Noticias de fim-de-semana, 8 e 9 de Fev 2003
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New Lows May Be Close, Some Investors Say: U.S. Stocks Outlo
New Lows May Be Close, Some Investors Say: U.S. Stocks Outlook
By Philip Boroff
New York, Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Since mid-January, both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone about two-thirds of the way toward six-year lows. They may get closer in the coming week.
The threat posed by a second U.S.-led war against Iraq sent stocks lower Friday even though the country's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. Some investors said the potential for war may crowd out further evidence of a growing economy or signs of higher corporate profits.
``We're going down,'' said Brian Pears, a Victory Capital Management Inc. managing director who oversees the $62 billion asset manager's equity trading desk. ``Nothing gets fixed in the market until the situation with Iraq gets fixed.''
Stocks dropped for the fourth consecutive week, the third decline of that length in the past 12 months. El Paso Corp. led the latest drop in the S&P 500. The largest U.S. owner of natural- gas pipelines, which cut its dividend by more than four-fifths and said it would sell more assets to pay off debt, sank 42 percent. AT&T Corp. was the Dow's worst performer, off 34 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow have both fallen 11 percent from this year's highs, set Jan. 14. The S&P 500 would have to lose another 6 percent to reach its Oct. 9 close of 776, the lowest since April 28, 1996. The Dow would have to fall 7 percent to match its low of 7286. Both indexes are off 6 percent for the year.
Selling, Not Holding
Even those who predict a quick U.S. victory in an Iraqi war, and a resulting stock-market rally, recommend investors restrain their expectations.
``There is no such thing anymore as buy and hold,'' said Federated Investors Inc. Vice Chairman Thomas Madden, who helps oversee $195 billion and foresees a bear market for another decade or longer. Madden suggests Federated's money managers sell shares more quickly than before to lock in gains.
On Friday, stocks dropped for a fourth day after the Labor Department reported that the jobless rate fell to 5.7 percent in January from an eight-year high. Companies added 143,000 jobs, the most in more than two years. The increase followed a report by the Institute for Supply Management that showed manufacturing expanded for a third month.
Share prices declined even as profit reports bolstered the view that companies are emerging from a slump. Earnings increased 17.4 percent among the 385 companies in the S&P 500 that published results, according to Jeffrey Warantz, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney. Almost three-quarters met or surpassed analyst forecasts, up from 65 percent 12 months earlier.
Can't Forget Iraq
``The market's going to retest our October lows'' and may keep falling, said Richard Campagna, a money manager with Shaker Investments in Cleveland, which oversees about $1 billion. ``The economy is moving forward slowly and in a staggered fashion.''
Next week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan appears before the House and Senate to deliver the central bank's twice- yearly report on monetary policy and the economic outlook. The government will also release retail-sales figures for January.
If this week's performance is any guide, stocks may not get much of a lift no matter what the reports suggest, some investors and traders said.
``The stock market should be up sharply,'' Victory's Pears said. ``But you can't take Iraq out of the picture.''
On Wednesday, a rally sparked by Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech at the United Nations on the case for war against Iraq fizzled later in the day. Speculation persisted that a war won't happen soon, disrupting economic growth.
Yielding Too Little
Some investors argued that the economy is overwhelmed by debt. Although the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. consumer borrowing in December had its greatest decline in more than a decade, debt totaled $1.7 trillion, excluding mortgages.
Sears, Roebuck & Co. said Thursday that it noticed an increase in delinquencies and had to set aside more money to account for consumers who fail to pay bills. Shares of Sears, the largest U.S. department-store chain, dropped 12 percent this week.
Federated's Madden, while saying he expects stocks to rally after a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, compares the current market to that of the 1970s. Between 1969 and 1981, the Dow declined to 875 from 943.
Dividends are too low as a percentage of the S&P 500's value to suggest that stocks have hit bottom, in his view. The dividend yield is 1.8 percent, less than half of the 4.3 percent average for 13 bear markets since World War II, according to a study published Jan. 31 by International Strategy & Investment.
By Philip Boroff
New York, Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Since mid-January, both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average have gone about two-thirds of the way toward six-year lows. They may get closer in the coming week.
The threat posed by a second U.S.-led war against Iraq sent stocks lower Friday even though the country's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. Some investors said the potential for war may crowd out further evidence of a growing economy or signs of higher corporate profits.
