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[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish. Look for early, higher prices to pull back from rallies later in the session.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 11.90 Value Area
Range: 8.10 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,121.80 Pit Bull MA
1,117.75-1,116.75 Sell Pivot
1,115.20
High 1,115.20
Close 1,113.10
1,107.10
1,105.75-1,106.75 Buy Pivot
Open 1,105.20
Low 1,103.30



Trade Setup Summary for Monday, October 18, 2004:
)S@1107.00/B@1109.25 -2.25....

2)S@1111.50/B@1113.50 -2.00....

3)S@1113.00/B@1114.50 -1.50....

4)S@1113.75/B@1113.75...0

Recap of Monday's Action:
Good Morning,

Our Headline Call for what we were expecting for Monday panned out fairly close to expectations but trading for us on Monday was more difficult. The market was very choppy and full of surprises costing us some points but today is expected to be clearer.

Here are my Live Update comments for the trading day on Monday. We'll get em today.

"We came in today waiting for the first hour to finish. I got signals to go short at 1107.00 so we entered with a tight stop.

Prices headed lower from 1107.00 and with the High 5 looking bearish we held short. Prices hit the opening at 1105.25 and moved lower just below the Hour One low at 1105.00 at 1103.50. Holding short prices gradually moved back above the open and then were soon back at entry. This was a problem as the High 5 still appeared weak so we wanted to see if prices would hold below the Hour One High at 1108.75 and press back lower again. With stop at 1109.25 it got hit for a -2.25 loss.

After jumping higher we hit 1111.50 and we traded the short side again. Too early... as prices ramped up and touched off our stop for a -2.00 loss.

We then got short at 1113.00 after some time, saw prices pull back but then gradually rose and touched the highs hitting our tight stop at 1114.50 for a -1.50 loss. We wanted to take one more stab on the short side and got short at 1113.75. Prices camd down and traded in the 1111.00 area only to move back up and reach for the highs again so we got out with a breakeven to slight loss of -.50 on that trade.

Today was one of the choppiest and difficult read days Ive seen in a while. This usually indicates that we are ready to move strongly in one direction. It appears there is still a good chance we are going to move lower again, test the low, and create more confusion for both sides before finally turning around to the upside."

Today's Call & Briefing:
The overall goal today is to look to stay on the Sell Side of the market. Although I was looking for a mild day up on Monday we were sticking to the sell side a bit too much. Today I am expecting that this strategy will bear more fruit.

We will not be trading the first hour today as I am expecting the market will run up higher first, hang up near the highs for a bit and then sell off later in the session.

Of course the possibility is always there for an instant Bear Ugly type day off the open but I don't think that is going to occur today. Instead I think we will see the bulls take control in the first few hours and hold the market up. At that point we can see if they continue to be extended (the bulls) and with today's Day to Day sequencing pattern we should see em sell off later.

RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: As we want to look to stay on the Sell Side of the market what we will be looking for is to Sell a BreakOut attempt or to Sell the Hour One low with strong Bearish High 5 signals.

IF we see that the early upside occurs creating a Mega Bullish High 5 then we will have to consider that we could get a BreakOut buy rally. I am NOT expecting this for today but the possibility of course exists.

Instead if the High 5 are strong but not Mega Bullish we will look for a spot 2-3 points above the Hour One high to look to short.

Value Area: 1,107.10 - 1,115.20
Top of Value area will give clues as to whether a rally will pullback to this 1115.00 area and stall or we will continue above this zone.

If we pull back into the VA and move below 1107 then the prediction yesterday for the lower prices running below the 1100 handle could come true very soon.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,105.75 - 1,106.75
Watch for prices that move down here and STALL not being able to rally off this area. If the High 5 are weak then we should see slow erosion set in finding support at 1101.50 which has held twice.

3rd time may NOT be a charm and we could plow through this number towards next level lower goal of 1097.00

Sell Pivot Target: 1,117.75 - 1,116.75
We will watch this zone today along with the Hour One high. With 1122.00 being the +4.25 stop/pivot we could see this zone being the Stall zone I refer to in the Headline Call for prices to "hang up" near the highs before selling off.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,121.80
This same Pit Bull price area is almost exactly at our 1122.00 stop/pivot price on the Sell Pivot. Big resistance here.

Pro Trader's Action
Look to stay on the Sell Side today of any early rallies unless we get a Mega Bullish High 5. Even with this we would look for the Hour One high if it is extended enough, to hold back most of the buying a few points above it.

We rallied yesterday off of the Hour One high and usually day 2 of that is going to find resistance unless we are in a Rip Roaring Bullish trend, which we certainly are not at this time.

Watch the numbers near 1117-1122.00 for a stall zone that ends up pulling back today later.

If we get a hard sell off FIRST then it's a WILD CARD meaning we could sink below the Hour One lows considerably if that is the first Hour One pivot hit today.

Good Luck and I'll see you in the action. Mohan