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8:30am 10/27/04 U.S. SEPT DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 0.2% V. 0.4% EXPECTED
8:30am 10/27/04 U.S. SEPT. DURABLE GOODS SHIPMENTS FALL 1.2%
8:30am 10/27/04 U.S. SEPT. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS UP 2.6%
8:30am 10/27/04 U.S. SEPT. EX-TRANSPORTATION ORDERS UP 1.7%
8:30am 10/27/04 U.S. SEPT. ELECTRONICS ORDERS UP 9.3%
8:30am 10/27/04 U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 12.1% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

ECONOMIC REPORT: U.S. Sept. durables orders up 0.2%; Core capital goods orders up 2.6%, best in 6 months
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Oct. 27, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - New orders for U.S.-made durable goods increased 0.2 percent in September, held back by a big drop in orders for transportation goods, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Excluding the 3.6 percent drop in transportation goods, orders for durable goods increased 1.7 percent.

Total orders fell a revised 0.6 percent in August, down from the 0.3 percent decline previously reported.

Economists were expecting orders to rise about 0.4 percent in September, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

New orders are a key leading indicator of the strength of the broader economy. But the monthly data are extremely erratic, so it's the trend that matters. Over the past year, orders are up 12.1 percent, but the growth rate has weakened since March, when year-over-year orders were up by 15.9 percent.

Meanwhile, shipments of durable goods fell 1.2 percent in September, the biggest drop in 13 months. Shipments are up 10.9 percent in the past 12 months.

Unfilled orders rose 0.7 percent while inventories increased 0.3 percent.

Orders for core capital goods - a proxy for business investment in equipment - rose 2.6 percent, the most in six months. Shipments of core capital goods fell 1.7 percent.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said he believed business investment would post solid gains going forward, adding to U.S. economic strength.

Demand was mixed across industrial sectors in September. Orders for electronics surged 9.3 percent, the biggest gain in more than four years. The figure excludes semiconductors. Shipments of electronics fell 3.6 percent.

Orders for machinery increased 2.9 percent, a six-month high. Shipments of machinery rose 1.7 percent.

However, demand fell for other durable goods.

Orders for transportation goods dropped 3.6 percent, including a 16.3 percent drop in civilian aircraft on top of the 46.3 percent drop in August. Orders for motor vehicles fell 1.7 percent. Shipments of transportation goods fell 1.3 percent.

Orders for primary metals sank 2,2 percent and demand for fabricated metals fell 2 percent. Orders for electrical equipment dropped 4.8 percent.

Shipments of primary metals rose 0.4 percent, shipments of fabricated metals rose 0.3 percent, and shipments of electrical goods dropped 3.5 percent.

Orders for defense capital goods soared 26.5 percent. Shipments of defense capital goods fell 3.4 percent.