``We're going down,'' said Brian Pears, a Victory Capital Management Inc. managing director who oversees the $62 billion asset manager's equity trading desk. ``Nothing gets fixed in the market until the situation with Iraq gets fixed.''
Stocks dropped for the fourth consecutive week, the third decline of that length in the past 12 months. El Paso Corp. led the latest drop in the S&P 500. The largest U.S. owner of natural- gas pipelines, which cut its dividend by more than four-fifths and said it would sell more assets to pay off debt, sank 42 percent. AT&T Corp. was the Dow's worst performer, off 34 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow have both fallen 11 percent from this year's highs, set Jan. 14. The S&P 500 would have to lose another 6 percent to reach its Oct. 9 close of 776, the lowest since April 28, 1996. The Dow would have to fall 7 percent to match its low of 7286. Both indexes are off 6 percent for the year.
Selling, Not Holding
Even those who predict a quick U.S. victory in an Iraqi war, and a resulting stock-market rally, recommend investors restrain their expectations.
``There is no such thing anymore as buy and hold,'' said Federated Investors Inc. Vice Chairman Thomas Madden, who helps oversee $195 billion and foresees a bear market for another decade or longer. Madden suggests Federated's money managers sell shares more quickly than before to lock in gains.
On Friday, stocks dropped for a fourth day after the Labor Department reported that the jobless rate fell to 5.7 percent in January from an eight-year high. Companies added 143,000 jobs, the most in more than two years. The increase followed a report by the Institute for Supply Management that showed manufacturing expanded for a third month.
Share prices declined even as profit reports bolstered the view that companies are emerging from a slump. Earnings increased 17.4 percent among the 385 companies in the S&P 500 that published results, according to Jeffrey Warantz, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney. Almost three-quarters met or surpassed analyst forecasts, up from 65 percent 12 months earlier.
Can't Forget Iraq
``The market's going to retest our October lows'' and may keep falling, said Richard Campagna, a money manager with Shaker Investments in Cleveland, which oversees about $1 billion. ``The economy is moving forward slowly and in a staggered fashion.''
Next week, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan appears before the House and Senate to deliver the central bank's twice- yearly report on monetary policy and the economic outlook. The government will also release retail-sales figures for January.
If this week's performance is any guide, stocks may not get much of a lift no matter what the reports suggest, some investors and traders said.
``The stock market should be up sharply,'' Victory's Pears said. ``But you can't take Iraq out of the picture.''
On Wednesday, a rally sparked by Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech at the United Nations on the case for war against Iraq fizzled later in the day. Speculation persisted that a war won't happen soon, disrupting economic growth.
Yielding Too Little
Some investors argued that the economy is overwhelmed by debt. Although the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. consumer borrowing in December had its greatest decline in more than a decade, debt totaled $1.7 trillion, excluding mortgages.
Sears, Roebuck & Co. said Thursday that it noticed an increase in delinquencies and had to set aside more money to account for consumers who fail to pay bills. Shares of Sears, the largest U.S. department-store chain, dropped 12 percent this week.
Federated's Madden, while saying he expects stocks to rally after a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, compares the current market to that of the 1970s. Between 1969 and 1981, the Dow declined to 875 from 943.
Dividends are too low as a percentage of the S&P 500's value to suggest that stocks have hit bottom, in his view. The dividend yield is 1.8 percent, less than half of the 4.3 percent average for 13 bear markets since World War II, according to a study published Jan. 31 by International Strategy & Investment.
- Mensagens: 23939
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
- Localização: 4
Key events in the week ahead
Key events in the week ahead
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gives his semi-annual testimony on the state of the economy to the Senate Tuesday.
Thursday morning January retail sales are released. Economists forecast a slippage of 0.3 percent compared with a December gain of 1.2 percent. Ignore autos (sales of which have been volatile lately) and the forecast is for a 0.5 percent rise.
Industrial production and capacity utilization figures for January are due Friday. Economists expect a gain of 0.2 percent versus December's 0.2 percent decline. Capacity utilization is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 75.5 percent.
The University of Michigan releases its initial take on consumer sentiment for February on Friday. Economists will be looking to see if sentiment has eroded as the war rhetoric has heated up.
U.N. weapons inspectors report to the Security Council Friday.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan gives his semi-annual testimony on the state of the economy to the Senate Tuesday.
