Mohan 27/10/04
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Mohan 27/10/04
Market Force: Neutral. Tuesday's reflex reversal after 5 days down in the market not yet a confirmed bullish turn around. Will know more after today's reaction.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 17.10 Value Area
Range: 11.30 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,117.25-1,116.25 Sell Pivot
1,111.80
High 1,111.80
Close 1,111.50
1,105.20 Pit Bull MA
1,100.50
1,100.25-1,101.25 Buy Pivot
Open 1,097.00
Low 1,094.70
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, October 26, 2004:
1)s@ 1100.25/ b@1101.75 -1.75 ....
*Optional trade recommended at 1107.25 short for move down to 1104.00 up to +3.00 pts.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome to Wednesday's action.
Our Headline Call was off on Tuesday as we were looking for a neutral market above 1095.00. Instead prices turned bullish along with the High 5 and climbed higher substantially.
I was willing to miss a move by standing aside on Tuesday to avoid getting into another tight 3pts. trading range. The good news is that the markets are opening up and trading during this nervous period in the Stock Market.
Here are my Wrap Up comments on the Live Update Service.
"The market opened slightly higher today up just under +2.00 pts at 1097.00, pulled back a little and then stabalized near 1101.00
Hour One high came in at 1101.75. We wanted to be extra careful today in not getting caught in a choppy market over trading.
We got short at 1100.25 just under the Hour One high, saw the market pull back to 1099.00 and stall. After holding out for sometime I decided we would cut the trade and go flat with the market trading at breakeven on our trade.
Seconds after I put out the signal to cover the market ran up to 1102.00 and pulled back towards 1101.50 giving us fills in that area for a -1.50 loss average.
At that point with the market very quiet around 12:00 est we stood aside. Later the market began pushing higher above above 1103.00 which was resistance, ran through the Pit Bull at 1106.30, and climbed a bit higher.
I gave an Optional Trade signal at 1107.25 with a stop at 1108.00 and recommended covering below 1105.00 as I was not planning on monitoring the signal. Prices dropped to 1104 on the low of that move and I posted that traders should be out of that trade for up to +3.00 points.
Later in the session with prices stabalizing between 1105-07.00 and the High 5 turning Mega Bullish prices made their way up to 1112.00 on the highs for a rather impressive rally off yesterday's 1089.00 low area."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today our Market Force reading is Neutral. The reflex rebound on Tuesday off of 5 days down in the markets needs to confirm itself. We lost -204 Dow points on the 5 days down and rallied +138 on Tuesday.
Good chance we could get a strong early trade today but the question would be if they fizzle out later in the session or hold up bullish.
In this sense we are still in a limbo condition although we made quite an impressive rebound off of the lows of 1089.50 on Monday.
With the reading Neutral and elections pending in 4 working days let's see how today reacts.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We can look to Sell higher prices after the Hour One finishes and we see the Highs. Good chance if we push up there we will see resistance a few points above the Hour One highs.
Question will be if we get a normal pullback off of that high (if that occurs) OR we collapse and return to the Bearish Sell Mode.
On a lower opening and early drop we can be on the lookout to be buying in line for a higher move up again to test above 1112.00.
Value Area: 1,100.50 - 1,111.80
The top of the Value Area includes the highs where a lot of volume was done. If prices cannot sustain above the Value Area then we will find that it was later stages of a reflex rebound only after 5 days down and not the start of new bullish action.
Overall, those of you who have been with us a while, know that I have been bullish since the beginning of the Iraq War and have been expecting a bullish run into the end of this year.
That still appears on track so at some point prices are going to powerfully lift off a low point and start "Leveling Up".
This is a term I've used many times to describe how when we reach a bottom phase and a new Bullish phase begins prices move up in chunks or levels. You have to be long BEFORE this starts as there are not systematic pullbacks. Just levels higher on gap opens, rallys, and more gap up opens. I don't think this has begun just yet...BUT TODAY WILL GIVE US HINTS as to if it may have.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,100.25 - 1,101.25
Good support here now at the 1100.00 handle. Look for a buy here if we move down this low. Not expected today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,117.25 - 1,116.25
Look for a Sell up in this area after comparing with the Hour One high. Very good chance we could rally up here today and then get a decent pullback.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,105.20
We Crossed over the Pit Bull on Tuesday and moved decisively higher. As mentioned in briefing here today the question remains as to if we can really get em going TODAY or we pullback from the early highs.
Still a bit in limbo with many Wild Cards present in the market.
Pro Trader's Action
Although we missed the larger scale up move yesterday, albeit on purpose, I am glad to see that the markets were willing to trade and put in a good range day.
There was a concern that we could have just stalled above the highs and went nowhere inspite of a bullish High 5. We saw this occur just a few days ago.
So this is a good sign that there is some play in the market. I still want to be cautious today but ready to trade the right signals and Hold out for a regular range move. IE: Giving the maret the benefit of the doubt that we will keep up the ranges.
Looking mostly for a Buy on a lower open and early run lower to support for a completion of an up pattern.
A higher opening and early rally will have me looking more towards selling the Hour One high plus a few points for a pullback. We will then look to see the strength behind any pullbacks that might occur to read bias going into the election.
