Ao minuto: Trump critica violações do cessar-fogo e aponta especialmente a Israel

[Camisa Roxa]

We've gotten plenty of questions over the last few days about what's going to happen
next for the market, but it seems that the consensus question is "Aren't we oversold
and ready to reverse higher?" Obviously there's no easy answer to that. Technically,
yes, we are oversold and statistically should move higher soon. However, you can't
deny that we're still headed down. So what's the deal?

Our current situation is interesting to say the least. The trend is down, but we're
technically oversold. Sentiment is getting extremely bearish, which only happens at
market bottoms though. We're most likely facing a military conflict in the near
future, but the Gulf war of 1991 actually sparked a rally. That's a lot to work
through, which we will over the next few days. Today, though, I want to make sure
that we're all able to avoid being faked out by a couple of bullish days. As usual,
the charts provide the clues we need.

Below we've plotted the S&P 100 daily chart, and a 10 day exponential moving average
(on blue) with a 20 day exponential moving average (in red). Also plotted (in dark
blue) are the two support and resistance lines, of which we seem to have a hard time
breaking out. The bottom line is simple: both the 10 day and 20 day exponential
moving averages (EMAs) as well as the upper resistance line need to be pierced before
we can actually call anything a reversal.

On the chart you can see that the two trend lines are actually a continuation of
December's bearish lines. You can also see that there's a little room between those
lines in which the S&P 100 can move around in and still not really mean much. This is
significantly important over the next few days. The index could move 11 points higher
today, and it still wouldn't have "broken-out" of this downtrend. That resistance
line is set at 433.

S&P 100 - DAILY

We can also see that our 10 and 20 day EMAs have been tough to cross. But when the
index does cross them, it recently has accelerated the market in that same direction,
at least for the short term. Throughout December you can see how the index approached
both of the EMA lines only to bounce back down off of them. Finally on the first
trading day in January, we did cross the 10 and 20 day line and followed through
higher. We also crossed back under those lines in the middle of January, and followed
through to the downside. The 10 day line is at 429, while the 20 day line is at 437.
That 20 day line is a significant level: see the January 23rd TrendWatch for details.

The point is, don't get suckered by a few good days. We're at the low end of the
trading range, and when you're this low, any move higher seems like a big one.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Nasdaq Composite 1275 1315
S&P 500 820 850
Dow Industrials 7820 8020