“É o preconceito contra a flexibilização que tem conduzido a salários baixos”

[Alfred E. Neuman]

5:59am 10/05/04

IBM upped, H-P downgraded at JP Morgan (HPQ, IBM)

By Emily Church

LONDON (CBS.MW) -- J.P. Morgan Securities overnight raised its rating on IBM (IBM) to "overweight" and downgraded Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) to "neutral." The ratings changes were "primarily driven by our incrementally more constructive view on IBM's enterprise share gains and margin profile, s well as concerns over the consumer PC and printer segments." Shares in IBM were offered higher and H-P offered lower in London, dealers said, but neither was seeing active trade. The broker told clients it expected an "in-line September quarter" at IBM, adding "but we have become incrementally positive on our fourth quarter and calendar 2005 outlook." on H-P, the analysts said: "HP's current enterprise cost structure does not appear equipped to handle the rapid shift away from proprietary UNIX systems toward lower margin industry standard server."

[Alfred E. Neuman]

4 Outubro 2004

[Alfred E. Neuman]

IBM

The stock is oversold and bouncing off the bottom of its trading range so the risk is low. IBM is a good stock right now and could result in a good trade over the next few months. The stock is good for a trade up to its 200-day moving average. If you want to get cute and go fishing on the bottom for oversold stocks why not choose a big fish.

So IBM is curling off the bottom of its range. That is a fact. The market bottomed on August 13th. IBM bottomed the day before hitting its 52-week low. This is an ugly chart and the best way to handle it is to sell into strength. Stocks like IBM and the Semiconductors as a whole are providing good trading chances right now. The better trade is to sell into strength.

Place the stop on IBM at 84.25. That is below its declining 50-day moving average. Odds favor this stock will be a good short a few months after the election. Right now it is good for a trade up to the 200-day moving average of 90.55. The current price is roughly 87.