Good Luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 17.10 Value Area
Range: 11.30 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,117.25-1,116.25 Sell Pivot
1,111.80
High 1,111.80
Close 1,111.50
1,105.20 Pit Bull MA
1,100.50
1,100.25-1,101.25 Buy Pivot
Open 1,097.00
Low 1,094.70
Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, October 26, 2004:
1)s@ 1100.25/ b@1101.75 -1.75 ....
*Optional trade recommended at 1107.25 short for move down to 1104.00 up to +3.00 pts.
Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome to Wednesday's action.
Our Headline Call was off on Tuesday as we were looking for a neutral market above 1095.00. Instead prices turned bullish along with the High 5 and climbed higher substantially.
I was willing to miss a move by standing aside on Tuesday to avoid getting into another tight 3pts. trading range. The good news is that the markets are opening up and trading during this nervous period in the Stock Market.
Here are my Wrap Up comments on the Live Update Service.
"The market opened slightly higher today up just under +2.00 pts at 1097.00, pulled back a little and then stabalized near 1101.00
Hour One high came in at 1101.75. We wanted to be extra careful today in not getting caught in a choppy market over trading.
We got short at 1100.25 just under the Hour One high, saw the market pull back to 1099.00 and stall. After holding out for sometime I decided we would cut the trade and go flat with the market trading at breakeven on our trade.
Seconds after I put out the signal to cover the market ran up to 1102.00 and pulled back towards 1101.50 giving us fills in that area for a -1.50 loss average.
At that point with the market very quiet around 12:00 est we stood aside. Later the market began pushing higher above above 1103.00 which was resistance, ran through the Pit Bull at 1106.30, and climbed a bit higher.
I gave an Optional Trade signal at 1107.25 with a stop at 1108.00 and recommended covering below 1105.00 as I was not planning on monitoring the signal. Prices dropped to 1104 on the low of that move and I posted that traders should be out of that trade for up to +3.00 points.
Later in the session with prices stabalizing between 1105-07.00 and the High 5 turning Mega Bullish prices made their way up to 1112.00 on the highs for a rather impressive rally off yesterday's 1089.00 low area."
Today's Call & Briefing:
Today our Market Force reading is Neutral. The reflex rebound on Tuesday off of 5 days down in the markets needs to confirm itself. We lost -204 Dow points on the 5 days down and rallied +138 on Tuesday.
Good chance we could get a strong early trade today but the question would be if they fizzle out later in the session or hold up bullish.
In this sense we are still in a limbo condition although we made quite an impressive rebound off of the lows of 1089.50 on Monday.
With the reading Neutral and elections pending in 4 working days let's see how today reacts.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: We can look to Sell higher prices after the Hour One finishes and we see the Highs. Good chance if we push up there we will see resistance a few points above the Hour One highs.
Question will be if we get a normal pullback off of that high (if that occurs) OR we collapse and return to the Bearish Sell Mode.
On a lower opening and early drop we can be on the lookout to be buying in line for a higher move up again to test above 1112.00.
Value Area: 1,100.50 - 1,111.80
The top of the Value Area includes the highs where a lot of volume was done. If prices cannot sustain above the Value Area then we will find that it was later stages of a reflex rebound only after 5 days down and not the start of new bullish action.
Overall, those of you who have been with us a while, know that I have been bullish since the beginning of the Iraq War and have been expecting a bullish run into the end of this year.
That still appears on track so at some point prices are going to powerfully lift off a low point and start "Leveling Up".
This is a term I've used many times to describe how when we reach a bottom phase and a new Bullish phase begins prices move up in chunks or levels. You have to be long BEFORE this starts as there are not systematic pullbacks. Just levels higher on gap opens, rallys, and more gap up opens. I don't think this has begun just yet...BUT TODAY WILL GIVE US HINTS as to if it may have.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,100.25 - 1,101.25
Good support here now at the 1100.00 handle. Look for a buy here if we move down this low. Not expected today.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,117.25 - 1,116.25
Look for a Sell up in this area after comparing with the Hour One high. Very good chance we could rally up here today and then get a decent pullback.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,105.20
We Crossed over the Pit Bull on Tuesday and moved decisively higher. As mentioned in briefing here today the question remains as to if we can really get em going TODAY or we pullback from the early highs.
Still a bit in limbo with many Wild Cards present in the market.
Pro Trader's Action
Although we missed the larger scale up move yesterday, albeit on purpose, I am glad to see that the markets were willing to trade and put in a good range day.
There was a concern that we could have just stalled above the highs and went nowhere inspite of a bullish High 5. We saw this occur just a few days ago.
So this is a good sign that there is some play in the market. I still want to be cautious today but ready to trade the right signals and Hold out for a regular range move. IE: Giving the maret the benefit of the doubt that we will keep up the ranges.
Looking mostly for a Buy on a lower open and early run lower to support for a completion of an up pattern.
A higher opening and early rally will have me looking more towards selling the Hour One high plus a few points for a pullback. We will then look to see the strength behind any pullbacks that might occur to read bias going into the election.
Good Luck today and I'll see you in the action. Mohan
Alex
- Mensagens: 119
- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
- Localização: Lisboa
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