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[Camisa Roxa]

Nasdaq Commentary

On Wednesday we had mentioned that the Nasdaq was being held up by pretty strong
support at the 1300 level, only to wind up later in the week falling well below that.
As the trend moves lower, the 1200-1250 target becomes more and more likely.

The new line in the sand has been drawn at the 1275 level, so any lows and/or closes
below that will only strengthen our bearish bias. The composite found support near
that level Friday (with a low of 1278.54), and 1275 also served as support last year
during the first test of the October/November rally. It?s not what one would consider
an optimal support line, but it?s the only one we?ve got at this point.

The real problem here is the resistance figures, of which we have plenty. The
critical short-term figure we need to break to switch our bias to neutral is 1320.
This is the line that had served as support for most of last week. But the horizontal
resistance at 1320 isn?t as significant as the 10 day moving average, which is now
also around 1320. We haven?t been able to break above that line since this downtrend
started, despite poking at it several times with intra-day highs.

If we do happen to make it that far, we?ll likely encounter resistance again at 1350.
As we mentioned Wednesday, getting above 1350 will be the final move to get us back
to a neutral opinion.

We?ve lowered the bar for bullishness now to 1440, which is the 200 day line. This
may even be lower by the time it becomes an issue, but that?s the least of our
concerns at this point.

The pitfall to our bearish opinion is the potential for a bargain-buying rally.
Today?s particular chart pattern with an open near the high and a close near the low
does have bullish implications, as that is how many reversal first start. If we get a
mirror image of that bar on Monday (with an open near the low and a close near the
high), that may be a sign of the reversal. Even so, the current trend is still
bearish.

Daily Chart of the Nasdaq Composite (COMPX)

S&P 100 (OEX) Commentary

Like the Nasdaq, what had been support for the OEX at 425 through the middle of last
week became resistance over the last two days. Not only were we unable to move back
above that, we continued to make new term lows and new low closings, to wind the week
up at 418.79.

Unlike the Nasdaq, though, we don?t really have a clear likely bottom. If the
head-and-shoulders pattern does hold true, then we may sink as low as 405 before
buyers step in and stop the bleeding. So we?ll set our strong support line around
400.

As far as resistance, 425 and 435 are the short- term barriers, and it?s no surprise
that the 10 day average line is right in the middle at 430. The 10 day line has been
pushing the trading ranges lower, as the index can?t seem to even get an intra-day
high above it. The key level we need to get above to move to a neutral opinion is
440.

Beyond that, 480 is still serving as our final resistance level. We?ll want to see a
few consecutive closes above that before becoming fully bullish. But we have a while
before we cross that bridge.

Weekly Chart of the S&P 100 (OEX)

The Bottom Line
Just when it seemed things couldn?t get any worse, they got worse. Both the OTC and
the OEX continue to bounce back and forth within a down-trending trading range, and
the longer they do it, the stronger that trend is. We may get to as low as 400 for
the OEX and 1200 on the Nasdaq before the bear trend is really tested. Our bearish
bias is only removed at stops of 440 and 1350, respectively. It is worth mentioning
that today?s chart patterns are the first half of what a reversal often looks like
(with an open near the high and a close near the low, and a very wide trading range).
If we get the opposite pattern on Monday, it will certainly merit attention. But
don?t get excited just yet.