone to safety issues around hydrogen.
Q: What role will reserves play in helping to meet that demand?
A: While there are sufficient reserves to meet world demand through at least the middle of this century, meeting the growing energy demand will require timely and successful resource development. Indigenous oil and gas supplies within mature market areas, such as the U.S. and the North Sea, will struggle to keep pace with demand. As supplies from local production decline, the industry must bring on a substantial number of new and remote developments to fill the gap.
Q: Which areas are likely to help fill that gap?
A: We foresee increased volumes coming from West Africa, Russia, the Caspian, and the Middle East. Given the variation in demand growth rates and shifting supply sources, we also see increasing interdependency between importing and exporting countries. For example, net oil imports into the U.S. and Europe may grow by about 3 million barrels per day over the next couple of decades. While those increases are significant, they are dwarfed by an expected increase in Asia's net imports of about 15 million barrels per day.
The center of gravity for our industry is inexorably moving to the Far East. That will put the Middle East in an even more important and dominant position. It's a very, very serious long-term problem.... Twenty years from now, the Far East will consume more than the U.S. and Europe combined.
Foi na altura da construção da refinaria de Sines...que ainda ía a meio, e já era considerada um "elefante branco"., mesmo por parte do lider do consórcio, uma empresa francesa (Technip-Procofrance)
Passaram quase 30 anos. E afinal....
Deixo-vos umas declarações do CEO da ExxonMobil.
É que afinal , as opiniões dos anos 70, estavam totalmente erradas.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amid rising oil prices and war looming in the Middle East, ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM ) Chairman and CEO Lee R. Raymond took the stage on Feb. 11 as one of the keynote speakers at CERAWeek 2003, a Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference in Houston. Outspoken as ever, Raymond -- head of the world's largest publicly traded oil company -- answered questions from the audience after his speech. Here are edited excerpts from the discussion:
Q: As we look at the impact of continuing economic growth on energy demand, what are some of the key trends that are emerging for the industry?
A: First, it's abundantly clear that economic growth will remain the primary driver of energy demand. The global economy has grown at an average [annual] rate of about 3% since 1970. We expect growth to continue at that pace over the next two decades, with reduced rates of population growth offset by increases in per capita productivity.
We expect energy-demand growth to be at a somewhat lower rate, reflecting significant but yet-to-be-achieved advances in energy technology and efficiency. We project that the world's demand for energy will reach close to 290 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2020 -- or about 40% more than today.
Q: Is the industry prepared to meet that demand?
A: About half the oil and gas volume needed to meet demand 10 years from now is not in production today. The industry may need to add some 80 million oil-equivalent barrels per day over the next decade to meet projected demand -- an amount equivalent to two-thirds of today's production levels. With such truly staggering investments, we will need to continue to push [forward on] the technology front, with the help of the best scientists and engineers we can muster.
Q: What role will alternative fuels play in helping to meet that demand?
A: We expect conventional fuels -- oil and gas -- will remain the dominant energy source, at least through mid-century. We project wind and solar energy will continue to grow rapidly, but only due to government policies and incentives, not market economics.
To put this in perspective: Solar power can cost somewhere between $100 to $250 per barrel of oil-equivalent. Starting from such a low base today, wind and solar are unlikely to exceed a 1% share of the world's energy needs by 2020, even with double-digit growth rates. Oil and gas represent 60% of energy supplies today.
Q: What role could hydrogen play in helping to meet energy needs?
A: Hydrogen has been getting more attention recently. On the positive side, hydrogen is abundant, and once delivered to the vehicle, can be used emissions-free. However, it doesn't exist independently of other elements, meaning that significant energy and costs are required to liberate it for use in fuel-cell vehicles.
When considering any fuel, the entire system of production, distribution, and consumption must be analyzed to assess overall efficiency and emissions -- a well-to-wheels analysis.... Significant breakthroughs will be required to lower the cost of hydrogen for it to be competitive against the ever-improving performance of the most advanced internal-combustion engine and hybrid technologies. In addition, anyone in our industry must recognize and should alert everyone to safety issues around hydrogen.
Q: What role will reserves play in helping to meet that demand?
A: While there are sufficient reserves to meet world demand through at least the middle of this century, meeting the growing energy demand will require timely and successful resource development. Indigenous oil and gas supplies within mature market areas, such as the U.S. and the North Sea, will struggle to keep pace with demand. As supplies from local production decline, the industry must bring on a substantial number of new and remote developments to fill the gap.
Q: Which areas are likely to help fill that gap?
A: We foresee increased volumes coming from West Africa, Russia, the Caspian, and the Middle East. Given the variation in demand growth rates and shifting supply sources, we also see increasing interdependency between importing and exporting countries. For example, net oil imports into the U.S. and Europe may grow by about 3 million barrels per day over the next couple of decades. While those increases are significant, they are dwarfed by an expected increase in Asia's net imports of about 15 million barrels per day.
The center of gravity for our industry is inexorably moving to the Far East. That will put the Middle East in an even more important and dominant position. It's a very, very serious long-term problem.... Twenty years from now, the Far East will consume more than the U.S. and Europe combined.
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- Registado: 11/12/2002 2:48
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