Ao minuto: Petróleo atenua escalada com mercados à espera de resposta do Irão

[Pata-Hari]

Bem, e para deixar a papinha já meia mastigada, deixo o parágrafo que resume a ideia e o mood do senhor e que me fica gravada deste newsletter...

Since this bear market began three years ago, we have seen
several bear market rallies. And every time the market has
retraced 50% of the gains from one of those rallies, it has
continued right on down to test and break the previous lows.
Of course, that is the very nature of bear markets - to make
lower lows.

So last October's lows should definitely be on your radar
screen. Yes, the market might very well re-test those lows.
They are at:

Dow: 7197
SP500: 768
Nasdaq composite: 1108
Nasdaq 100: 811

[Pata-Hari]

Eu gosto deste tipo, gosto das newsletters dele (rara excepção) e gosto dos argumentos, acho informativo e que ajudam a criar uma opinião. Aqui fica...

Walker Market Letter

January 30th, 2003

http://www.LowRisk.com

...............................................


Our Signal Strength is still at 7. We are still primarily
out of the stock market.

I have included a market commentary further down..



// -- MODEL UPDATE -- //

LowRisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 7 (on a
scale of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)

***

Graduated Strategy - 25% stocks, 75% money markets as of 12/10/2002
Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98
SuperBull Stategy - 100% stocks as of 12/06/00

**********


First off, I just wanted to let you know that I have just
finished updating our Nasdaq Crash charts at:

>> http://lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm <<


These charts have been often imitated, but never equaled. Of
course, when I first put these charts up more that two years
ago no one imitated them - they just laughed. The comparison
to 1929 just seemed too outlandish. Well, no one is laughing
any more.

I remember back in 2000 when I put these charts together and
projected that if the 2000 bear market lasted as long as the
1929 bear market, it wouldn't bottom until January, 2003. At
the time I wrote that, it was not a very pleasant thought -
January 2003 seemed like a long ways off.

Well, here we are - it's January 2003 and we can only HOPE
that we are at or near a market bottom. But don't hold your
breath... because this market is just not looking very healthy.

So far this year has been a case of another year, and
another ugly January.

In fact, this January is playing out a lot like January
2002. In '02 the market came out of the gate fast, with the
SP500 gaining more than 2% and the Nasdaq 100 picking up
more than 6% - all in the first three trading days of the
year.

This year started with a bang as well. In fact, the gains
were even larger than last year. The SP500 was up more than
6% in the first ten trading days of the year, while the
Nasdaq gained more than 10%.

However, those gains are now fond memories. The Nasdaq is
basically back where it started the year, while the SP500
has lost almost 4% and the Dow has given up more than 4%.

The selling in the last couple of weeks has done some
serious damage to the charts. The SP500 and the Dow have now
given up more that 50% of the gains from last October's
lows. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq composite are
right around their 50% "retracement" levels.

In other words, they have given up (or "retraced") about 50%
of their gains from the October lows to the December
highs.

Since this bear market began three years ago, we have seen
several bear market rallies. And every time the market has
retraced 50% of the gains from one of those rallies, it has
continued right on down to test and break the previous lows.
Of course, that is the very nature of bear markets - to make
lower lows.

So last October's lows should definitely be on your radar
screen. Yes, the market might very well re-test those lows.
They are at:

Dow: 7197
SP500: 768
Nasdaq composite: 1108
Nasdaq 100: 811


Of course, the market never goes anywhere in a straight
line, and it won't go down to those lows in a straight line.
There will be rallies and downdrafts along the way... enough
to trap bulls and bears alike.

One thing that you can do to protect yourself from these
gyrations is upgrade your subscription to the Walker
MarketEdge. If you upgrade to the MarketEdge, then you will
get immediate Flash Updates when our models move in and out
of the market.

IN ADDITION, you will also get all of our Bonus Issues
*PLUS* our mutual fund picks. And you won't be left
wondering what to do as the market careens around like an
out of control rollercoaster. For more information on
upgrading to the MarketEdge, go to:

> > > https://www.lowrisk.com/wme-secure.htm < < <



Good Luck,
Jeff


Copyright (c) 2003 by Jeff Walker, Bayfield, CO. This
newsletter may be forwarded, as long as you do so in its
entirety.

Disclaimer:
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past
performance does not guarantee future performance. The
foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.


===========================
To SUBSCRIBE: send mailto:wml-sub@lists.lowrisk.com. Or stop by
http://www.lowrisk.com/wml-sub.htm