Thursday morning January retail sales are released. Economists forecast a slippage of 0.3 percent compared with a December gain of 1.2 percent. Ignore autos (sales of which have been volatile lately) and the forecast is for a 0.5 percent rise.
Industrial production and capacity utilization figures for January are due Friday. Economists expect a gain of 0.2 percent versus December's 0.2 percent decline. Capacity utilization is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 75.5 percent.
The University of Michigan releases its initial take on consumer sentiment for February on Friday. Economists will be looking to see if sentiment has eroded as the war rhetoric has heated up.
U.N. weapons inspectors report to the Security Council Friday.
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Unión Fenosa acelera programa de redução da dívida
Unión Fenosa acelera programa de redução da dívida
7-2-2003 20:8
A Unión Fenosa decidiu acelerar o programa de redução da dívida, que estimava fixar abaixo dos 6.000 milhões de euros no prazo de cinco anos, segundo revelou o presidente da empresa em entrevista ao Financial Times.
Antonio Basagoiti estima que a dívida da terceira maior eléctrica espanhola se situe na casa dos 4.000 milhões de euros em 2007, face aos actuais 7.600 milhões de euros.
Segundo o Financial Times, o novo plano estratégico, que será apresentado nas próximas semanas, inclui a venda de 5,0% do capital da Somaen-Dos, que controla 33,2% da petrolífera Cepsa.
A Unión Fenosa ganhou 2,78% para 12,20 euros, em Madrid
7-2-2003 20:8
A Unión Fenosa decidiu acelerar o programa de redução da dívida, que estimava fixar abaixo dos 6.000 milhões de euros no prazo de cinco anos, segundo revelou o presidente da empresa em entrevista ao Financial Times.
Antonio Basagoiti estima que a dívida da terceira maior eléctrica espanhola se situe na casa dos 4.000 milhões de euros em 2007, face aos actuais 7.600 milhões de euros.
Segundo o Financial Times, o novo plano estratégico, que será apresentado nas próximas semanas, inclui a venda de 5,0% do capital da Somaen-Dos, que controla 33,2% da petrolífera Cepsa.
A Unión Fenosa ganhou 2,78% para 12,20 euros, em Madrid
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- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
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PT tem liquidez suficiente para cobrir lacuna do fundo de pe
PT tem liquidez suficiente para cobrir lacuna do fundo de pensões
7-2-2003 19:59
Fonte oficial da Portugal Telecom (PT) referiu, à agência Reuters, que tem liquidez suficiente para cobrir a lacuna de 1,1 mil milhões de euros existente no fundo de pensões.
O facto de a empresa ter sido colocada em “CreditWatch” pela Standard & Poor's não é preocupante, afirma a mesma fonte, uma vez que a PT dispõe de 1,7 mil milhões de euros em cash para cobrir o gap. E adiciona que, mesmo em caso de corte do rating, a taxa da dívida não sobe, uma vez que 80% é de taxa fixa. E conclui que “o balanço do grupo PT nunca esteve melhor” e que só não fecha essa obrigações por causa de incentivos fiscais.
A PT subiu 0,15% para 6,57 euros
7-2-2003 19:59
Fonte oficial da Portugal Telecom (PT) referiu, à agência Reuters, que tem liquidez suficiente para cobrir a lacuna de 1,1 mil milhões de euros existente no fundo de pensões.
O facto de a empresa ter sido colocada em “CreditWatch” pela Standard & Poor's não é preocupante, afirma a mesma fonte, uma vez que a PT dispõe de 1,7 mil milhões de euros em cash para cobrir o gap. E adiciona que, mesmo em caso de corte do rating, a taxa da dívida não sobe, uma vez que 80% é de taxa fixa. E conclui que “o balanço do grupo PT nunca esteve melhor” e que só não fecha essa obrigações por causa de incentivos fiscais.
A PT subiu 0,15% para 6,57 euros
- Mensagens: 23939
- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
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Acções EUA caem com iminência de conflito no Iraque; Dow cai
Acções EUA caem com iminência de conflito no Iraque; Dow cai 0,82%
As acções americanas caíram, com o anúncio da queda no desemprego a não ser suficiente para aliviar os receios dos investidores quanto à possibilidade de abrandamento económico motivado por uma guerra no Iraque. O Nasdaq cedeu 1,48% e o Dow caiu 0,82%.
