Ao minuto: EUA entram na ofensiva contra o Irão e atacam instalações nucleares

[Camisa Roxa]

General Motors (GM) nearly tripled quarterly earnings after strong truck sales over
the last three months. The company earned $1.62 per share against $0.60 for the
fourth quarter of 2001. Delta Airlines (DAL) lost $2.98 per share, but it was still
an improvement over the $5.98 per share loss following the September 11th, 2001
terrorist attacks. The Labor Department today reported that jobless claims fell by
32,000, which was well under economists expectations .

The performance results for U.S. mutual funds are in for 2002. Unless you were
fortunate enough to own a gold fund, you didn't own one of the big winners. Nine out
of ten of the year's top-performing funds were gold or precious metal funds. The one
other top performer was a bear fund (no surprise there). On the other hand, if you
owned an index fund, or even a managed fund, you were likely to lose money. This
certainly doesn't help the case of the "buy-and-hold" strategy.

The returns of the top five funds (the bear fund was sixth) were all higher than 50
percent. It's no surprise really; gold has historically been a hedge against a market
decline, moving in the opposite direction instead of in tandem. This has been an
important characteristic over the last two years, and with this type of return
potential, I suspect that gold will play an even more significant role in defending
against future bearish environments.

I plotted the Gold and Silver Sector Index (XAU) against the S&P 500 in the chart
below. The visualization of the two indices is staggering. For those who were able to
recognize and accept that we were in a bear market, and for those who were willing to
take action, the reward was great. As you can see, the major market down trends
coincided with major bull trends for gold.

The implication is obvious, but it's the philosophy that's challenging. So many of us
have been taught "buy-and-hold" that it's now part of our culture. Unfortunately, for
better or worse, that philosophy has the potential to devastate you financially. The
people who were buying and holding the S&P 500 lost 37.5 percent over the last three
years. The Nasdaq dropped 67.1 percent for that same period. Still want sit idly and
hold?

Gold or bearish positions do have a role when used properly. While they're more
difficult to "trade" given the inherent bias for the market to move higher, they've
been a blessing to a fortunate few. Look for gold when we enter major downturns, and
if you can't get past the psychological "buy-and-hold" barrier, just tell yourself
that gold and precious metals can also be bought and held.


SUPPORT RESISTANCE
Nasdaq Composite 1420 1455
S&P 500 905 930
Dow Industrials 8625 8820