“É o preconceito contra a flexibilização que tem conduzido a salários baixos”

[alex01]

Market Force: Bearish/Neutral. Important Job report this morning should find support near 1126.00 if negative with market expecting to push higher off of any lower moves today.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Friday, October 8, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 9.90 Value Area
Range: 5.20 TCF Key Numbers for ES
High 1,140.60
Open 1,140.50
1,137.75-1,136.75 Sell Pivot
1,136.20
Close 1,131.40
1,131.00
Low 1,130.70
1,127.75-1,128.75 Buy Pivot
1,123.60 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Thursday, October 7, 2004:
1)B@1135.75/.36.00/ S@1133.50/.75 -2.25.....

2)B@1133.75/34.00/ Sell half position at 1135.75 for +2.00/Cover rest on trailing stop at 1134.25 for +.25/.50

Recap of Thursday's Action:
Good Morning and thank you for joining us today. Prices took off to the downside early as suggested for our alternative scenario if we did not see the numbers hang up at the highs.

What occured instead was the prices went down to the Hour One low at 1137.50, one of our key support areas shown, and then gradually sold off lower into the close.

With the fast early sell off we tried to buy some support areas and were unsuccessful on one and succesful on the other so we ended up with a break even day. We had the early sell off pegged for getting short but I just wanted a slight bounce off the small drop off the open around 1139.00 but it was not to occur so we stood aside as prices moved towards 11355.50.

Here are my Wrap Up comments from the Live Trading Service

"The market opened up at 1140.75 down -2.00 handles and began to sell off from there. I was looking for a bounce off of 1139.00 to try and position short but prices took off lower first.

First support came in at the 1135.50 area and this became a focal price point for the day. After moving lower towards 1133.00 prices found support and moved back towards this 1135.00 area.

We attempted a buy position just above this at 1135.75/36.00 but prices moved lower after entry and we got stopped out at 1133.50/.75 for a -2.25 loss.

After some work on the lower numbers I got a MFO signal to get long at support 1133.75/34.00 which we took and saw prices rally to 1136.50 before dropping off. Originally I had identified 1135.75 and 36.650 as a spot to take profits but some signals came in suggesting that we could rally much further.

Later after prices began to pullback I got counter signals suggesting we were going lower so I suggested taking off some contracts at 1135.75 which was possible for a +2.00 gain. We had tightened our stop on the long from 1133.75 to 1134.25 and gradually prices moved lower and tapped that taking us out for a +.50 gain.

Later prices moved lower in a washout near the close hitting 1130.50."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is going to be an interesting and perhaps tricky day in the markets.

We have a group of government reports coming out the most important for traders is the Jobs report or unemployment situation.

This report also ties in with one of the important issues being debated in the race for U.S. President and tonite is the 2nd Prez debate. So in this way this report has some importance on the influence of today's market.

We closed just 2 points below Wednesday's low so although we have had a big sell off on Thursday in comparison to Wednesday's later rally to 1143.00 the market is still pretty much neutral.

The market is now in a limbo state either waiting to return to a full Sell Mode below 1126.00 or to remain in an aberration on the Sell Mode and move higher.

This is why in the Headline Call I have mentioned 1126.00. A negative Jobs report could send prices down to this point where we would look for support to come in to keep the Aberration intact and see prices push higher again.

I had mentioned on the Intraday Live Update Service about the 1134-36 area being sort of a pivot area now and if prices do press down to 1126 then a reflex bounce back to this 1134-36 area would be expected.

TRADING SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If we do get a negative jobs report and prices get hit to the downside then watch for this support and when the markets open we should be able to see where the bias is running. If negative then we can look for the Hour One lows to hold, find support and move higher.

If a positive report or construed as positive, then an early rally after the opening (the report comes out an hour before the U.S. stock market opens) is expected to see some continued weakness after the first hour is complete. We would be looking at this 1136.00 area to show some resistance.

SUPPORT comes in at 1130.00, 1128.50 and then 1126.00. Below 1125.00 the next support which is strong is 1122.50.

RESISTANCE comes in at 1134-1136 then back to 1138.50 which was an important number the last few sessions and then 1141-43.50

Value Area: 1,131.00 - 1,136.20
You can see the Value Area covers this range up to the 1136.00 pivot number. Trade holding below that is neutral down to 1126 where we start to either enter back strongly into the previous Sell Mode or start pushing higher again continuing the aberration on the Sell Mode.

The aberration was getting a bit tired as I had mentioned in our postings and Thursday was the result. Now it is up to the markets within this bracketed zone to show us what it wants to do.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,127.75 - 1,128.75
The Buy pivot is right near the support area of 1126.00 so we can watch this zone between 1126-29.00 for support. Below that is the stop/pivot at 1123.50.

Trading down there would put us back in the Sell Mode and prices would probably get hammered further.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,137.75 - 1,136.75
Just above the important pivotal area is the Sell Pivot today.

Resistance here will depend on how the Jobs report is being dealt with by traders. Most likely we will move up to this area with a positive report but watch 1141.00 for resistance at the +4.25 stop/pivot.

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,123.60
As mentioned in yesterday's Morning Call briefing, " We expect that the gap between the closing prices on the futures and the Pit Bull will close up some soon but will remain in a bullish type trend through the election."

We saw this occur on Thursday and now are looking to see if we can tighten it a bit more today before bouncing off of this closing gap again with the aberration on the Sell Mode intact for higher prices.

Pro Trader's Action
Today is a bit of a Wild Card in terms of what the bias will be. We also have the 2nd Presidential debate coming up tonite so we may see prices go wild after the Jobs report and then setttle to trade in a tight range.

That is what I am expecting and will be watching carefully to see if we want to get involved in any trades today.

Watch 1126 and 1136 and see which price level we settle to give us an idea of next weeks trading bias overall.

Have a great weekend, look for the ranges to open up some next week and for us to catch the intraday trends more precisely with the expanded range.

As always I appreciate your joining with us and being a subscriber to my services. All the best to you and your family there, Mohan