Mohan 18/10/04
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Mohan 18/10/04
Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Expect one more weak day up today with neutral MF reading as market prepares to sell off below the 1100.00 handle to complete current Sell Mode.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, October 18, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 11.50 Value Area
Range: 5.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,124.00 Pit Bull MA
1,114.00-1,113.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,113.70
1,111.00
Close 1,108.30
Open 1,106.30
1,105.60
1,102.50-1,103.50 Buy Pivot
Low 1,102.20
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 15, 2004:
No Live Trades on Friday.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we had the Options Expiration which showed support coming in just above the 1100.00 handle and a decent rally that more or less fizzled out later in the session.
Due to Options Expiration we did not do any Live Updates for trades on Friday.
I am very excited to be introducing our new approach to the markets this week using our Market Force Oscillator on the Hour One pivots and in calling those days when we expect the market to make a move BEFORE the first hour is complete.
Usually I am able to indentify those days in advance here on the Morning Call and will alert you if we are preparing to trade early that day.
Of course it is impossible to know for sure each and every time when this is going to occur but those who have been with us a while have seen the accuracy we have in determining when that will occur.
Monday's traditionally are "Wait unti the first hour is complete for trading" days as we use that open and first run directional indicator to give us strong hints as to the days bias.
More on this below.
Today's Call & Briefing:
The Market Force is Bearish/Neutral today and what we will be looking for is important hints as to completion of the bias by watching the opening and first market directional run.
Overall I am expecting one more mild up day off an early, lower drop that will catch support after the first hour and move higher. Later this week (like tommorrow depending on how we react to today's first run) we could see a lower move that takes us below the 1100.00 handle.
Many indicators are neutral now and preparing for a big move one way or the other. However, we are still in the completion phase of the Sell Mode from 1126.00 after a brief aberration rally above that which never caught fire to the upside.
What this WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST in my years of tracking these Market Force underlying indicators is that we are getting ready to make one more hard dive lower that will spook a lot of bulls, get them bearish, and really set the stage for the new Buy Mode which we are on the verge of rolling into anytime.
The symptom of the new Buy Mode "Opening up" will be a big, one day rally which will move the prices substantially off the consistently pressed lows. We are seeing these lows near 1102-5 get pressed now and with some lower testing at first support of 1096.00 we could find some turn around energy possibly starting. May need to crunch em just a bit lower for added panic effect.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is a good chance of seeing the BreakDown Hour One low be the first pivot hit today (of the Hour Ones) and if that is the case AND THE HIGH 5 ARE NOT MEGA BEARISH then we will most likely be looking for a reflex buy opportunity.
If the High 5 are weak and have a POTENTIAL of developing into something a bit weaker and we see the prices not bouncing off of the Hour One low (if indeed that is the first pivot hit) then we could be in for a stronger drop below the Hour One pivot that turns into a Bearish move. So much of this is determined in the live action by watching the price movements at support and resistance.
*Look for the Hour One pivot to get hit and then see how prices behave at or below it. Is there stalling at the H1 pivot? How does the High 5 look? Improving towards bullish or becoming more bearish with an increase in TRIN and weakening of Nasdaq NOT followed by higher prices?
In this way by asking the questions you get the answers and the feeling for what to do.
On the other side if we get an early move higher to test 1114 or above then we could see a more substantial sell off occur later in the session today.
IE: early flat to lower open and run lower= Look for slight rebound later.
flat to higher open and early run up = Look for weaker prices later in the seession with corresponding High 5.
Value Area: 1,105.60 - 1,111.00
This small VA range will be important today in looking for support and resistance hints.
Trade holding above 1100 early is strong but beware of prices pulling back later in the session and falling back into the VA as a sign of weakness and the Sell Mode still being in charge.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,102.50 - 1,103.50
This is still support but wait for the first hour to complete and see if we get some lower testing of this before looking for a rebound.
1098.25 is support but they could run em up just before that.
Will depend on the High 5 as an overall measure of temperature of the markets.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,114.00 - 1,113.00
Look for some resistance up here but above this we shoot for 1118.00.
It is expected that this price area will hold back most of the buying today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,124.00
If for any reason we get some kind of news that creates a Mega Bullish atmosphere then cancel the Headline Call and just look to get long. This is not expected for today but is common sense for everyday in trading along with our approach.
For today such an event could push prices up to 1118.00 and then blowing through that we would look for this Pit Bull number to hold em back.
Pro Trader's Action
Today is expected to be weak. Either a weak bounce off of a flat to lower opening or an early rally that fizzles out later in the session.
This is how to interpret our Headline Call for today.
Watch for the opening and the "first run" (in 20 minutes or so) to be a determining factor of what to look for.
Should be an exciting week and I'lll look forward to seeing you in the action.
