Reportagem: Greve geral pára Autoeuropa e deixa Lisboa a meio-gás

[SergioS12]

Caros forenses, boa noite e um bom ano a todos.

Texto enviado por um amigo meu que nem investe na bolsa mas tem muito jeito para ganhar dinheiro (milhões) na empresa dele.

"Se em Janeiro de 2010 tivessem investido 1.000 eur em acções do Royal Bank of Scotland, um dos maiores bancos do Reino Unido, teriam hoje 29 euros!
•Se em Janeiro de 2010 tivessem investido 1.000 eur em acções da Lehman Brothers teriam hoje 0 euros !!!
Se em Janeiro de 2010 tivessem investido 1.000 eur em papel comercial do BES, o maior banco privado de Portugal, teriam hoje 0 euros !!!!!
•Mas se em Janeiro de 2010 tivessem gasto 1.000 eur em bom vinho tinto (e não em acções) e tivessem já bebido tudo, teriam 46 euros em garrafas vazias.
Conclusão: No cenário económico actual, é preferível esperar sentado e ir bebendo um bom tintol. Não se esqueçam de que quem sabe beber, VIVE :
- Menos triste
- Menos tenso
- Mais contente com a vida.
Pensem nisto e invistam na alegria de viver.

[BearManBull]

Com a segunda parte aí acho que o autor deve estar certo, mas é uma percepção; sinceramente não tenho dados para justificar a minha opinião. Somente os anos que tenho disto.

Interessante, olhando para o SP500 diria que não há grande correlação entre volatilidade e tendência. Isto a olho de carpinteiro.

Diria que o relevante é que a quebra de baixo volatilidade gera grande volatilidade. Ou seja quando o preço atravessa as bandas de Bollinger tende a aumentar a volatilidade.

Já o amigo GTP diz o seguinte:

Mature trends usually have lower volatility

Once everyone agrees on the direction:

Pullbacks get smaller

Price moves become smoother

Volatility contracts

That’s why strong bull markets often feel calm.

Trend reversals = volatility explosions

Near tops and bottoms:

Volatility jumps

Whipsaws increase

Direction becomes unclear

This is why reversals feel chaotic — the market is literally fighting with itself.

Downtrends tend to be more volatile than uptrends

Classic market behavior:

Fear = fast, violent moves down

Greed = slower, grind-up moves

That’s why indicators like VIX often spike during market crashes.

Honestamente concordo com esta visão. Ou seja não me parece relevante considerar a relação tendência vs volatilidade mas sim que volatilidade baixa é de trend madura e que pode estar em inversão ou explosão quando aumenta a volatilidade.

Já os bear markets tendem a ser mais voláteis. Medo mais forte do que ganancia.

[rg7803]

Part 2: Focus on Leading Sectors


After identifying the general market trend, you want to look for the leading sectors.

Why this matters is easy to understand. Investing is a game of odds. You want as many things working for you as possible.

Ask yourself this. Would you buy shares of a newspaper company today? Probably not. Very few people read physical newspapers anymore. Everything is online.

Instead of a growing market, you have a shrinking one. Naturally, demand goes down. It becomes harder to find and keep customers. Keeping good employees gets harder too. Employees are less likely to join an old, stagnant industry.

Those are natural headwinds.
Now look at the opposite. AI is one of the strongest sectors right now. Everyone wants to work in AI. It has a natural pull. Talent, capital, and attention all flow in the same direction. It becomes much easier to grow.

A leading industry is like a rising tide that lifts all boats. Not everyone benefits equally, but the overall direction matters. Ideally, you want the entire industry to do well. If all companies are down except for one, it’s often a sign that the industry has peaked or is about to decline.

Of course, no trend lasts forever.

Some industry trends last decades, some only days. The key is to be positioned in the mega trend.

Mega trends are long-term shifts that reshape industries. Think railroads, the internet, mobile, and now AI.
Boom and bust trends are short-lived spikes followed by sharp declines. Examples include SPACs and meme stocks.
Cyclical trends move in waves tied to the economy. Oil and gas are a good example, rising and falling with demand and economic growth.

