Albufeira perde 40 mil hóspedes e Lisboa estagna. Gaia é a surpresa do semestre

[Incognitus]

Outra coisa curiosa ... os 241mn QQQs curtossão um MÍNIMO de posições curtas no QQQ dos últimos 12 meses !!!

E para o Cramer falar deles sendo isto verdade, quer dizer que alguém lhe disse esse ponto (senão ele veria o ridículo que era estar a usar um número que não foi menor o ano todo como razão para o rally!).

E se alguém lho disse, é porque existe a probabilidade de ser um amigo dos hedge funds ou corretores ... ou seja, esta teoria está a ser usada para justificar a subida (possivelmente, para a montar) apesar de não fazer sentido.

[Incognitus]

Há uma espécie de erro conceptual na abordagem aos QQQ's. Os QQQ's são usados praticamente como substitutos de futuros, e logo é natural que a posição curta se aproxime da posição longa. Logo dizer que há curtos demais porque metade da emissão está shortada é tão surreal como dizer que tem que subir porque todas as posições longas em futuros têm uma contrapartida curta.

De resto, é uma opinião interessante.

[Ulisses Pereira]

Aqui está ele:

"Know the Thinking Behind This Rally"

By James J. Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
10/4/2004 10:58 AM EDT


"Let's consider how a bull looks at the world. Let's figure out why people can buy without worry, even as they should be worried. Because it is that mindset that is propelling the rally.

1. Last week the downside of the presidency got quantified for a lot of people. A Kerry victory, after his presidential posturing at the debate, no longer seems abysmal. You take the abyss off the table, you can buy with more confidence.

2. Something good happened in Iraq, a victory in a small battle, but a victory nonetheless, in Samarra. Time will tell whether it is just a victory like the myriad victories we had in Vietnam, but after endless negatives, a positive seems at hand.

3. Even the oil bulls know that the per barrel price going from $50 to $60 is a tougher call than $50 to $40. T. Boone Pickens said as much on "Kudlow & Cramer" last week, and the market's taking that prognosticator's vision to heart.

4. PeopleSoft (PSFT:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq - commentary - research) say things are better. This trashed sector had been given up on. But if software's better, who is going to bet against all of the other beleaguered tech sectors? Plus, who owns Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - commentary - research) anymore? Hasn't everyone switched to ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE - commentary - research)? That's what some are betting.

5. The pipeline of near-term earnings looks good, including Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) and General Electric (GE:NYSE - commentary - research), both of which should be standouts.

6. Maybe, just maybe, we have paid our dues at this level and we finally are able to march higher. I thought we would have a 10% rally after the election. I know that I am not alone in that view, but it seems as if it has become consensus -- always scary -- so people are getting ahead of it. Given that tech always has had a seasonal rally right now, why not get on board for both the post-election rally and the early fall tech rally?

7. Finally, 241 millions short sold shares can't be right. That's how many of the 580 million QQQ (QQQ:Amex - commentary - research) shares are sold short. That's too much, way too much. And it has to come down. It can only come down via covering because no one's issuing more QQQ.

So, we have out-of-position short-sellers, an oil price that is too high even for the bulls, a group left for dead that isn't, an election that doesn't scare people and the possibility of something good happening in Iraq at a moment when we have all figured nothing good can happen. That all adds up to a "better than expected" period, until we have more data that can be interpreted negatively. In the meantime, let's get some perf!

There. Nice mindset for the moment.

But I still hear hedgies saying, "Fade the strength." I always ask, "Why?" So far I've gotten no good answers. "

(in www.realmoney.com)

[Incognitus]

Por este? Deve ser interessante.

"Know the Thinking Behind This Rally" do Cramer

Obrigado.