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[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Today is a double sided Scalp day. Means: early push higher and trading at highs after first hour...stay on Sell Side. early push lower and trading on lows after first hour...look for support to scalp rally off lows.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 16.30 Value Area
Range: 10.80 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,118.50 Pit Bull MA
High 1,118.30
1,118.20
Open 1,116.50
1,113.75-1,112.75 Sell Pivot
1,107.40
Close 1,103.50
Low 1,102.00
1,097.50-1,098.50 Buy Pivot



Trade Setup Summary for Tuesday, October 19, 2004:
1)S@1115.00/B@1112.00 +3.00.....

2)S@111.75/ B@1112.50 -.75...

Recap of Tuesday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome to Wednesday's Action.

Things got hammered in the S&P Indexes on Tuesday later in the session after a choppy mid session lower.

Here's what occured in our trades on the Live Update Service.

"We came in today looking to get on the short side ideally by selling the BreakOut or even willing to go short at the Hour One low.

The range between the Hour One pivots was tight and the BreakDown low was hit first. This also coincided with an MFO signal so we got short at 1115.00.

Prices came down pretty smoothly to the 1111.50 area which we had pegged as first support. With the High 5 not looking too bad we covered there near 1112.00 for +3.00 pts. and waited for another opportunity to short.

We had mentioned the possibility of 1109.50 being next level support and after we got out prices drifted down to that level. I wanted to short again on a rebound. We got a rebound to 1112.00 which was the area I wanted to see for a short and showed ticks on fills occuring near 1111.75.

Prices hung around the 1111 area even pressing to 1113 on 3 occasions for almost an hour. I decided the market could get choppy for the rest of the day and got out at 1112.50 for a -.75 loss.

Well, that proved to be a mistake as prices slowly drifted to 1109.00 again, pressed back up to 1112.00, and then proceeded to collapse lower stopping at 1105-6.00. Stalling in that area for about 40 minutes prices then proceeded to head even lower hitting 1102 on the lows into the close. So we ended up profitable today but in hindsite it would have been nice to hold short. We'll get em tommorrow."

Today's Call & Briefing:
LIVE UPDATE TRADERS: NO EARLY TRADING TODAY. WILL BE WAITING FOR FIRST HOUR TO COMPLETE.

Today in our Headline Call the Market Force is Bearish/Neutral.

What this means is that we have a potential 2 sided scalp type day FAVORING an early drop to test support (1095-97) and then a rebound move off of that.

That's the favored setup. The alternative would be to see a rebound right off the opening stretching up near 1105.50-7.00 that Fizzles back down lower testing support again.

The way we would look to trade that action is to WAIT FOR THE FIRST HOUR TO FINISH and then look for the following.

*If we hit the Hour One low FIRST then watch for some pushing below that, some small jumps off of that, more testing lows, and then a stabalization move higher.

REMEMBER WEDNESDAY IS THE SECOND MOST BULLISH DAY OF THE WEEK. So today is favoring a rebound off early lows of somekind.

*If we move higher right off the open then watch for the Hour One high to get hit and depending on how large the range between the Hour 1 High and Low are we would look for the FAILURE of that early rally to pullback. However, this would only be for a SCALP PULLBACK.

In fact, today we just want to watch for Scalping action and not particularly any extended trends like we had on Tuesday.

Value Area: 1,107.40 - 1,118.20
This bottom of the VA is big resistance for today. If they stretch em up here and move higher into the VA then next level resistance is 1110-1111.00

Buy Pivot Target: 1,097.50 - 1,098.50
Here is a strong support area. Watch for this area to correlate with the Hour One BreakDown. Look at 1093.25 to hold up the selling.

Watch out if this is an early low. Let em get pounded out a bit after the first hour if prices are working the lows. Then as the last bears get in we should jump some higher. We can scalp that action.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,113.75 - 1,112.75
Maybe we will get up here on a rebound today but it should hold back the buying. On a lower, early move we would look for 1107.00 to be the first rebound area.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,118.50
Holding below the Pit Bull you can see we are getting support from this idea in our Market Force short term Sell Mode.

That Sell Mode started at 1126.00, pulled back to 1101.50 area, rallied hard and went into a temporary aberration that shot prices up to 1143. area and then came back to 1126.00.

I have been narrating these movements of the Market Force short term Sell Mode since it began. Now we are in the stages of the Sell Mode where we will probably get some hammering lower that will start getting the Market Force to start reversing and "Rolling to a New Buy Mode"

I will, of course, inform you when that is occuring. We are a ways from that and could get hammered another 5-10 points or so lower from here before we see that rolling to buy action.

Pro Trader's Action
Scalp day today with mixed bias so we need to be careful. Looking to wait for the first hour and get a nice, clean play off of the Hour One pivots.

The ideal for us would be the lower, early action hitting the Hour One low, slicing a few points off of that and looking for an MFO signal to get long.

We can trade either side. If they rally first then that's great as there is resistance ahead waiting for us to short with our MFO letting us know when.

Good Luck today with your trades. I'll see you in the action. Mohan