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8:30am 09/24/04 U.S. AUG. DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS FALL 0.5%
8:30am 09/24/04 U.S. AUG. EX-TRANSPORTATION ORDERS UP 2.3%
8:30am 09/24/04 U.S. AUG DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS UP 1.7%
8:30am 09/24/04 U.S. AUG. CORE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS FALL 0.5%
8:30am 09/24/04 U.S. AUG. TRANSPORTATION GOODS ORDERS FALL 6.8%

ECONOMIC REPORT - Durables off 0.5% on weak aircraft demand; Excluding transportation goods, August orders up 2.3%
By Rex Nutting, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 9:02 AM ET Sept. 24, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Orders for new durable goods fell 0.5 percent in August, held in check by a 42.8 percent drop in orders for civilian airplanes, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Excluding a 6.8 percent drop in orders for transportation goods overall, however, last month's durable-good orders rose 2.3 percent, marking the biggest increase since March.

Economists had been expecting total durable-goods orders to fall about 0.2 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

By comparison, orders increased by a revised 1.8 percent in July and by 1.3 percent in June. Orders are up 12.4 percent on a year-over-year basis.

U.S. Treasurys and the dollar weakened after the report, with traders looking at the underlying strength in durables rather than the headline weakness.

"The headline data are in line with expectations, but the ex-transportation orders and the shipments figures are much stronger than expected," said economists at Action Economics.

Orders are a key leading indicator of the nation's economic health. But the monthly numbers can be very volatile, in part because aircraft orders can fluctuate in a big way. In August, for instance, Boeing booked 20 new aircraft orders, down from 75 in July.

Shipments, which reflect current production, rose 1.7 percent during August after gaining 0.4 percent in July. It was also the biggest gain since March.

Shipments thus were up 11.1 percent in the past year to the highest level since April 2000.

Meanwhile, unfilled orders increased 0.3 percent, while inventories rose 0.6 percent.


Breaking down the data

Orders for core capital goods -- excluding both defense goods and civilian aircraft -- fell 0.5 percent in August, but for the past year they were up 12.6 percent. Core capital goods orders are the best monthly indicator of demand for business investment goods.

Outside of transportation, most sectors recorded healthy gains in orders and shipments. Machinery and primary metals, two of the strongest sectors over the past year, were exceptions, lagging in August.

Orders for computers and electronics rose 4.1 percent for August, while shipments increased 1 percent. Most of the gains were in communications equipment.

Orders for machinery were unchanged with shipments falling 1.1 percent.

Orders for fabricated metals rose 4.2 percent, while shipments increased 0.2 percent.

Orders for primary metals dropped 0.5 percent, while shipments increased 1.8 percent.

Orders for electrical equipment increased 1.8 percent, outpacing a gain of 1.4 percent in shipments.

With orders falling 6.8 percent, transportation shipments increased 4.6 percent last month. Orders for motor vehicles increased 5.7 percent, while shipments increased 5 percent.

Orders for defense capital goods increased 4.5 percent, while shipments increased 1.5 percent.