“É o preconceito contra a flexibilização que tem conduzido a salários baixos”

[alex01]

Market Force: Neutral. Look for higher early prices to hang up near the highs and then sell off later in the session.
ESZ04 S&P500 E-mini Futures
Thursday, October 7, 2004
Prev Day - SP
Range: 10.00 Value Area
Range: 5.00 TCF Key Numbers for ES
1,146.50-1,145.50 Sell Pivot
High 1,143.70
Close 1,142.80
1,138.80
1,136.50-1,137.50 Buy Pivot
Open 1,134.80
1,133.80
Low 1,133.70
1,121.20 Pit Bull MA



Trade Setup Summary for Wednesday, October 6, 2004:
1)S@1136.25/B@1136.75 -.50....

2)S@1137.50/B@1137.50 Breakeven...

Recap of Wednesday's Action:
Good Morning,

Today was the tightest range of the last 3 days so far until the final half hour of trading when, after being totally flat all day, prices broke out above 1139.00 to the exact upper resistance number I gave on the Morning Call at 1143.50.

We had been shorting the higher early move and each time got pullbacks and then return to entry to stall. So we were able to break even on these 2 go nowhere trades in the 2.50 trading range. Here are my Wrap Up comments on the day.

"We came in today with an open mind looking for the ranges to expand out of the small tight levels they have been trading in lately.

We basically had a repeat of the same range bound market we saw on Monday and Tueaday with even tighter trading today until the final half hour when prices broke out to the upside.

We got short first at 1136.25 looking for a decent pullback. There was a run down to the 1134.00 area and then prices stabalized and moved back higher.

After seeing a bit of pressure on our stop I could see that we had been in the trade long enough to expect higher prices so we cut the trade at 1136.75 for a -.50 loss (fills on this and all trade may vary by a few ticks).

Next we saw prices move higher and again we got another MFO signal to go short which was triggered at 1137.25/.50. Prices held up longer on this trade but gradually started pulling back. I was expecting a move at least to the Hour One low at 1133.50 but was willing to cover up the trade with 3pts of profit.

We only got as low as 1135.50 and it appeared we were on our way to another very tight range day. We got out of this trade at Break Even and stood aside.

Later prices took off in the last half hour above 1138.50-39.00 and caught fire as they pressed all the way up as high as 1143.75 cracking the range bound market as we had suggested in the Morning Call. This high was the exact upper resistance number we gave on the Morning Call today.

The upside move was rather unexpected however with all the support on the 1135.00 area it was not entirely surprising they broke out in that direction."

Today's Call & Briefing:
Today is expected to see prices push a bit higher in the early session and then hang up near newly established highs selling off later in the session.

We cannot know for sure that this exact scenario will occur but very many times over the years when our Market Force indicators have spotted such a setup it does occur.

What I like to do is give the alternative to that scenario. If we get a fast, early sell off then we would expect prices to find support and push higher, then take out the highs with weakness showing up later in the session.

The only thing that would thwart this setup would be an extremely hard sell off early in the session or overnight on Globex. This would most likely cause prices to start rallying some more. This is NOT expected for today.

TRADING SETUPS TO WATCH FOR TODAY: If we get the early higher prices as expected then we want to look for small pullbacks off of the early highs that keep finding support but that run into larger scale selling later.

Usually the best thing to do is to try and nail the prices closest to the highs and then wait for the later selling to occur. Another process is to try and not get in the market until this setup is occuring and ready to sell off. Usually this will occur after 1:30 est.

If we get a hard, early drop then we want to look to buy support near 1137.00 for a consolidation move higher. This would make trading a bit more tricky today if this occurs but we would still look to stay on the sell side later in the session.

Resistance is now at 1146.75-1151.00 and 1153.75.

Support is now: 1141.00-1138.50-1137.00-1135.50 and 1134.00

Value Area: 1,133.80 - 1,138.80
This top of the Value Area is good initial support today for any early pullbacks off of a higher opening.

Otherwise we will be watching higher moves to hang up and then later pullback to test this 1138.50 area.

Buy Pivot Target: 1,136.50 - 1,137.50
Here is support at the Buy Pivot target just below 1138.50. -4.25 is 1132.25 but not expecting to see this hard of a pullback today.

Sell Pivot Target: 1,146.50 - 1,145.50
Upper resistance is here and then 1151.00

10 Day "Pit Bull" Moving Average: 1,121.20
Still well above the Pit Bull as the market pulls the average up. We expect that the gap between the closing prices on the futures and the Pit Bull will close up some soon but will remain in a bullish type trend through the election.

Pro Trader's Action
Watch for an average pullback from the early highs today if we see the prices move higher and hang up near the highs stalling the movement.

It will appear as we are going to stagnate again but this should draw in more bulls and prices will move lower to clean out those bullish accumulated stops.

If this scenario does not appear as planned then I have given the alternative above which should be easy to spot.

Good Luck today with your trades and I'll see you in the action. Mohan