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[Camisa Roxa]

NASDAQ COMMENTARY

The Nasdaq Composite broke below the 1380-1400-support/resistance band with Friday's
knife-like move and confirmed this break with Tuesday's retest from below and
subsequent follow through move lower to close near the lows of the day.

Although the market is trying to hold 1360, the damage appears to be impressive. If
the bull is to save itself the market will need to regroup and reclaim 1380-1400 in a
hurry.

The sell off from the pressure of the key 200dayEMA (40week), which we mentioned, was
impressive after having pushed the market down a quick 100 points.

From here we now have the market in bearish mode from short, intermediate and
continually long-term perspectives, while also holding below key horizontal
support/resistance (1380-1400).

Therefore, should the bulls not prove able to recover, a test of 1300-1320 should be
in the immediate future, while an ultimate reach down to 1200-1250 will not be out of
the question.

Meanwhile, should the bulls be able to reclaim lost territory amid the recent sell
off, and move on to reclaim the key resistance level of 1450, then a new long-term,
but certainly short and I-term bull may emerge.

OEX COMMENTARY

As for the OEX, we expected a break below 455-460 to bring us clean air for a
continuation move to retest 440, at least with an option to tag 400-420.

With this week's early continuation-moves lower to break down this key
support/resistance from both horizontal and trend following perspectives, we expect
this process may now be underway.

Although the bulls do still have a chance to recover and reclaim 455-460, they should
do so in a hurry to stave off any further bearish selling pressure.

Having said that, the bigger-picture potential head and shoulders formation we've
mentioned with the right shoulder coming from 470-475 does present a certain amount
of bearishness in and of itself.

As a result, we must remain bearish on the OEX below 455-460 until proven otherwise
for a move to 440 at least if not 420. Meanwhile, should we see the bulls regain some
of their recent glory and force the market back above 465-470 we'll expect the
bearishness to be negated and go on the lookout for a potential full assault on the
massive resistance level of 480.

As we've mentioned, the market having consolidated just under 480 for several
sessions needed to pull back. Although the bulls kept buying in anticipation of a
break, given the magnitude of the resistance a full-blown explosion through is
necessary to break that kind of resistance.

That's not to say a full knife like penetration, but certainly within a one to three
day period. Not over several days of meager attempts. Therefore, if the bulls make
another run at 470-480 from current levels, there's at least the potential for a true
break. But, as it stands, the bears remain in control.