Fear Gauges Diverging from One Another
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Fear Gauges Diverging from One Another
Fear Gauges Diverging from One Another
By Rick Pendergraft (rpendergraft@sir-inc.com)
1/22/2003 2:16 PM ET
Since January options expired last Friday, the two main fear gauges are diverging from one another. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX – 31.54) has turned upward and has crossed over its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 Trust Volatility Index (QQV – 37.11) has continued to slip lower.
These two barometers of investor fear usually move in tandem with one another as you can see by the chart. However, if you look at the last six sessions, the VIX has risen from 26.55 on January 14 to today's high of 32.02. This represents a 20-percent increase in the index. During this same time period, the QQV has declined from a high of 38.56 on January 14 to a low today of 36.09. While this is only a 6.4-percent decline, the discrepancy between the two is certainly worth noting.
I was unable to find a prior time period in which the action in the VIX and QQV was so diametrically opposed. However, it should be interesting to watch the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Trust (QQQ: sentiment, chart, options) and the S&P 100 Index (OEX – 450.03) to see which one will outperform the other over the next few weeks. The QQV is reaching the 36 level, which has acted as support over the past few weeks and it's approaching its most recent low of 34.84. The VIX appears to have bottomed at 26.19, which is just a shade lower than the its November low of 26.41.
- Rick Pendergraft (rpendergraft@sir-inc.com)
By Rick Pendergraft (rpendergraft@sir-inc.com)
1/22/2003 2:16 PM ET
Since January options expired last Friday, the two main fear gauges are diverging from one another. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX – 31.54) has turned upward and has crossed over its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 Trust Volatility Index (QQV – 37.11) has continued to slip lower.
These two barometers of investor fear usually move in tandem with one another as you can see by the chart. However, if you look at the last six sessions, the VIX has risen from 26.55 on January 14 to today's high of 32.02. This represents a 20-percent increase in the index. During this same time period, the QQV has declined from a high of 38.56 on January 14 to a low today of 36.09. While this is only a 6.4-percent decline, the discrepancy between the two is certainly worth noting.
I was unable to find a prior time period in which the action in the VIX and QQV was so diametrically opposed. However, it should be interesting to watch the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Trust (QQQ: sentiment, chart, options) and the S&P 100 Index (OEX – 450.03) to see which one will outperform the other over the next few weeks. The QQV is reaching the 36 level, which has acted as support over the past few weeks and it's approaching its most recent low of 34.84. The VIX appears to have bottomed at 26.19, which is just a shade lower than the its November low of 26.41.
- Rick Pendergraft (rpendergraft@sir-inc.com)
É apenas a minha humilde opinião, para qq outro esclarecimento é favor consultar: http://www.miniclip.com/askjoe.htm
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