O índice industrial [INDU] fechou nos 7.864,23 pontos, enquanto o Nasdaq [CCMP] terminou nos 1.282,47 pontos.
A Pfizer e a Microsoft lideraram as perdas, ao caírem 1,61% e 1,77% cada uma. O Advogado Geral John Ashcroft afirmou hoje que a possibilidade de ataques terroristas aos EUA aumentou, ao elevar o indicador de ameaça terrorista para «Laranja» - alto risco - o segundo nível mais elevado de perigo.
O responsável, equivalente ao Procurador Geral da República, afirmou que a decisão foi «baseada em informação secreta recebida e analisada pela totalidade da comunidade dos serviços secretos» e que foi «corroborada por múltiplas fontes».
O anterior nível de «Amarelo» era o terceiro de uma escala de cinco cores para as ameaças ao território e vigorava desde que alguns terroristas ligados aos ataques de 11 de Setembro foram detidos no ano passado. O código «Amarelo» traduz um «elevado risco de ataque terrorista».
O Departamento do Trabalho revelou hoje que a taxa de desemprego nos Estados Unidos caiu inesperadamente para os 5,7% em Janeiro e a economia criou 143 mil novos postos de trabalho, o número mais elevado em 26 meses.
Os economistas previam que as empresas norte-americanas criassem 68 mil postos de trabalho e que a taxa de desemprego permanecesse nos 6%.
O «American Depositary Receipt» (ADR) da Portugal Telecom fechou nos 7,05 dólares (6,51 euros), enquanto em Lisboa a operadora nacional terminou nos 6,57 euros. Cada ADR representa uma acção da PT [PTC].
O ADR da Electricidade de Portugal (EDP) situou-se nos 16,42 dólares (15,16 euros), enquanto em Lisboa, as acções da eléctrica nacional fecharam nos 1,53 euros. Cada ADR representa 10 acções da EDP [EDP].
2003/02/07 21:44:00
As acções americanas caíram, com o anúncio da queda no desemprego a não ser suficiente para aliviar os receios dos investidores quanto à possibilidade de abrandamento económico motivado por uma guerra no Iraque. O Nasdaq cedeu 1,48% e o Dow caiu 0,82%.
O índice industrial [INDU] fechou nos 7.864,23 pontos, enquanto o Nasdaq [CCMP] terminou nos 1.282,47 pontos.
A Pfizer e a Microsoft lideraram as perdas, ao caírem 1,61% e 1,77% cada uma. O Advogado Geral John Ashcroft afirmou hoje que a possibilidade de ataques terroristas aos EUA aumentou, ao elevar o indicador de ameaça terrorista para «Laranja» - alto risco - o segundo nível mais elevado de perigo.
O responsável, equivalente ao Procurador Geral da República, afirmou que a decisão foi «baseada em informação secreta recebida e analisada pela totalidade da comunidade dos serviços secretos» e que foi «corroborada por múltiplas fontes».
O anterior nível de «Amarelo» era o terceiro de uma escala de cinco cores para as ameaças ao território e vigorava desde que alguns terroristas ligados aos ataques de 11 de Setembro foram detidos no ano passado. O código «Amarelo» traduz um «elevado risco de ataque terrorista».
O Departamento do Trabalho revelou hoje que a taxa de desemprego nos Estados Unidos caiu inesperadamente para os 5,7% em Janeiro e a economia criou 143 mil novos postos de trabalho, o número mais elevado em 26 meses.
Os economistas previam que as empresas norte-americanas criassem 68 mil postos de trabalho e que a taxa de desemprego permanecesse nos 6%.
O «American Depositary Receipt» (ADR) da Portugal Telecom fechou nos 7,05 dólares (6,51 euros), enquanto em Lisboa a operadora nacional terminou nos 6,57 euros. Cada ADR representa uma acção da PT [PTC].
O ADR da Electricidade de Portugal (EDP) situou-se nos 16,42 dólares (15,16 euros), enquanto em Lisboa, as acções da eléctrica nacional fecharam nos 1,53 euros. Cada ADR representa 10 acções da EDP [EDP].
2003/02/07 21:44:00
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- Registado: 5/11/2002 11:30
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Noticias de fim-de-semana, 8 e 9 de Fev 2003
Bom fim-de-semana a todos.
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