All the best, Mohan
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Monday, October 18, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 11.50 Value Area
Range: 5.40 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,124.00 Pit Bull MA
1,114.00-1,113.00 Sell Pivot
High 1,113.70
1,111.00
Close 1,108.30
Open 1,106.30
1,105.60
1,102.50-1,103.50 Buy Pivot
Low 1,102.20
Trade Setup Summary for Friday, October 15, 2004:
No Live Trades on Friday.
Recap of Friday's Action:
Good Morning and Welcome back from the weekend.
On Friday we had the Options Expiration which showed support coming in just above the 1100.00 handle and a decent rally that more or less fizzled out later in the session.
Due to Options Expiration we did not do any Live Updates for trades on Friday.
I am very excited to be introducing our new approach to the markets this week using our Market Force Oscillator on the Hour One pivots and in calling those days when we expect the market to make a move BEFORE the first hour is complete.
Usually I am able to indentify those days in advance here on the Morning Call and will alert you if we are preparing to trade early that day.
Of course it is impossible to know for sure each and every time when this is going to occur but those who have been with us a while have seen the accuracy we have in determining when that will occur.
Monday's traditionally are "Wait unti the first hour is complete for trading" days as we use that open and first run directional indicator to give us strong hints as to the days bias.
Today's Call & Briefing:
The Market Force is Bearish/Neutral today and what we will be looking for is important hints as to completion of the bias by watching the opening and first market directional run.
Overall I am expecting one more mild up day off an early, lower drop that will catch support after the first hour and move higher. Later this week (like tommorrow depending on how we react to today's first run) we could see a lower move that takes us below the 1100.00 handle.
Many indicators are neutral now and preparing for a big move one way or the other. However, we are still in the completion phase of the Sell Mode from 1126.00 after a brief aberration rally above that which never caught fire to the upside.
What this WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST in my years of tracking these Market Force underlying indicators is that we are getting ready to make one more hard dive lower that will spook a lot of bulls, get them bearish, and really set the stage for the new Buy Mode which we are on the verge of rolling into anytime.
The symptom of the new Buy Mode "Opening up" will be a big, one day rally which will move the prices substantially off the consistently pressed lows. We are seeing these lows near 1102-5 get pressed now and with some lower testing at first support of 1096.00 we could find some turn around energy possibly starting. May need to crunch em just a bit lower for added panic effect.
RECOMMENDED SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: There is a good chance of seeing the BreakDown Hour One low be the first pivot hit today (of the Hour Ones) and if that is the case AND THE HIGH 5 ARE NOT MEGA BEARISH then we will most likely be looking for a reflex buy opportunity.
If the High 5 are weak and have a POTENTIAL of developing into something a bit weaker and we see the prices not bouncing off of the Hour One low (if indeed that is the first pivot hit) then we could be in for a stronger drop below the Hour One pivot that turns into a Bearish move. So much of this is determined in the live action by watching the price movements at support and resistance.
*Look for the Hour One pivot to get hit and then see how prices behave at or below it. Is there stalling at the H1 pivot? How does the High 5 look? Improving towards bullish or becoming more bearish with an increase in TRIN and weakening of Nasdaq NOT followed by higher prices?
In this way by asking the questions you get the answers and the feeling for what to do.
On the other side if we get an early move higher to test 1114 or above then we could see a more substantial sell off occur later in the session today.
IE: early flat to lower open and run lower= Look for slight rebound later.
flat to higher open and early run up = Look for weaker prices later in the seession with corresponding High 5.
Value Area: 1,105.60 - 1,111.00
This small VA range will be important today in looking for support and resistance hints.
Trade holding above 1100 early is strong but beware of prices pulling back later in the session and falling back into the VA as a sign of weakness and the Sell Mode still being in charge.
Buy Pivot Target: 1,102.50 - 1,103.50
This is still support but wait for the first hour to complete and see if we get some lower testing of this before looking for a rebound.
1098.25 is support but they could run em up just before that.
Will depend on the High 5 as an overall measure of temperature of the markets.
Sell Pivot Target: 1,114.00 - 1,113.00
Look for some resistance up here but above this we shoot for 1118.00.
It is expected that this price area will hold back most of the buying today.
10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,124.00
If for any reason we get some kind of news that creates a Mega Bullish atmosphere then cancel the Headline Call and just look to get long. This is not expected for today but is common sense for everyday in trading along with our approach.
For today such an event could push prices up to 1118.00 and then blowing through that we would look for this Pit Bull number to hold em back.
Pro Trader's Action
Today is expected to be weak. Either a weak bounce off of a flat to lower opening or an early rally that fizzles out later in the session.
This is how to interpret our Headline Call for today.
Watch for the opening and the "first run" (in 20 minutes or so) to be a determining factor of what to look for.
Should be an exciting week and I'lll look forward to seeing you in the action.
All the best, Mohan
Alex
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- Registado: 31/7/2003 17:41
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