[rg7803]

@bear

Concordo contigo com a primeira frase. Tenho a mesma ideia que tu, penso que os mercados, ou os activos, estão com tendência clara na maior parte do tempo.
Com a segunda parte aí acho que o autor deve estar certo, mas é uma percepção; sinceramente não tenho dados para justificar a minha opinião. Somente os anos que tenho disto.

[BearManBull]

Most of the time, the market is not trending. Only a small part of the time do we get clean, strong trends. The rest of the time, the market moves sideways.
Sideways markets are the most dangerous for active investors.
Because there is no clear direction. Tons of volatility. Breakouts fail. Pullbacks fail. You get chopped up. Whenever you think the market is about to go into your favor, it hits a wall and turns around.

Não concordo com este paragrafo.

O mercado no muito longo prazo normalmente está trending bulish basta olhar para o SP desde 1900.
Não tenho nenhuma referencia mas não tenho mentalmente associado volatilidade com lateralização. Antes pelo contrário.

[icemetal]

Grato pelo tópico

[BearManBull]

nem toda a gente tem X/Twitter, ou paciência para o que lá passa.

Efectivamente, tks.

[MarcoAntonio]

Amanhã, se tiver tempo, coloca a segunda parte. Espero que seja útil.

Obrigado pela partilha, rg.

[rg7803]

Esta é a primeira parte dum curso interessante que encontrei no X e resolvi copiar para aqui, pois nem toda a gente tem X/Twitter, ou paciência para o que lá passa.

Este é o autor (penso eu):

https://x.com/Speculator_io


Amanhã, se tiver tempo, coloca a segunda parte. Espero que seja útil.

[rg7803]

But generally, the big money is made during strong uptrends.
Why?
There are 2 main reasons for this:
First, objects in motion tend to stay in motion: When a stock is already moving up, it is more likely to keep moving up than to suddenly stop. Sentiment is positive. Everyone is only focused on the up
Second, there is typically little or no overhead supply: That means most people who own the stock are already sitting on a profit. They are not in a rush to sell. With fewer sellers, prices can move higher more easily.
However, not all trends are created equal.
Some trends are slow and steady.
Others are fast and steep.
The steeper the trend, the stronger it looks. But there is a tradeoff.
Fast moves are more fragile. When price runs up too quickly, it can get stretched. That makes it more vulnerable to sharp pullbacks or sudden reversals.
So strong trends are powerful, but they also need respect.
The goal is to ride them while they last. Nothing lasts forever.

[rg7803]

To spot these trends, you can also use simple tools like trendlines or moving averages to help you identify the overall direction.

What’s important is that there are different timeframes.
The market can be going down in the short term but still be in a long term uptrend. Or it can look strong short term while the long term trend is weak.
You need to choose the timeframe that fits your strategy.
A day trader cares about hours and days.
A swing trader looks at weeks.
A long term investor focuses on years.
And your odds are best when all timeframes line up: Short-term, mid-term, and long-term.
Most of the time, the market is not trending. Only a small part of the time do we get clean, strong trends. The rest of the time, the market moves sideways.
Sideways markets are the most dangerous for active investors.
Because there is no clear direction. Tons of volatility. Breakouts fail. Pullbacks fail. You get chopped up. Whenever you think the market is about to go into your favor, it hits a wall and turns around.
Of course, these moves can be exploited as well, if your timeframes are shorter.
But for most doing nothing is often the best move here.

[rg7803]

So, how do you identify a trend?
It shouldn’t take you more than a few seconds to identify the direction of a trend.
A trend is simply the overall direction of data points in a time series.
Let’s look at an uptrend.
First, the chart goes from bottom left to top right.
Second, there is a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Of course, the reverse works too for downtrends.

[rg7803]

Part 1: Ride the Market Trend

The big money is made during strong uptrends.
You always want to trade in the direction of the trend. As the old adage goes “The trend is your friend.” And it’s true. Why?
Investing is a game of probability.
Hence, you want to stack the odds in your favor.
Buying stocks during an uptrend is like sailing with the wind at your back. Everything feels easier. Moves happen faster and last longer. Progress comes with less effort. Everyone is focused on the upside.
When the wind is behind your back, even small pushes go a long way.
That's why everyone is a genius in a bull market.
It’s as simple as that.